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Make Money Using High Probability Seasonal Patterns in Commodities, November 5, 2007
This review is from: Commodity Trader's Almanac 2008 (Almanac Investor Series) (Spiral-bound)
This publication is similar in format and style to its sister publication the annual Stock Trader's Almanac that is an indispensable guide to recurring patterns in the stock markets. Trading with an edge is critical in today's volatile markets. Therefore, knowledge gleaned from the almanac can be used to bolster investing and trading profits. The Commodity Trader's Almanac 2008 has been published for only a few years, but it is value to traders is significant. If you believe that there are profits to be made in capitalizing on the patterns in the stock market, then you should definitely consider that there are even more consistent seasonal patterns in commodities as measured over decades.
This almanac, prepared by Jeffrey Hirsch and Scott Barrie, provides a calendar-based focus on illustrating the supply and demand cycles that impact commodity pricing. The almanac encompasses seasonal price data on a dozen major commodities (oil, gas, wheat, cotton, gold, etc.) that can be referenced throughout the year to see which patterns are coming into their strong or weak season. Each month one of the 12 commodities is highlighted with past history for its futures contract since 1986. For example, a 7- and 21-year line chart for the 12 months is shown on one graph and the monthly seasonal patterns can easily be discerned. It's quite amazing that the last 7 year data parallels the 21 year data as far as the high and low points in a large number of instances. This indicates that patterns that were in place two decades ago continue to persistent to a high degree in today's markets. For example, Gold is highlighted in the September calendar in the almanac. Gold futures have increased in value in the September through December period a dozen times in the past 21 years and in seven out of last nine years. So far in 2007 this pattern is repeating as gold (GLD not the futures) is selling for almost $800 an ounce on November 5 compared to about $660 in early September.
At the beginning of each calendar month, one commodity is highlighted with a chart (previously detailed above). In addition there are comments on the other commodities performance during that month grouped by category (energy, metals, grains, livestock, and softs (coffee, sugar and cocoa)). Additional insights are provided on other commodity patterns during that month showing performance statistics from 1987 forward.
One interesting table shows the probability of the each commodity rising on every trading day of 2008 based on 21 years of data. On a fair number of days the probability is greater than 60%.
Another valuable table shows the best 25 seasonal trades (either long or short, but profitable for 12 or 13 times out of 15 times) from 1993 through March 2007 for the dozen commodities that includes the entry and exit dates, the number of winners and losers, and the average profit and loss over this period. Moreover, there are many more useful chart and tables of data that can be used to the trader's advantage.
Since seasonality has such consistent patterns in specific commodities, although certainly not guaranteed to work every time, traders not spending the time to learn from history may regret their lack of curiosity about the past. In summary, this almanac is a virtual storehouse of practical information that traders should treasure and use to enhance their trading performance.
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