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Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression Paperback – January 16, 2004

ISBN-13: 072-3812668502 ISBN-10: 0470870907 Edition: 1st

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Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (January 16, 2004)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0470870907
  • ISBN-13: 978-0470870907
  • Product Dimensions: 1 x 7.1 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (157 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #904,422 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

Review

"…A must read especially for the discerning investor…" (Malaysian Business, 16 November 2003)

From the Inside Flap

If you did not read Robert Prechter’s At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (1995), you might have become the victim of any one of a dozen financial debacles. You might have held junk bonds, which have been collapsing ever since. You might have slaved over a demanding job that paid you in stock options that are now worthless. You might have speculated in Internet stocks, which went bust. If you are a vendor, you might have sold equipment to dot-com companies for an I.O.U. that was never paid. If you live in Argentina, you might have kept your money in a local bank and one day awakened broke. If you worked for Enron, you might have watched every nickel of your retirement savings evaporate. If you own a business, you might have let economists convince you that no recession was possible just before the economy contracted and slammed you up against the wall. Maybe for you, it’s too late.

But for most people, this book has been timely.
It was first completed at the stock market high of March 2002 and is now being republished at another peak in social optimism, with the stock market rallying, the Dow back near 10,000, economists unanimously bullish, and commentators assuring us that another great bull market has just begun. If you think that all is well and your finances are safe, read this book before it’s too late for you.


More About the Author

For Robert Prechter's full biography, please visit www.robertprechter.com.

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., is a financial and social theorist and a market analyst. He is the President and CEO of Elliott Wave International and has written 14 books. Prechter is known for making a very bullish prediction in 1982 for a 1920s-style stock market boom which he detailed in his 1978 book, Elliott Wave Principle. Elliott Wave Principle with A.J. Frost (1978) forecasted the great bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. His 2002 New York Times best seller, Conquer the Crash, predicted the current debt crisis. It is the only book that advised readers to avoid all investments and hold safe cash. Prechter's two-book set Socionomics (2003) shows how his social and financial theories weave together with his market forecasting approach: Waves of group mood determine the tenor of society's actions, from more inward, dark, bearish expressions to more outward, sunnier and bullish endeavors. Prechter's website, www.socionomics.net, explains his socionomics hypothesis and how it applies to various human arenas.

Prechter has dedicated much of his career to employing and enhancing R. N. Elliott's financial pricing model called the Wave Principle. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department. Prechter is President of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI serves institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial Theory
Prechter's theory of financial causality proposes a separation between finance and economics. In the economic realm, goods and services have utility value and mostly are priced rationally via the Law of Supply and Demand. This leads to rough equilibrium. In the financial realm, investments are priced non-rationally, with changes fueled by uncertain future demand and according to the Law of Patterned Herding. This approach generates speculation and unceasing dynamism. Only once the analyst recognizes this divergence can he properly view financial pricing, Prechter asserts.

Socionomics
Prechter's theory of socionomics says that trends and events across a broad spectrum of human interaction are impelled by a common immutable force: social mood. With its claim that mood impels action and events, socionomics is unique; most social theories posit the reverse.
The Wave Principle
As a market analyst, Prechter applies the Wave Principle, a financial pricing model identified and described by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. According to this model, financial market prices develop in a series of five- and three-wave forms and produce a fractal. Prechter has written and/or edited a dozen books on the Wave Principle. Prechter began applying the Wave Principle to financial markets in 1972. Prechter's firm, Elliott Wave International, analyzes every major financial market in the world, 24 hours a day, according to the Wave Principle.

Awards
Using the Wave Principle, Prechter won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984 with a then-record 444% return in four months in a monitored, real-money options trading account. Prechter has won numerous speaking, timing and publishing awards, and in 1989, he was named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC). In 1999, Prechter received the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts' first annual A.J. Frost Memorial Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Development of Technical Analysis. In 2003, Traders Library granted him its Hall of Fame award.

Miscellaneous
Prechter was born in 1949. He attended Yale University on a full scholarship. In 1979, Prechter founded Elliott Wave International and began publishing monthly market analysis under the masthead, The Elliott Wave Theorist. He was a nine-year member the Market Technicians Association's board and was the MTA's President in 1990-1991. Prechter employs a staff of analysts who apply the Wave Principle, real-time, to every major market in the world. He recently created the Socionomics Institute, which elucidates socionomics, and he underwrites the Socionomics Foundation, which is dedicated to supporting socionomics-related academic research. Elliott Wave Principle has been translated into a dozen languages, and Conquer the Crash was a New York Times bestseller. Prechter has made multiple speeches and media appearances around the globe. In 2008, the Georgia state legislature asked Prechter to testify before the legislature's Joint Economic Committee regarding the developing real estate crisis. Bob is a member of the Triple Nine Society, the Shakespeare Oxford Society and the Shakespeare Fellowship.

