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China: Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise [Hardcover]

Susan L. Shirk
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (41 customer reviews)


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Book Description

April 16, 2007 0195696948 978-0195306095 First Edition
Once a sleeping giant, China today is the world's fastest growing economy--the leading manufacturer of cell phones, laptop computers, and digital cameras--a dramatic turn-around that alarms many Westerners. But in China: The Fragile Superpower, Susan L. Shirk opens up the black box of Chinese politics and finds that the real danger lies elsewhere--not in China's astonishing growth, but in the deep insecurity of its leaders. China's leaders face a troubling paradox: the more developed and prosperous the country becomes, the more insecure and threatened they feel.
Shirk, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for China, knows many of today's Chinese rulers personally and has studied them for three decades. She offers invaluable insight into how they think--and what they fear. In this revealing book, readers see the world through the eyes of men like President Hu Jintao and former President Jiang Zemin. We discover a fragile communist regime desperate to survive in a society turned upside down by miraculous economic growth and a stunning new openness to the greater world. Indeed, ever since the 1989 pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square and the fall of communism in the Soviet Union, Chinese leaders have been haunted by the fear that their days in power are numbered. Theirs is a regime afraid of its own citizens, and this fear motivates many of their decisions when dealing with the U.S. and other foreign nations. In particular, the fervent nationalism of the Chinese people, combined with their passionate resentment of Japan and attachment to Taiwan, have made relations with these two regions a minefield. It is here, Shirk concludes, in the tangled interactions between Japan, Taiwan, China, and the United States, that the greatest danger lies.
Shirk argues that rising powers such as China tend to provoke wars in large part because other countries mishandle them. Unless we understand China's brittle internal politics and the fears that motivate its leaders, we face the very real possibility of avoidable conflict with China. This book provides that understanding.


Editorial Reviews

Review


"One of the best books I read on China."--Nicholas D. Kristof, The New York Times


"Susan Shirk has written the definitive book at the right time. For those seeking an objective look at the new China, your search is over. The bonus is that Fragile Superpower is as fascinating as it is informative. A great accomplishment."--Madeleine K. Albright, former U.S. Secretary of State


"Ms. Shirk's magisterial book gazes down on China from above."--The Economist


"Revelatory...Shirk has written an important book at an important moment, with the Beijing Olympics approaching and a new Chinese product scandal breaking practically every week. China: Fragile Superpower should change our assessment of China's leadership, which is a lot less stable than many of us thought."-Washington Post Book World


"Shirk's depth of knowledge about China - including personal acquaintance with many of its leaders - makes this book a valuable read."--Christian Science Monitor


"In her extremely convincing book, she shows that there is another emotional side which, driven by unresolved internal tensions, could still push China into a military confrontation."--Financial Times


"Now more than ever we need a realistic approach for dealing with China's rising power. Susan Shirk has an insider's grasp of China's politics and a firm understanding of what makes its leaders tick. China: Fragile Superpower is an important and necessary book."--Brent Scowcroft, former U.S. National Security Advisor


"In this eye-opening work, Susan Shirk details China's incredible economic progress while lifting the rug on its severe internal problems. She has injected a dose of realism into a distorted vision of China which has been promoted by gushing China watchers who focus on Shanghai's skyline."--James Lilley, Former American Ambassador to South Korea and China


"Although other problems dominate the news today, a rising China presents America's greatest long-term challenge. Susan Shirk's excellent book argues compellingly that it also poses the greatest challenge to China's leaders. How they meet this challenge affects not only China, but also the U.S. and, indeed, the world."--William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense


About the Author


Susan L. Shirk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for U.S. relations with China, is Director of the University of California's Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, and she is a professor at UC-San Diego's Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies. A leading authority on China, she has been visiting that country since 1971, meeting with top Chinese officials, and has written numerous books and articles on this subject, including pieces that have appeared in The Washington Post, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 336 pages
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA; First Edition edition (April 16, 2007)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0195696948
  • ISBN-13: 978-0195306095
  • ASIN: 0195306090
  • Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (41 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #220,777 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Susan L. Shirk deftly shows the dilemmas of the Chinese Communist Party. Richard H. Elfers  |  11 reviewers made a similar statement
The book is very easy to read. Lemas Mitchell  |  12 reviewers made a similar statement
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
52 of 57 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars China at Times Its Own Worst Enemy July 9, 2007
Format:Hardcover
Susan Shirk gives her readers some useful tools to better assess the future behavior of a fast-resurging China after being "humiliated" for a century and a half (pp. 153 - 55, 185 - 87). Shirk clearly explains that Chinese communist power has two faces. China wants to be seen as behaving responsibly to foster economic growth and social stability (pp. 105 - 139). Shirk correctly states that actions rather than words will make it more credible. Establishing this reputation requires China to accommodate its neighbors, to be a team player in multinational organizations, and to use economic ties to make friends (pp. 109, 199, 223, 257 - 61).

