Customer Reviews

Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards on a Populated Earth: Computer Modeling

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This book by Planetary Scientist John Lewis includes a diskette with a Monte Carlo program to run simulations of Earth impacts over time. The book is basically a handbook for the software with a wide range of physical information about NEOs, impacts and effects on the human population. An excellent resource covering physics, chemistry and environment. I can recommend it to anyone studying the possible influence of impacts on civilisation. Over thousands of years airburst events like Tunguska turn out to be important sources of fatalities and yet they leave little or no physical evidence so information about the danger is unlikely to be reliably passed from generation to generation.

Note that the program requires GW-BASIC to run To run the program in a higher version of BASIC such as Quick Basic you will need to convert it from binary to ASCII format from within GW-BASIC. To do this load the program in GW-BASIC (F3 path/filename.BAS) then save it with the ASCII option set (F4 path/new_filename.BAS , A ). This is all subject to the copyright conditions of course.

The text is an excellent and scholarly treatment of the subject. Itis very detailed, quite factual, thoughtfully constructed and verythought provocating. It generates a lot of interest in the includedMonte Carlo impact/fatality model.

Unfortunately, the attached model program is very difficult to use. It is written in native GW-BASIC which can only be read by GW-Basic running under DOS (not a Windows shell). One needs to find a copy of GWBASIC and a DOS boot disk to convert HAZARD5.BAS to ASCII format. Once in ASCII it will run in the more common QBASIC in Windows. In short, it presents an unnecessary hassle. Indeed, there were no instructions to do the conversion and Michael Paine and his web site .... came to the rescue with detailed instructions and some refinements to the model.

Dr. Lewis makes a compelling case for the reappraisal of comet and asteroid impacts. This book is lucid, sharp, and, well, SCARY. I strongly recommend it to all readers curious about these potentially cataclysmic events; when you understand the energy involved in one of these impacts, and the effects on human populations it becomes clear that we are currently just as vulnerable as the dinosaurs were 65 million years ago. I also recommend Rain of Iron and Ice for the popular science audience. It is an equally compelling, and also entertaining, read. Worth every penny.

Of all the hazards facing Earth, impacts are the most dangerous. Their effects can be devastating over the entire surface of the planet.

I enjoyed the comparison of simulation results to historical records and the attention to economic and public policy issues of warning, interdiction, and asteroid & comet search strategies. David Egge's paintings (in the color section) are awesome.

Keep your eye on the sky!