Commodity Trader's Almanac 2009 (Almanac Investor Series) (Spiral-bound)

by Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Author), John L. Person (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Review
"For those of you who have been trading and are unaware of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, you are in for a double treat now, as Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John L. Person have joined together and released the Commodity Trader’s Almanac 2009. Any serious stock trader should have been reading the Stock Trader’s Almanac for years, and now, with the addition of John Person’s expertise, the commodity markets are finally getting their due… If you are making more than ten commodity trades a year, The Commodity Trader’s Almanac is a resource you should have." – Reviewed by Tom Aspray for MoneyShow.com, Thursday, January 01, 2009

Product Description
Designed in the same style as its sister publication, the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this comprehensive guide features monthly strategies, patterns, trends, and trading techniques geared towards the major commodities and currencies. It also contains in-depth informational articles presenting various topics of interest to the active trader and investing public, as well as market highlights that cover key supply, demand, and seasonal tendencies on markets including crude oil, ethanol, and precious metals; critical agricultural products such as corn, wheat, and cattle; and foreign currencies like the British pound and the Euro.

"The Commodity Trader's Almanac is the best way I know to hit pay dirt while keeping your hands clean. It's a unique source of commodity trading history."
—Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research

"Nearly everyone realizes the impact commodities have on our lives, but very few really understand how seasonality affects pricing. The Commodity Trader's Almanac helps even a novice understand how commodity pricing works and offers great insight into investing and making money with oil, corn, and wheat. An invaluable tool."
—Jon Najarian, cofounder, OptionMONSTER.com

"John Person's latest with the Hirsch Organization is a great tool for all the trader-junkies like me. Whether you're a struggling novice or a seasoned pro, the Commodity Trader's Almanac should be a required read. Pairs traders, basis geeks, and intra-day scalpers will all benefit from the knowledge collected here by John, Jeff Hirsch, and the Hirsch Organization—I did!"
—Tom Sosnoff, founder and President, thinkorswim, Inc.

"The Commodity Trader's Almanac is the one source for traders that can both suggest opportunities and also keep them out of trouble. Any seasoned market veteran knows that events tend to occur again and again, maybe not exactly as they did before but close enough so that knowing about them in advance provides an edge. This book is that edge."
—Michael Kahn, CMT, columnist, Barron's Online, and editor, Quick Takes Pro newsletter

"I'm delighted that the publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac have applied their winning formula to the Commodity Trader's Almanac. I have always maintained that commodities deserve more attention as a separate asset class, and they finally appear to be getting it. Given the tremendous interest in commodity markets in recent years, this book couldn't be more timely. I highly recommend it."
—John Murphy, author of Intermarket Analysis and The Visual Investor

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Product Details

• Spiral-bound: 192 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; Spi New edition (November 17, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0470230614
• ISBN-13: 978-0470230619
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6.6 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #117,512 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

11 of 11 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Poor methodology - fundamental lack of understanding of futures, January 28, 2009

By	Doji Star (USA) - See all my reviews

This book is a great idea, full of information, and many of the seasonal patterns might be very useful but... The authors fail to account for rolling futures positions forward, and that renders most of their analysis useless.

[Apologies for readers unfamiliar with futures markets, but I will try to make the following explanation as clear as possible. I am a professional futures trader with 10 years of experience, a CFA Charterholder, a CMT (Chartered Market Technician), and was NFA/NASD Series III registered so I hope I can describe this accurately.]

In order to find their seasonal patterns, Hirsch and Person simply looked at a daily continuation chart (which always shows the prices from the nearest month and then shows the next month after that one expires) and subtracted the buy price from the sell price. This is VERY misleading and, in fact, impossible to actually do. For shorter-dated futures contracts, such as CL (crude oil) and NG (natural gas), which expire every month, a trader will have to "roll" their position to the next month because the current month expires. If the trader were long, he would need to sell the current prompt month and then sell the second most current month in order to keep his position until the book's exit date -- perhaps several times. The Almanac totally fails to take this rolling into account, so many of their strategies (particularly the longer holding period ones) are actually worthless, if not actually disastrous.

Here is an example. The authors claim buying NG on the 17th trading day of July and holding for 62 days has been profitable 17/18 years. This is incorrect, misleading, and potentially very dangerous. In one of the profitable years, 2006, the authors assume you bought NG on the open on 7/27 for $7.06 and sold it on the open on 10/24 at $7.83 -- nice, a $0.77 profit/MMBtu (or $7700/contract). Except not -- this trade was impossible. To get those prices, you would have to have purchased the U06 contract and sold the Z06 contract. In between, you would had to have rolled your length to V06 and X06 because those contracts would expire near the end of every month. If you had just bot the Z06 contract on 7/27 to make life simple without rolling, you would have had to pay $10.253! You would have lost $2.423 (or $24,230 per contract)! I cannot tell what day the authors choose to roll (because they never describe their methodology; it is apparently some time before expiration date), but rolling length from U06 to V06 to X06 to Z06 may have lost even more money than just buying Z06 back in July.

So their vaunted "seasonal pattern" and $7700 "win" only exists on a continuation chart. In reality, it was a $24,230 loss. Admittedly, this is a pathological example in a very contrary year in a market with an extremely seasonal term structure to the curve, but it makes one wonder if any of their "data" is even vaguely useful. There are many services which provide ACTUAL seasonal patterns in futures, and it doesn't take a genius to figure out how rolling positions forward affects profits. In no way would I recommend that anyone purchase this: it is very misleading and dangerous.

Authors and publisher: please either figure out how to do the math correctly or stop publishing this. If I am wrong, and I hope I'm not because I paid for this book, someone please correct me.

5.0 out of 5 stars Commodity Traders Almanac, April 5, 2009

By	Jon Liljekrans - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Commodity Traders Almanac 2009 is a must have for traders and investors. It's packed with relevant and tradeable information and data. This is the best, most concise book I've found that covers the seasonal tendencies of commodities and forex markets. The authors also identify ETF's proxies for the various commodities for equities traders. I keep this book open on my desk at all times.

0 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Commodity Almanac Review, December 21, 2008

By	Robert W. Hecht "RW Hecht" (Levittown, PA USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Absolutely essential product for anyone trading commodities or who has an interest in the commodity market. Highly recommend this product!!