The Coming War With Japan [Hardcover]

George Friedman (Author), Meredith Lebard (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: March 1991

Argues that the post-Cold War world will see the United States and Japan emerge as opponents, traces Japan's increasing power, and contends the United States holds the trump cards in the economic contest.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

This disturbing book offers an original, penetrating analysis of the future of U.S.-Japanese relations. The authors argue that with the collapse of the Cold War and with the Soviet Union in disarray, the U.S. will no longer endure Japan's economic encroachments. Japan, meanwhile, in order to ensure the influx of raw materials and to secure an export market it can dominate politically, will solidify its trading bloc in Southwest Asia and the Indian Ocean, while challenging U.S. hegemony in the Pacific Basin. As the U.S. converts its global military supremacy into economic leverage, America and a rearmed Japan will be set on a collision course; the rivalry between them could well spill over into a "hot war," the authors maintain. Friedman, a political science professor at Dickinson College in Pennsylvania, and freelance writer LeBard sometimes overstate their thesis, yet their scenario is plausible and is buttressed by an appraisal of the two nations' conflicting imperial ambitions from the 1890s to the present.
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Library Journal

Friedman and Lebard remind us at the beginning of their book that this century has already produced unlikely turns of events. Who in 1960 could have predicted that America 20 years later would be in retreat, defeated by the Vietnamese and reeling before the Iranians? If war with Japan seems impossible, the authors nevertheless deliver on their book's title with an alarming and usually plausible scenario that takes Japan and the United States on a downward spiral from trade friction to protectionism to armed showdown over markets and raw materials. Friedman and Lebard do not shrink from categorical assertions in the future tense--words like "inevitably" and "inexorably" dot the landscape as the pair chart the course of everything from savings rates to hypersonic aircraft. This is a lively, wide-ranging, up-to-date, and data-dense study. Even those who quarrel with the conclusion will find it stimulating. Highly recommended to specialists and general readers alike.
-John Boyle, California State Univ., Chico
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 429 pages
• Publisher: St Martins Pr; 1st edition (March 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312058365
• ISBN-13: 978-0312058364
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 5.5 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 0.8 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #986,684 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

42 of 45 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Interesting at the time, but in retrospect totally off base., July 3, 2007

By 

Curmudgeon "Curmudgeon" (Sacramento, CA, USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Coming War With Japan (Paperback)

The Friedmans have a view of world power returning to the multipolar world status it was before 1914. In their view, the old reasons for the USA and Japan to be allies had ended as of 1991, and economic frictions would lead to conflict between the two countries.

But in retrospect, they were very, very wrong. In fact, the USA and Japan probably have more reasons to be economic, political and even military allies in an increasingly dangerous world than ever before.

1. While the Friedmans thought Red China would come apart ("The same forces that destroyed European communism are present in China, suppressed at Tiananmen Square"), and that the resulting "refragmentation of China" would lead to Japanese vs. American intrigue in China, that hasn't happened!

Red China, while it calls itself communist, has in many ways reinvented or rediscovered fascism, with private corporations subject to tight state political control. And it is far from politically breaking up. Indeed, quite the contrary, an increasingly militarized and aggressive Red China, now with a blue water navy, will draw Japan and the USA closer together even more than the Soviet threat did.

2. The need to contain and perhaps reform the Muslim menace, and the need to secure oil and other resources, will again give Japan and the USA far more reasons to cooperate than to compete against each other. Already Japan has been quite cooperative with US military intervention in Iraq, in rather stark contrast to US "allies" like France.

3. Lastly, the Friedmans completely missed the demographic factor. For a nation to be willing to become more belligerent, especially against a nation as powerful as the USA, it had better have a large enough pool of angry young people, particularly men, willing to fight. Japan has one of the world's lowest birthrates, with 1.2 per woman as opposed to 2.1 per woman in the USA, and Japan has one of the lowest proportions of people under 30 of any nation on earth. Even with a society as into robotic technologies as Japan is, that's a serious and fatal flaw in the Friedmans' analysis.

14 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Wonderful Analysis but Strange Conclusion, December 16, 2004

By 

Johnnie B. (Dallas, Texas) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Coming War With Japan (Hardcover)

Heres an interesting book that has been somewhat discredited over time. Still, the analysis is excellent and worth considering.

The basic theme is that Japan and the United States could become opponents again with the end of the Cold War. The titanic battle against communism required Japan and the United States to come to an understanding. Basically, Japan was to manufacture goods, allow the US basing privileges and provide some defensive capability by patrolling the airspace and ocean immediately surrounding Japan. In return, the Unites States would guarantee Japan access to natural resources and provide for Japan's military defense. With the Cold War over, this arrangement has become economically unsound for the US to continue. A new political arrangement must be developed.

The authors show how Japan must have access to material resources from Asia and the Middle East to continue as a strong nation. They also reveal that Japan could probably aquire this access on its own through new alliances (especially with India) and by rebuilding its military. This would put Japan in conflict with the US since America needs control of the Western Pacific to feel stable.

The analysis leading up to the conclusion is inspiring. Friedman and Lebard boil down Japanese and US strategic interests and show how these needs are (or could be) met. They also show us how Japan could quickly rebuild its military forces.

As a prior post reveals, the conclusion is less than stellar in some aspects. They think Japan should ally itself with North Korea. Fat chance of that even before the Kim Dynasty started lobbing nuke capable missiles in Japan's direction! Another point that seems strange is the idea they put forward of placing a US armored division in South Korea. Why? The terrain just isnt right for large tank units.

The conflict the authors envision has not occurred for many reasons. As I noted above, they didnt factor in North Korea very well. Also, they didnt forsee Tokyo's economic bust. Even so, you can see some of the elements they discussed in motion today. A good example is the growing pressure in Japan to remove the Marines from Okinawa. This wouldnt have happened during the Cold War.

The authors missed some critical points in their analysis. Still, they did seem to capture many of the post-Cold War pressures we see today in Northeast Asia.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Sound analysis, some good points, November 4, 2010

By 

Howard Newcombe - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Coming War With Japan (Paperback)

Though events in the two decades following publication of this book have not proceeded as the authors predicted, it is still a useful analysis.

The authors failed to anticipate 1) that the Chinese communist system would survive the fall of the Soviet and East Europe communist regimes 2) that the frenetic globalization of the world economy would lead to vast increases in Chinese power and influence and 3) that Japan's economy would tailspin into a (terminal?) deflationary spiral. These three factors, together, create a situation of a powerful China and a weak Japan. So the Japanese are no longer in any position to threaten anybody with military aggression.

Still, should the future develop into a Cold War-style standoff between the PRC and the USA, all the old factors active during the USA-USSR cold war will once again become pertinent. This is where the book shines with its analysis of cold war power politics and economics. Well worth reviewing.

I think the most important point made in the book is that during a cold war-type situation, events that take place anywhere on the globe have a profound impact on the behaviors of the two competitors. When that situation ended between 1989 and 1991 (with the decline and collapse of the USSR), that entire dynamic ends and a "de-coupling" of crisis events makes for a situation in which a US-Japan split becomes possible and likely, as described in the book.

I also very much liked the text on the back cover which illustrates just how unpredictable the teeter-totter of history can be. How the world can change completely only in a span of twenty years.