China's New Rulers: The Secret Files (New York Review Books Collections) [Hardcover]

Andrew J. Nathan (Author), Bruce Gilley (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: October 2002

This provocative book draws on secret primary documents to reveal the inside story of the rise to power — and plans for the future — of the seven to nine men who in October 2002 will take over China’s Politburo Standing Committee, the highest power center in the country. This "fourth generation" of leaders — after Mao Zedong and his colleagues, then Deng Xiaoping, and finally Jiang Zemin and Li Peng — is expected not only to push China toward a market economy but also to create much stronger ties with the United States. The book’s firsthand accounts reveal the radical reforms this new generation plans to bring to the notoriously entrenched Chinese political system.

Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

Again breaching the secrecy enveloping leadership politics in China, the authors reveal the jockeying behind the retirement of Jiang Zemin and succession of Hu Jintao to be ordained at this month's congress of the Chinese Communist Party. When China specialists Nathan and Gilley disclosed documents about top-level power struggles in The Tiananmen Papers (2001), Chinese officialdom unconvincingly denied their authenticity. It may well be dismissive again, but the authors' explanation of this book's provenance, and moreover, the detail of its contents, create confidence in its accuracy. Nathan and Gilley base their text on that of a Chinese writer whom they trust, Zong Hairen (a pseudonym). Zong's material in turn relies on personnel reports on seven men who will likely compose the most powerful body in the Chinese political system, the Politburo Standing Committee. The promoted members' biographies, patrons, personalities, and policy inclinations become less mysterious in Nathan's and Gilley's construction, which although undramatic in style is quite as informative as an intelligence assessment. A select group of readers, such as students, businesspeople, or diplomats, will be keen for this glimpse into the new leaders' views on China's future direction. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Review

"A remarkable book. . .the best guide we shall get...Essential reading for anyone involved with China in the broadest sense." -- Sunday Telegraph

"China's New Rulers has enduring value because of its vivid picture of the party's procedures in selecting new leaders." -- Lucian Pye, Foreign Affairs Magazine, Jan-Feb 2003

"The editors are genuine, certified, Grade A sinologists. . .a contribution to understanding China." -- Times (London)

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 150 pages
• Publisher: New York Review of Books; 1st Prinitng, November 2002 edition (October 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1590170466
• ISBN-13: 978-1590170465
• Product Dimensions: 8.6 x 5.8 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,576,171 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, read author blogs, and more.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars New Rulers: A Consensus Team for Jiang, May 25, 2003

By 

Charles F. Hawkins - See all my reviews

This review is from: China's New Rulers: The Secret Files (New York Review Books Collections) (Hardcover)

The value of this book is severalfold. It gives intriguing hints at the nature of top level Chinese decision-making processes. It contains excellent biographical sketches of top leadership in the Chinese Communist Party -- new and old. And it reveals relationships among the various players that is invaluable in attempting to fathom the workings of a secretive government that sees its relationship with the United States as the core of its foreign policy.

Even with insider information (the secret files), it is always risky business to predict the future, and authors Andrew Nathan and Bruce Gilley are surly aware of this. The fact that they got most of their predictions right isn't as important as examining the ones they got wrong, and trying to figure out what may have happened.

Jiang Zemin stepped down as general secretary and president -- as predicted -- but stayed on as chairman of the powerful Centeral Military Commission. This event was not foreseen. What happened?

Nathan and Gilley forecast that the Standing Committee of the Politburo would consist of seven members. That group today stands at nine. (The PRC constitution allows for seven to nine members on the PBSC.)

One of the seven predicted to attain Standing Committee status, Li Ruihuan, was not chosen. Li, a reform-minded member of the previous Standing Committee, didn't make the cut for this one, even though he would have been young enough to serve another term before "mandatory" retirement at age 70. Credit Jiang Zemin for his ouster.

Three unexpected members were chosen -- Huang Ju, Jia Qinglin, and Wu Guanzheng. Nathan and Gilley discuss these men (and many others) as well as the leaders they predicted would rise to power.

There are brighter red stars than Huang Ju. Jiang has mentored him since Shanghai days in the 1980s. A former mayor and party chief of Shanghai, his daughter is married to a pro-Taiwan newspaperman from San Francisco.

