The Coming Oil Crisis [Paperback]

C. J. Campbell (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0906085225 | ISBN-13: 978-0906085226 | Publication Date: April 1, 2004

The history and current status of the important oil industry are reviewed in this study of the geological origins of oil and gas. Assessed are how much oil and gas has been produced, what remains in known fields, and what is yet to be found, with attention to how to properly interpret published numbers, many of which are false or distorted by vested interests. The contention is made that the growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The book further argues that the coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"The Coming Oil Crisis" is magnificent. I think it is the most powerful resource we have thus far. It is a wonderful mix of fact and compassion, and the odd excursion into autobiography adds to, rather than detracts from, its authority, and makes it that much more understandable. -- C.Richardson, Central Sydney Community Transport Group, Australia

If ever the precisely appropriate book turned up at exactly the opportune moment, this is it. During 1997, an academic debate of immense significance for the future of civilization began to surface in a remarkably diverse array of media. The debate concerns the question, is there enough crude oil left in the world to get us to 2010 without a historically unprecedented discontinuity. The whole character of society in the 20th Century, and of its history, economics and politics is more a product of oil than of any other factor.

Campbell's book is the most interdisciplinary and broadly informed book available on a wide range of these issues. He has about four decades of experience in every aspect of the oil business, from finding the stuff in the field, to analysis, management, finance and consulting. It simply drips with honesty, frankness, realism and wisdom. He penetrates the maze of conflicting information and disinformation, as well as imprecise and confusing definitions, noting that there are colossal vested interests with motives to distort and confuse: oil is money and money is power. Campbell does not pretend that he knows what will happen but gives us a range of plausible scenarios. These events will produce a major change in thinking and our perceptions of reality. Campbell notes linkages between all kinds of systems components: for example, the politics of the Middle East. The book is very well written. It is replete with tables, discussions of the principal personalities in this issue area, and organized tables of explanation of important concepts and terms. Was this a welcome breath of fresh air ! -- W.J.George,Petroleum Economist, London

The crucial question which Campbell addresses in his book is how much oil remains to be found and for how long global oil resources can continue to support the expected growth in demand. Having access to Petroconsultants' extensive database, he has carried out a detailed and comprehensive analysis of historical production data and of the Earth's ultimate oil potential. His estimate of the ultimate oil reserves is 1800 billion barrels of which 1600 billion barrels have been discovered, and he predicts that there are only a further 200 billion barrels yet to be found. His most crucial pronouncement however, is that once the global mid-point of depletion has been reached, production rate will decline. Given current production rates, the mid-point corresponding to peak production, will be reached some time in the first decade of the new millennium. Based on this conclusion, Campbell examines three scenarios and offers some interesting insights into the possible consequences to a world having to adjust to a dwindling oil supply. Adding say 500 billion to the ultimate reserves estimate merely delays the mid-point by a decade: an understanding of this vital issue is thus already overdue. I believe most people will enjoy the semi-autobiographical style of this book: it is engagingly readable and delivers its message in very clear terms. Despite the use of the latest analytical techniques, even including state of the art parabolic fractals, the author has been able to present a complex subject involving the interaction of geology, economics, corporate, social and geopolitical issues in a language easily understood by the layman. In addition, the relevance of the 150 year history and evolution of the oil industry is recognized --Professor K.E.F Watt, University of California, Davis, U.S.A.

From the Author

The book reflects the experiences of a worldwide oil explorer and major oil company executive that led to an understanding of the oil and gas resource base and its depletion. It unfolds almost in the form of a detective story, written in non-technical language. It starts with the occurrence of oil and gas in nature, explaining the extraordinary combination of geological circumstances that lies behind a productive oil and gas province, and the fields within it. It moves on to examine the colourful history of the oil business, identifying the technical and political factors that shaped it, along with some of the extraordinary individuals whose work and exploits built the great oil companies which are household names today.

Then comes the essence of the book: an analysis of the amounts found, to-be-found, produced and to-be-produced, explaining the analytical techniques supporting the estimates. It looks behind the scenes to explain how reserves are estimated and reported, touching on the increasingly unreliable database. Many published numbers are variously overstated and understated by vested interests. It assesses recovery factors and the impact of technology, which are not quite what they seem to be.

That in turn leads to an evaluation of the depletion of what remains, showing that the inevitable imminent global production peak will be modified by the control of just five Middle East countries, which own about half of what remains to produce. How governments manage the oil business and how the companies manage themselves are discussed. A chapter covers the important illustration of Norway, now exporting more oil than Kuwait. Will the country make good use of its windfall? and how long will it last? What can be learnt from the Norwegian experience? How will Europe react as North Sea production heads into rapid decline within the decade?

