Customer Reviews

Complexification: Explaining a Paradoxical World through the Science of Surprise

5 star:		(1)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

While parts of this book were very thought-provoking, too many details were either left out or skimmed over to allow this book to stand alone. For example, the formula the author supplies to calculate the eccentricity of a simplex couldn't possibly produce the results he gives in the adjoining table; some are infinite, and the formula as he states is specifically designed to avoid such results. If you're really interested in catastophe theory or chaos theory, make sure you read this book where you have other reference materials on hand.

I found this to be an easy to read introduction to current hot topics in science and math. Catastrophe theory, Complexity, Chaos, and emergence. There is also an excellent listing of resources with commentary in the back of the book, called, "to dig deeper". I am an engineer with an MBA, so found a number of the examples very interesting. For the curious, (or less technically adept), this is very well written. Mr. Casti goes quickly from theory to "real world" examples. His illustrations are also very helpful to understanding the basic principles. Most books on complexity contain way too much math for the average reader, or are very simplistic, "Ubiquity" as an example. I think you will find a nice balance here.

Casti says, maxims and aphorisms with opposite meaning can both be true in a complex world. Example, people fall in love because: A. 'birds of a feather flock together'.. B.'opposites attract'. Great exercise for clearing out cobwebs in the mind.

Forgive me for the inarticulate title, but that about sums it up. In this book, John Casti uses misleading chapter titles and open-ended explanations to new scientific theories to explain what he thinks should be the foundation of the "science of surprise".

Now, don't get me wrong: open-ended material is not always a bad thing. Especially with new theories on chaos and related subjects that have not yet been given a strong leg to stand on; it is great to give readers a little insight so they can come up with some of their own conclusions. But there is a difference between presenting an interesting question then suggestion some well-thoughtout solutions and presenting an interesting question and jotting down a quick answer by using unproven assumptions.

One example of this is when he explains the irrationality of common sense and bases almost his entire argument on the fact that many people will take $100 dollars today instead of $120 dollars next week and $1,300,000 in a year instead of $100 today. If you read that whole chapter, you will find little more than this explaining why common sense is a faulty way of thinking other than an accident made by an unattentive engineer. Granted, I agree (for my own reasons), but these two situations are not a very good explanation for why common sense in decision making is unwise.

And from what I read and skimmed through, basing solutions off of unstable assumptions and unique situations seems to be what Casti is best at. He uses many words to explain some of the simplest theories in this scientific genre and too few words for the most complex. His thoughts hold little order and several times chapters and paragraphs don't even finish the thoughts that he starts.

I am giving it two stars because eventually he does correctly rattle off some of the basic theories, and he includes a couple of interesting situations and questions.

If you want a good read from the area of unpredictable science, try Chaos : Making a New Science by James Gleick.