China's Futures [Hardcover]

James Ogilvy (Author), Peter Schwartz (Author), Joe Flower (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0787952001 | ISBN-13: 978-0787952006 | Publication Date: January 2000 | Edition: 1

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come.
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"...anyone concerned with the future of the region is likely to find this a useful read." (Long Range Planning, Vol.33, 2000)

Review

"It still amazes me how well the scenario process works in getting the practitioner to a place not accessed by other strategic thought processes. Whether the reader is a China novice or expert, this collection of scenarios will expand one's strategic thought horizons." —Tom Davis, vice president and chief economist, Motorola

"This book provides a very interesting look at possible future Chinas. Three scenarios, all plausible, suggest how very different the outcomes could be." —A.W. Marshall, advisor for net assessment, United States Office of the Secretary of Defense

"What makes China so interesting-and so unpredictable-is that opposite scenarios often have almost equal plausibility. Anyone trying to divine China's future will find this study both provocative and informative." —Orville Schell, longtime observer of China, author, and dean of the Graduate School of Journalism, University of California at Berkeley

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 192 pages
• Publisher: Jossey-Bass; 1 edition (January 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0787952001
• ISBN-13: 978-0787952006
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.7 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.1 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #477,105 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Scenario Planning at Work on China, July 31, 2000

By 

Azlan Adnan - See all my reviews

This review is from: China's Futures (Hardcover)

China is the world's third largest economy and America's biggest trading partner in Asia. The path China takes over the coming decades will have a profound impact on business and the economy all around the world. The authors of this book are neither futurists nor experts on China, but practitioners of the art of scenario planning.

In this book, Ogilvy and Schwartz draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China. They present three versions of what China's future might look like and what that will mean for the governments and companies that will be doing business with or in China. Their scenarios are in an absorbing narrative form, like histories written twenty years from now. They explain the predetermined elements, assumptions, and variables that underlie each scenario. They also draw implications and make suggestions about how companies can use each scenario to plan business strategy.

The insights into China's future provided in this book will help global business managers, strategists, diplomats and government policy makers prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.

James A. Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz (1946- ) are partners in Global Business Network, a consulting and research firm. They are responsible for the widespread use of scenario planning in business, a process-blending research, trend analysis and well-tutored imagination-that they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View. Joe Flower is a professional writer in San Francisco.

See also my review of THE NEW SILK ROAD: Secrets of Doing Business in China Today by John B. Stuttard.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars China's Futures : A Review, December 7, 2000

By 

L. Morris (Hong Kong Hong Kong) - See all my reviews

This review is from: China's Futures (Hardcover)

I have lost count of how many books and articles I have read on the past, present and future of China. Without doubt, this is the most readable, the most concise and the most word-economical of any.

The authors claim no special knowledge of China but apply general scenario techniques to the situation and come up with sensible and understandable alternative futures.

As a side benefit, the book contains a lot of socio-economic data.

My only complaint..I find the conclusions slightly pessimistic but can't fault the logic of reaching them

5.0 out of 5 stars Everyone who wants to set up a firm in China should read!, July 2, 2002

By A Customer

This review is from: China's Futures (Hardcover)

This book is full of contents while it is easily understandable and fun. After reading this book, you'll have images of China in the futures in your mind that help you plan your busines strategies pretty well. Therefore, those who want to set up a firm in China are highly suggested to read it.