Through a spectrum of scenarios, it examines the consequences for Mankind of the end of cheap oil-based energy that has fuelled his prosperity over the past century. Each scenario represents a logical sequence of actions and reactions as the world and it governments comes to grasp the implications. Some seem extreme and even unreasonable - but are they? It will not be a temporary interruption in supply but the onset of a new and very different world of growing shortage.

Almost all oil produced to-date is what is called Conventional oil, most free-flowing from wells, which will also dominate supply until long past peak. After peak will come increasing gas supplies together various non-conventional oils, including the heavy oils and tarsands of Venezuela and Canada. These resources, which are described in the book, are very large but production is slow, difficult and expensive. We are not yet running out of oil, just cheap oil.

It is not a doomsday message because a more sustainable world may be a better one. There are solutions in developing non-conventional oil and gas, renewable energy and above all by using what is left more efficiently. The problem lies in the transition - there is not much time to prepare.

The book contains a series of interviews with other experts in the field that bring to bear different viewpoints to amplify an understanding of the issues. They are themselves very revealing. It is well illustrated and contains many graphs and tables adding meat to the bone. An appendix provides detailed depletion plots of the main producing countries.

The book is designed for the general reader although passages perforce cover difficult technical subjects. Oil industry executives should find it food for thought: is it fair comment? how close does the description fit their current experience? and is there anything to learn from such a wide ranging review? Do explorers exaggerate the size of their prospects? and do engineers prefer a too cautious initial estimate of the reserves? How much oil is found every year? and how much is consumed ? Are their investments based on the right oil price assumptions ?

Investors should take heed of the financial implications of a major economic discontinuity as the price of world's economic lifeblood escalates. Timing is critical. Academia can find much here for course material on a wide range of subjects, including economics, petroleum studies, resource constraints, environmental issues and politics. Governments and international agencies in particular should use it to better interpret the often misleading economic advice with which they are fed. There is much in it too for the general reader who needs to be aware of the issues that will affect his life so greatly.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 210 pages
• Publisher: Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd. (April 1, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0906085225
• ISBN-13: 978-0906085226
• ASIN: 0906522110
• Product Dimensions: 11.6 x 8.2 x 0.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,252,240 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

58 of 61 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Beware of Publication Year, September 3, 2004

By 

Earth Reader - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Coming Oil Crisis (Paperback)

I purchased this book with the understanding that it was published in 2004 (as it was mentioned on amazon.com), but it is the same 1998 publication!

28 of 28 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Very good, timely and appropiate., July 18, 2004

By 

Valentine (Houston, TX) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Coming Oil Crisis (Paperback)

This book is an excellent work treating the current hydrocarbon depletion issue. Readers will be well rewarded for their money. This book, however, should be read with two more:

"Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage", by Kenneth S. Deffeyes

"The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future" by Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb

One thing the author does not treat is the transitional period from hydrocarbon to renewable sources. Since these are hard topics, and the uncertainty is very high, their omission from the work is quite understandable.

As to the comment by the reader from Portland, OR, I have worked on the floors of the largest energy companies in Houston, currently working for the California energy markets, and yes, C. J. Campbell does have a pretty good understanding of how the energy markets work. Although I do not quite share the author's a bit doomsday view of the years to come, we will be up for a significant challenge.

26 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Very comprehensive, February 22, 2000

By 

Alan Mayer (Australia) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Coming Oil Crisis (Paperback)

The book is based on total cumulative oil production of 1800 billion barrels with peak global production at aprox 10,000,000,000 litres per day in 2001 with a plateau until 2008 and declining until aprox 2100.

Large cities and energy intensive industries such as mining, aircraft, shipping and railways will bear the brunt of declining world oil production from present day global usage of 10,000,000,000 litres per day, declining to around 1,000,000 litres /day in 2080.

The book has extensive production profiles for many regions, but not Australia. It illustrates how Germany's oil production has been in decline from 0.058 Gb/a since the mid 1960's and US oil production has been in decline since the early 1970's peaking at around 9500 kb / day.

An extensive web site is discussed regarding renewable energy.

The rise in human population from 1 billion to 6 billion over the last 100 years is also discussed and the author predicts a decline in human population with declining oil production.

There is a brief discussion in regards to how the temperature rises 33 to 36 deg C for every km decrease in depth and how oil is subsequently cracked into gas at high temperatures, however it doesn't mention at what pressures the cracking would take place or if there is any difference in temperature between 4 km below sea level or 4 km below land.

The book rarely discusses synthetic fertilisers, such as sulphate of ammonia, which need oil or gas as a feedstock to fix nitrogen, etc. Brian Fleays book "The decline of the age of oil" discusses this in greater depth.

There is no discussion of the chemicals that are made from oil such as: Acetylene, rubber, explosives, insecticides, soaps, cosmetics, chewing gum wax, carbon brushes, etc which can be found in an encyclopedia.

However, the book is a very comprehensive discussion of the search for oil and the geological constraints of production.