Jia Qingling, a former Beijing party chief, was the best man at Jiang's wedding, and saved by Jiang after a corruption scandal involving Jia's wife.

Wu Guanzheng is secretary of the important Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC. An ally of Jiang, he has close links with Hu Jintao as well.

The new members of the PBSC that were correctly predicted by Nathan and Gilley are:

Hu Jintao, Mr. "Zero Defects" is China's first "resume president." Hu used force in Tibet in 1989 two months before Tiananmin, creating the precedent for the June 4 massacre. Jiang labeled him the "core of the fourth generation."

Wen Jiabao is a protégé of Zhu Rongji and supported by anti-Jiang factions. As premier of the State Council, he will oversee economic reforms. A capable administrator, he has been called "most dazzling."

Wu Bangguo. A Jiang man from Shanghai days, Wu oversaw the Three Gorges dam project. He is said to have a "common touch" and is cautious about reform.

Zeng Qinghong has been mentored by and is the former personal secretary to Jiang Zemin. Zeng is perhaps the most influential member of the Standing Committee, and a possible challenger to Hu Jintao.

Li Changchun is supported by Jiang, but lost the premier's position because of purported missteps in Guangdong. Still, he was able to solve problems in the province and bring it in line with Beijing's policies in the 1990s, making it a favorite of Jiang and where he chose to announce his "Three Represents" campaign in 2000.

Luo Gan. Mr. "Go To" when there's trouble, Luo controls the security apparatus of PRC, including the People's Armed Police. He did Li Peng's bidding at Tiananmen.

At least seven of the nine are Jiang's men.

One of the interesting, if not amazing things that the authors show is that the succession to power of the "fourth generation" leadership in China is the most orderly transition of power in China's history. No small claim. Still, it remains to be seen how these men will govern and engage in foreign affairs.

None of the nine have any direct military experience. Only one has studied outside China (Luo Gan), and only one has had international travel (Hu Jintao). The preceeding leadership "traveled extensively, made diplomatic visits, attended summits, and entertained a ceaseless stream of visitors from abroad."

To varying degrees each man is well-grounded in domestic policy, and they are poised to work together as a consensus team under the watchful eye of Jiang. As Nathan and Gilley point out, and as many China-watchers agree, "stability" will be a key word in making policy at home and abroad.

Last year, some of my Chinese colleagues in Beijing attempted to forecast the future too. "There are others besides Hu Jintao," one high-ranking PLA officer told me. But he missed the mark more than "China's New Rulers" did.

If you're interested in the inner workings of the CCP, and the relationship between different levels and persons of power in Beijing, you'll appreciate the information this book conveys.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Look Inside Zhongnanhai, August 24, 2003

By 

Devon Miller "Devon Miller" (Virginia) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: China's New Rulers: The Secret Files (New York Review Books Collections) (Hardcover)

This book is great for anyone from a curious reader to an "expert sinologist" (who rarely know what they are talking about). While I would never advocate accepting any foreign policy text-especially one on China-without serious skepticism, I think this is an overall accurate look at the inside.
As many of the other reviewers have noted, this book became dated as soon as it went to print, but that is not as big of a fault as one might imagine. With a quick glance at the news source of your choice (or the reviewer a little further down the page) will bring you up to date quite easily.
My one disagreement worthy of mention is his definition of the world multipolarity- "many nations having a say in world affairs." While I agree that is what American pundits mean by the term, I would argue that Chinese politicians mean something slightly different. Praise for multipolarity is actually an effort to tie the US down to the UN (where China of course wields a veto) and other means of international oversight of US foreign policy decisions. There is a subtle difference between the meaning in the this word in the lexicons of the leaders of the two nations. America means it much as the authors describe it, but China means it as constrain America.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Read, September 2, 2003

By 

Chris (Amherst, MA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: China's New Rulers: The Secret Files (New York Review Books Collections) (Hardcover)

This book is an excellent read for anyone who wants to know about China's rulers. Granted the "secret files" in the title made me a little skeptical, but after reading the book and reading other articles as well, this book feels "real." It will be interesting to see how the new leaders guide China and how they will react to the challenges that come up.

To go along with this book, I recommend James C.F. Wang's "Contemporary Chinese Politics," the latest edition.