Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning [Paperback]

Raymond S. Nickerson (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 2004 | ISBN-10: 0805848991 | ISBN-13: 978-0805848991 | Edition: 1

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists.

Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Editorial Reviews

Review

This book is an insightful lesson on how one's worldview affects one's thinking, even in certain mathematical applications.

—Journal of Psychology and Christianity

...the book brings together many diverse sources and results on a host of topics....it could serve as a useful starting point for a new researcher beginning a study of some aspect of quantitative reasoning.
—Technometrics

...for the newcomer the book provides an excellent introduction to this field of research, and the connoisseur will appreciate the book as a useful handbook allowing for quick refreshers of the many empirical results already available.
—Biometrics

I liked this book a lot....Nickerson has done a fine job in putting together coherently a wide range of material...this book is remarkably well timed.
—Howard Wainer, Ph.D.
Distinguished Research Scientist, National Board of Medical Examiners

This book presents a more inclusive report of the literature on probabilistic reasoning, without a specific application in mind, allowing for both broader coverage of the field, and for deeper exploration of inherently interesting and provocative reasoning and problems....The quality of scholarship...is impressive, with...classic citations as well as a diversity of perspectives representing current thinking on the problems....Business school students would probably greatly benefit from this book....As a researcher, I find this book to be a very useful collection of the research on probabilistic reasoning, and would absolutely want a copy for my own library....I could imagine using this text in a graduate or upper level undergraduate course on judgment and decision making.
—Julie Downs, Ph.D.
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University

It is comprehensive in its approach to scholarship and does not choose a single point ofview from among the usual ones. Instead, it offers wise and clever comments on the many different perspectives that exist.
—Jonathan Baron, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania

Product Details

• Paperback: 472 pages
• Publisher: Psychology Press; 1 edition (May 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0805848991
• ISBN-13: 978-0805848991
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,797,422 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Useful broad account of psychology research into how people think about chance, May 27, 2007

By 

David J. Aldous "gentleman scholar" (Alameda, CA USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning (Paperback)

Useful and interesting book for several reasons. Style is midway between popular science and scholars writing for other scholars. The initial chapters recount history and the basic frequentist/Bayesian/etc philosophies of probability. The later chapters describe what experiments by psychologists like Tversky have shown about the way people think about probability -- basically, that people are illogical in different but roughly predictable ways in different contexts. The book touches upon many different topics, and gives around 1000 references, so it's an invaluable resource for seeing the big picture of what scholars have thought about, and for leads into the research literature. Downside: description of research is (to my taste) often rather vague and the author's verbal discussion is rather bland -- as if written by a committee -- rather than crisp statements followed by critical analysis.