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China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy
 
 
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China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy [Hardcover]

Minxin Pei (Author)
3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)


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Book Description

0674021959 978-0674021952 March 31, 2006

The rise of China as a great power is one of the most important developments in the twenty-first century. But despite dramatic economic progress, China’s prospects remain uncertain. In a book sure to provoke debate, Minxin Pei examines the sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party’s reform strategy—pursuing pro-market economic policies under one-party rule.

Pei casts doubt on three central explanations for why China’s strategy works: sustained economic development will lead to political liberalization and democratization; gradualist economic transition is a strategy superior to the “shock therapy” prescribed for the former Soviet Union; and a neo-authoritarian developmental state is essential to economic take-off. Pei argues that because the Communist Party must retain significant economic control to ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail.

The lack of democratic reforms in China has led to pervasive corruption and a breakdown in political accountability. What has emerged is a decentralized predatory state in which local party bosses have effectively privatized the state’s authority. Collusive corruption is widespread and governance is deteriorating. Instead of evolving toward a full market economy, China is trapped in partial economic and political reforms.

Combining powerful insights with empirical research, China’s Trapped Transition offers a provocative assessment of China’s future as a great power.

(20070101)


Editorial Reviews

Review

Minxin Pei is unquestionably one of this country's best informed and most insightful analysts of contemporary Chinese politics. This well-written, provocative book­-a sobering picture of a China beset by severe social problems yet resistant to the political reforms needed to resolve them-­directly challenges much of the conventional wisdom about the rise of China. It is certain to be welcomed by scholars, policymakers, and general readers alike.
--Elizabeth J. Perry, author of Patrolling the Revolution (20060531)

In this superb work, Pei asks penetrating questions about the course of China's development. He offers a very effective critique of the gradualist approach to reform, explaining that the problems China faces are not incidental to but an integral part of that approach. Powerfully argued, this is a major contribution sure to stir debate.
--Joseph Fewsmith, author of China since Tiananmen (20060612)

Pei's notion of a 'trapped transition' will prove valuable­-and not just for its application to China. It serves to challenge the deterministic and evolutionary assumptions behind much of the literature on democratization.
--Philippe C. Schmitter, European University Institute (20060901)

Not only does Minxin Pei make the case that the Chinese reforms are partial and self-limiting, but he also calls into question the hopeful view that rapid growth will ultimately generate political reform. His important book has implications for current debates about the United States-China relationship, but will also force a rethinking of the broader comparative literature on the developmental state.
--Stephan Haggard, co-author of The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (20061001)

Thought-provoking...Mr. Pei argues, persuasively, that China's gradualism, often favourably contrasted with the former Soviet Union's flirtation with radical reforms, is as much a political as an economic strategy.
--Martin Wolf (Financial Times )

Pei does not have much time for the optimistic assumption that democracy in China is just around the corner...For Pei, there is little chance of dethroning the Communist party behemoth in spite of the heroic efforts of the dissidents and democracy campaigners.
--Chris Patten (Financial Times )

As Pei sees it, big trouble looms [for China]. Continued progress toward a more modern economy will require the establishment of a true rule of law, which in turn will require 'institutional curbs' on governmental action. These two limitations on power are incompatible with the party's insistence on dominating society. So long as the current political framework remains in place, then, China is effectively, and perhaps fatally, trapped in its state of transition...[China's Trapped Transition presents a] comprehensive and, I believe, compelling understanding of present-day China.
--Gordon G. Chang (Commentary )

[An] acute and insightful examination of China's ongoing transition.
--Chris Hunter (China Economic Review )

Pei's most significant contribution lies in his lucid exposition of the causal links between the structural logic of China's "illiberal adaptation" and its manifest socio-economic and political consequences...He has arguably--like Elvin before him--raised the level of debate and altered the terms of engagement.
--Richard Baum (China Journal )

About the Author

Minxin Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 Professor of Government and Roberts Fellow, and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 308 pages
  • Publisher: Harvard University Press (March 31, 2006)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0674021959
  • ISBN-13: 978-0674021952
  • Product Dimensions: 9.8 x 6.3 x 1.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,489,198 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

 

Customer Reviews

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Average Customer Review
3.4 out of 5 stars (5 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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16 of 22 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars A Great Resource, December 7, 2006
By 
Mukeli (Boston, MA) - See all my reviews
This review is from: China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Hardcover)
Pei is well known is his field for writing about the political divide between the CCP and the Chinese people. This book does an excellent job in covering the realities of the economic and political situations within China. The vast majority of the book is actually quite an easy read, but the beginning of the book can be challenging for those that aren't use to conceptual models (hence 4 stars).

I highly recommend that those interested in China read this book. While I do not agree with specific points, Pei's general ideas are sound and provide lots to think about. China's government (read the CCP) must withdraw from the market if the economic reforms laid down by Deng Xiaoping are to continue and be successful. However, as Pei points out, by withdrawing from the markets, the CCP will lose a lot of its hard power.
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25 of 37 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars A book for those who actually know the ABCs of China, May 2, 2006
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This review is from: China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Hardcover)
For those who's never been to China or lived there, this book might be a little out of their scope. Afterall, the only things you hear in the news are how if Walmart were a country, it'd be China's 7th biggest trading partner, or how Intel is building their fabs in China (away from Shanghai towards inland to further reduce cost). For those people, go read on how China will take over the world economically by the middle of this century and believe what you want.