In case of a major crisis, especially one involving Taiwan, Japan or the United States, China could show its other face by acting irresponsibly due to the absence of effective checks and balances of the Chinese system. Party leaders could recklessly play the nationalistic card again as they did with Taiwan in 1996 or with Japan in 2005 if they need to look strong domestically with other leaders, the mass public, and the military (pp. 10 -12, 43, 63, 69, 77, 139, 151, 173, 179 - 80, 186 - 90, 197, 205, 219).

The Communist Party has bet on jingoism since the 1990s because communism in China is a dying ideology in which almost no Chinese believes (pp. 11, 63 - 64, 145, 148, 164 - 70, 186). The Party implausibly claims that ordinary Chinese are unworthy of Western democracy because their country, unlike India, does not have religion to manage them responsibly (p. 53). Chinese leaders know that Chinese nationalists can turn against the Party if they appear too weak to deal with foreign pressures (pp. 61, 66, 173, 180).

Economic interdependence has had a somewhat moderating effect on the relationship of China with the outside world, including Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. (pp. 24, 96, 145 - 46, 190, 195, 233, 241, 247). Due to their fear of widespread instability and their lack of political legitimacy, Party leaders, however, have not displayed much courage in taking unpopular measures such as enforcing intellectual property rights or stopping currency manipulation in trading abroad (pp. 26 - 27, 53 - 54, 60, 73 - 74). Chinese leaders are well aware that the increased protectionism in the U.S. against the fast-growing trade deficit with China and the rampant piracy of U.S. products in China are not politically sustainable, especially in case of a majority change in Washington in 2009 (pp. 25 - 26, 248). At the same time, Shirk correctly points out that the ongoing fiscal profligacy of the U.S. is weakening the country at the profit of China (pp. 26, 249).

Of all China's challenges, the need for "social stability" overrules all other considerations, even it means sacrificing long-term diplomatic objectives for short-term domestic political gains (pp. 38, 52 - 54, 109, 148, 183 - 87, 197, 224, 234, 254 - 55). For the Chinese communist leaders and their families, losing power could result in the loss of their possessions or even their death (pp. 7 - 9). To keep its authoritarian grip on power, the Communist Party has articulated a three-pronged policy (p. 39):

1) Avoid public leadership splits

Shirk gives a useful overview of the "selectorate," the group of Party members who have the power to choose the leaders, and the modus operandi of the Party (pp. 39 - 52). The Communist Party is not known for its openness in framing domestic and foreign policies (pp. 43 - 44). Patronage is essential for keeping the Party in power, which feeds an endemic corruption from which many communist bigwigs enrich themselves at the expense of ordinary Chinese (pp. 60, 68 - 69). Party leaders learn from the Tiananmen fiasco that destabilizing internal dissent can undermine the Party's grip on power (pp. 48, 53, 162). Keeping elite contests for power hidden from the public is increasingly difficult as the audience-driven media are testing the limits on what can be reported (pp. 39, 50, 52, 55, 78, 183). Although China is a still a long way from having free mass media, resourceful Chinese increasingly give the Communist Party a hard time for censoring "undesirable news (pp. 82 - 83)."

2) Prevent large-scale social unrest

Shirk demonstrates with conviction that Communist China's obsession with internal stability paradoxically makes the Party very sensitive to public opinion due to the lack of any democratic institution to allow ordinary Chinese to express themselves peacefully (pp. 52 - 53, 66). Shirk overviews with mastery the multiple possible threats to one-party-rule and which means the Party uses to either neutralize or reduce these threats (pp. 52 - 69). Paradoxically, the more developed and rich China becomes, the more insecure and threatened Communist Party leaders feel (p. 5).

3) Keep the People's Liberation Army on the side of the Party

Unlike their predecessors, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, Communist Party leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao are less politically secure and have a greater need to keep the military satisfied to safeguard them from domestic rebellion (pp. 46, 73, 77, 158 - 60, 202). Communist Party leaders seem to have a harder time saying no to the military demands for weaponry buildups and aggressive policies (pp. 70, 75 - 76, 222 - 23). The senior leadership of the PLA uses the Taiwan issue as the paramount factor for getting more "toys" approved (p. 74). By covering foreign policy, audience-driven media are making it harder for Communist Party leaders not to treat foreign policy as domestic politics (pp. 78 - 104, 140 - 254). Furthermore, history is not on the side of China because rising powers are likely to provoke war (pp. 4, 9 - 10, 210 - 11, 219, 243 - 45, 261 - 69). All of these factors undermine the credibility of the "peaceful rise" that Jintao - Wen Jiabao have promoted since 2002 (pp. 108 - 09, 252).

