Customer Reviews

Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (Hardcover) includes Bonus CD-ROM

5 star:		(8)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

Robert Prechter wrote this book in the first quarter of 2002, yet it reads as if he already knew what would happen to the stock market, economy and politics at present. His uncannily accurate forecasts were based on Elliott wave behavioural theory which holds that herd instinct drives the public's mood in distinct and discernible wave patterns that last and overlap for long, medium and short terms. Once a wave starts it persists its course and is only very temporarily interrupted by real events (e.g. Sept 11th destruction of Twin Towers, Government bailout of banks, etc) before resuming its relentless course. His prognosis is that based on wave theory the bear market that started in 2000 will be worse than the three previous depressions of 1929-32, 1835-42 and 1720-84. Furthermore it's ramifications will last until about 2016.One could dismiss all this as the work of Cassandra except that Prechter was alone in anticipating the 1982-2000 credit fuelled boom period back in the late 1070s and called the 2000 share market bust in 1995. When the bull market resumed in 2003 he accurately foresaw that it was a false rally that would eventually result in a deep bear market which has already wiped out almost half the value of listed corporate stock. His monthly Elliot Wave International Forecast newsletter brings one up to date with his 2002 book. Its recount of where we are in the global financial crisis is frighteningly consistent with his original outlook.
The first half of his book is an analysis of financial markets over the last 300 years and how they follow a cyclical five wave up and three wave down pattern (whose form is always similar, though whose scale and timing vary). At Dec 2008 he saw the stock market and economy as being towards the end of the first of three waves down with a lot further to go whereas most analysts were predicting a strong market recovery in 2009. Time will tell whether his socionomics wave theory proves right again. If it is we are in for the most disruptive financial, economic, social and political era in 300 years. I genuinely hope he is wrong because otherwise we should sell all our long-term assets and go into cash or treasury bills until the storm blows over. Also we should reduce our debt as much as possible because in a deflationary climate where asset values are falling high debt is a trap that destroys net wealth.
P. Allan (Dec 27th 2008)

Much of what Prechter foretells has or seems to be coming to pass. This is more impressive since the book was published in 2002. The original text is definitely worth a read. Unfortunately, the Bonus CD-Rom updates for 2009 are weak. I guess we're supposed to subscribe to his forecasting service to actually get the trend updates.

Although written in 2002, his book predicts the coming crash with accuracy. It is twobooksin one, pridictions and what to do about it to avoid losses. Feburary 2009 and I ploted the current DJ averages with the beginning projections and they match. The government actions are not stopping the crash, also as he also predicted.

Charles Botts, Age 76

Having previously read this book, I purchased the "updated" version hoping to get more "updated" information and opinion. I wasted my money; this version is very light on new material.

Even though this book was published over 5 yrs ago, it provides some very timely information for the present economic crisis. Some of the content is rather radical, but a lot of it is very practical and instructive. Robert Prechter thinks the same way I do regarding markets, what drives them and how they react. He's the technician, I learned the hard way. The social aspects of markets (the book calls this Socionomics)is very interesting and is the piece that I think most people, including high and mighty money managers, miss. One last comment about Amazon. I ordered this book on a Thursday very late in the afternoon and received it the following day. Kudos to Amazon on that one.

The book provides accurate predictions of the current market behavior, ways to safeguard against it, and even profit along the way! Truly a great book. Still useful in providing means to find a safe place for your hard-earned money (hint: not the government bonds..)

I've been a big fan of Bob Prechter for years, but this book really doesn't cut it. Part 1 is an Elliott Wave primer - OK if you want or need the theory. Part 2 are recommendations - they're pretty near worthless. Example - chapter on Ensuring your Physical Safety - if there is one word of wisdom or value in that whole chapter, it eluded me.

Buy Crash Proof by Schiff - much better. I don't know if we're heading for hyper inflation or deflation, but at least Schiff has something of substance to say.

Save your money.

This book is a real eye opener: scaring but realistic. It gives a thoroughly idea about what is coming to us the next years.

I read this book in 2004. I bought what Prechter was foretelling in stock market and economic analysis, but thought maybe he was a bit to doom-and-gloomy on the real estate market since it was still booming a couple years after his book came out. I'm kicking myself now; I could have saved myself hundreds of thousands of dollars if I had only taken his warnings to heart. Who else accurately and specifically foretold the collapse of banking and financial sectors, bankruptcy of the US auto companies, Fannie and Freddie debacles, etc, etc, etc. This prescient 2002 book reads like a script for the current economic crisis. I've already pre-ordered the updated version of CTC which is coming out Nov '09. Do yourself a favor and get one too!

This book is an accurate depiction of the reality. Even the 2002 version of the book called out whatever is going to happen with uncanny accuracy. I know the updates to 2009 are weak. However, this is the one source of truth and you don't want to miss knowing the truth. It took quite some time for the excesses to unwind and once it starts unwinding, the outcome is more or less on the lines of what Bob has prognosticated.

thanks,
Suresh