For those who Does have any clue about China's political system is keenly aware that the entire Chinese economy is still tied into the political system, and that is just a time bomb waiting to explode. If the CCP were to collapse, half of the country's wealth will be exported and rest will go down with the defunct banking system. This book digs into the depth of the current geo-political situation, and is so accurate that the People's Congress is taking note and implementing changes (albeit slowly) previously pointed out by the author. If you want to know the REAL story behind the Chinese economic system and where it'll truely head in the next several decades, this is THE book to read. Not some "economic model that projects blah, blah, blah and threaten's US's position in the world," where the author is totally cluelss of all fundamentals of the Chinese economy other than published economic numbers.
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23 of 44 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars Academic's trapped mentality: The limits of linear ideology, July 6, 2006
This review is from: China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Hardcover)
Reading this book is almost like reading "China's democratic future" all over again. It is all too familiar how normative idealism ruins positive analysis in these two books. The difference is: this one is disguised by more theoretical tools, the other one was an outright shout for a democratic China.

Democracy is a beautiful linear process that can be attributed to "growth determinism". Once the per capita income reaches $1000, then just "smile, you are on candid camera". The development theory is summarized by Pei as all about how growth determines democratization, and the evidence of growth not causing democracy is easily dismissed by seeing it as a short term phenomenon (rising prosperity makes political monopoly more valueable). If this logic is valid, one can also argue that the state's decentralized corrupted "grabbing hand" can also be a short term phenomenon for the long term reform. It's all about your starting point of analysis.

The pre-determined linear ideology of Pei leads to another glaring flaw: he fails to analyze the cause of democracy, as if what appears to be a correlation between growth and democracy is the causation. Douglass North is frequently quoted in this book, yet the major feat of North is: he starts with the cause of economic growth, not a linear ideology from the "prison of one culture". Given this, the discussion of gradual reform and shock therapy is a "fake issue" and a major distraction. More important, "trapped transition" is more a normative tautology than a useful analytical concept. When Pei wears a pair of dark glasses with an idealistic picture in mind, what else can he see except problems? What else can readers experience except his troubled mentality in dealing with China's achievements and problems (the whole book simply boils down to an ad hoc pattern of "on the one hand...on the other hand...")? As for the critical question on "why China is doing great if everything is really so dark?" Pei brushed aside the challenge with only a few paragraphs of guessing work. If one uses John Rawls' "justice principles" for the reality in the US, he can also argue what we see is a "trapped democracy" which is "for the few people, from the few people, and by the few people". And he can also get a reviewer to hail "trapped democracy" as a new concept for the satisfaction of self-congratulation.

Put it simply, when the target of analysis is totally Chinese, Pei is still obsessed with "Leninism" and the cold war ideology. As a Chinese, he didn't even talk about Chinese culture; as a US educated, he failed to start from the realistic perspective of "public choice" (rather than use it selectively to support his normative conclusion). If social scientists are all moral scientists, you think all research can still be fun?

It is really sad to see another serious Chinese scholar again fell into the one culture linear ideological trap. Assuming this book starts with the cause and reason of democracy, with the employment of available theories and a peaceful mind of multi-culturalism, we might see more fruitful results. One quick example is to analyze how each reform approach is actually structured by the contextual reality and how the state evolves and functions as a grabbing hand or a helping hand (instead of asserting gradual reform leads to a predatory state, which is nothing more than an ad hoc analysis); Other questions can be asked include: Are those "copy and paste" democracy (Taiwan, Mexico, the Philippines, India) and "plug and play" democracy (Iraq) actually doing well in economic growth and government cleanness? What is really beyond the simple installation of democracy? Will culture fail in "making democracy work"? What is behind the actual enforcement of democratic institutions?

The development of cognitive science and cultural psychology may be helpful for being self-conscious of the intellectual thinking trap, but the reality of research sociology may not be really in accord with a more sensible research direction. I wish I am wrong on this.
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Inside This Book (learn more)
Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
decentralized predation, shichanghua jincheng, xiagang zhigong zhuangkuang, gradualist economic reform, selling government positions, yanjiu haogao, telecom service sector, local mafia group, developmental autocracy, grain procurement system, protecting organized crime, governance deficits, new exit options, trapped transition, state predation, mafia states, state incapacitation, yanjiu cankao, city commercial banks, reserve cadres, yanjiu baogao, village elections, residual rents, peasant burdens, predatory state
Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
China Telecom, Democratizing China, Standing Committee, China Unicorn, East Asian, State Council, China's Mounting Governance Deficits, Soviet Union, Central Committee, Falun Gong, Transitions Get Trapped, Organic Law, Transforming the State, Hong Kong, China Mobile, Eastern Europe, Supreme People's Court, Zhao Ziyang, Cultural Revolution, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Health, United States, China Nctcom, Minsheng Bank, National Audit Administration
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