To summarize, China's behavior cannot be correctly understood without a proper grasp of the tectonic forces that have molded the country's history, geography, and culture.
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Understanding China August 2, 2007
Format:Hardcover
Few fields of academic endeavor are as determinedly pc as the study of communist China. China academics and intelligence analysts over the years have strived with some success to portray the communist regime in a more benign light than probably is warranted.

Fortunately Susan Shirk''s book--the best work yet to appear on contemporary China-- provides a balanced and thoughtful perspective on the contradictory impulses driving Chinese leadership behavior.As Shirk ably documents, pressures of rapid economic transformatiion, fraying political controls and rabid nationalist sentiment pose difficult challenges for the regime, increasing the potential for conflict with the United States. Shirk pleads for a U.S. China policy based on a better understanding of these constraints, both to lower the risk of war and to improve prospects of Sino-U,S, collaboration on issues of global concern.

This is a perfectly good argument as far as it goes and is relevant not just to China. Russia --economically emergent and increasingly nationalistic-- represents a comparable problem for U.S. policy.The U.S. penchant for Russia-bashing needlessly provokes Russian leaders and publics, heightening East-West tensions and clouding the outlook for peace and security in Europe.

Perfect understanding, of course is not a sure-fire recipe for conflict- avoidance. Washington can "lavish respect on China's leaders" (in the author's words) but there is a host of contentious issues on which it must pursue its own priorities: trade imbalances, contaminated food exports, software piracy, China's military build-up, Taiwan security, massive Chinese espionage operations in the United States, human rights violations and more. Hostilities with China, while obviously not desirable , could break out nonetheless. Following Shirk's line of analysis, should China emerge the clear loser, the regime would suffer loss of legitimacy and possibly collapse altogether. Whether anything better would emerge in its place, though, is an open question.
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Easily 5 Stars! July 5, 2007
Format:Hardcover
It's a beautifully written book by Ms. Susan Shirk. Her credentials as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton administration responsible for relations with China speak for themselves. Her understanding of the interrelation between domestic and international principles is well highlighted.

This book captures the fickleness of the Chinese government in their need to suppress public distraught, and how their desire to raise nationalist views has been counterproductive to their international mission of keeping foreign partners from viewing them as a dangerously rising power.

She gives you the facts of China's past and current state of development and reviews the United States' and other countries' positions on the rising power, and allows you to determine for yourself whether China will be a real danger or a humble superpower willing to lend a hand for the betterment of the international sector.

This is an absolutely wonderful book that simply has to be read more than once.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars The best reference book on China's rise
This book is one of the best books on studying China's rise. both its achievements and social challenges. Read more
Published 3 months ago by Xuecheng Liu
3.0 out of 5 stars Too long
The author could have say the same thing in a shorter and more accurate version. The assumptions are interesting and leads to new reflexion on China, still the books becomes... Read more
Published 4 months ago by Gervais Lavoie
4.0 out of 5 stars China the unstable Juggernaut:
Susan Shirk's book "China Fragile Superpower" is quite interesting. She points out that China's alleged peaceful rise as an economic world power is on shaky ground due to internal... Read more
Published 10 months ago by BlackJack21
2.0 out of 5 stars Dated, boring and superficial
Couldn't continue after reading a few pages. I kept looking for something new in the book
but couldn't. Read more
Published on May 18, 2011 by Bill Stones
3.0 out of 5 stars Is it doom or boom for The Communist Party?
If you only read the title of this book and had to guess what it is about, you would probably assume this book is about how China is a fragile superpower due its unstable political... Read more
Published on May 12, 2011 by Erez Davidi
4.0 out of 5 stars Fragile regime, not superpower
Excellent analysis of current PRC situation, but not what I expected from the title. It's not really about China as an emerging superpower, but as its subtitle says, it's about... Read more
Published on November 12, 2010 by Howard Newcombe
4.0 out of 5 stars Five star book with one star deducted for Russian omission
An outstanding analysis and presentation by a China professional.

Only problem is that Chinese relations with Russia are completely omitted. Read more
Published on November 4, 2010 by Wikileaker
3.0 out of 5 stars Imperfect Yet Intriguing
This is a definite pro-China book, but this fact does not detract from the author's long experience and insight into China. Read more
Published on August 8, 2010 by A. Morillo
1.0 out of 5 stars What I see is egoism
The author has not let down its American people. The objectivity and cogency may lose since it taking a side for its own country apparently. Read more
Published on May 24, 2010 by Andy
4.0 out of 5 stars A valuable book about Chinese politics in the new millenium
Susan Shirk was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for relations with China in the Clinton administration and she is now director of the University of California's... Read more
Published on February 2, 2010 by Baraniecki Mark Stuart
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