Customer Reviews

I am in agreement with the author that things are about to get much worse.
P. McWhorter
I read this book when it came out in 2002, when it was first revised in 2004 and again this year.
C. A. Prejean
He writes that strong Bear markets would be followed by great depression in Economy.
sathiamoorthy

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

163 of 167 people found the following review helpful By L. Masonson on August 18, 2002
Format: Hardcover
Robert Prechter Jr. is well-known in stock market circles for his Elliott Wave predictions over the years have had their success and failures. This is Prechter�s third and latest book (At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (1995) and The Elliott Wave Principle (1978)). His current book is really two books in one printed on different colored paper! Even if you do not agree with Prechter�s view of the world, you should certainly understand his arguments and make your own decisions.
Part I (135 pp.) focuses on why he believes a stock market crash will occur in the near term, as well why deflation and economic depression are high probability scenarios. Although deflation and depression are rare occurrences, Prechter believes that they are at the brink. His goal is writing the book is to provide insight into defining both events and make you believe that they can happen, and eventually make you believe that they are likely to happen.
Prechter compares the period 1942-1966 (called Wave III) with the economic expansion of 1974-2000 (Wave V). He points out that the most recent period had much weaker economic fundamentals and performance than the prior period, although by stock market standards Wave V had an increase of 1930% on the DJIA compared to 971% during Wave III. In his analysis he provides comprehensive statistics on GDP, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Unemployment rate, household�s liquid assets, federal and consumer debt, prime rate, federal budget deficit, personal savings among others. Prechter then defines depression and its relationship to the stock market. One of his key observations is that �major stock market declines lead directly to depressions�.
Prechter depicts the five waves evident in the stock market using four charts.
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330 of 350 people found the following review helpful By T. Austin on August 27, 2002
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Let me get this off my chest first: I read every single review here at Amazon before I bought this book and I must say that the negative reviews; or more accurately the nasty ones, lead me to believe that the reviewers did not read the book. I say that because even if Prichter is wrong, and there is no upcoming "Deflationary Depression" and this decade is all blue skies just like the late 1990's were, any subsequent readers who followed his advice to the exact letter of the verbage would NOT lose any of their assets whatsoever. Therefore, how could this book do harm? At worst it educates the reader as to how to handle uncertain times. There is no bad or harmful advice in this book.
His advice is basically to pay off your bills, put your money in rock solid banks. Don't rely on the government to protect you, buy some precious metals, and get ready to profit once we are at the rock bottom by way of investment strategies that take advantage of the subsequent inflation post a "Deflationary Depression." What's harmful about being in cash?
Now the review: Prichter is confident that there is going to be a deflationary depression. A period of great contraction in our economy that drives down any and all inflated value out of any goods or services such as the depression the United States suffered through in 1929.
He supports his premise with monetary statistics such as the 30 trillion dollar credit bubble that America now has, and numerous other statistics that aren't that pretty.
Prichter also bases his premise for a "Deflationary Depression" on a controversial charting method known as "The Elliot Wave Theory". It's controversial in that some stock market analysts think it is merely conjecture, while other analysts feel it is an absolute, social, "fractal".
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86 of 92 people found the following review helpful By Alexey Panchekha on September 21, 2005
Format: Paperback
If you are an experienced reader of financial publications and would like to read a view that is very different but presented with arguments and reasoning - this is a good book to read. A different view will likely shine a new light to known facts and pull some new ones that you have not considered recently. Even if you don't agree with the author, such reading has high value if facts are presented well. These are. You should keep in mind though, that author stresses that he foresaw long bull market before many, knew its characteristics, etc. But his own advisory service (tracked by Hulbert Financial Magazine) has very poor results. He is way behind broad market on a "regular investors" portfolio and dramatically negative in his "trader" portfolio. His performance looks very consistent bad during a good 20 years period. So, in fact, you would look like a true hero if you took all his "trader" advises and did just opposite! Note, that it is not just stock picking that is bad. Timing-only returns are even worse. So, remember, your brain cannot retire yet. Given that - it is a good reading, good perspective to consider.

If you are just starting to read financial publications - you might not appreciate the fact that there are thousands of financial publishers at any given time. All, yes, all of them are smart. Really smart. Finance has so many dimensions that it is possible to argue any number of views at the same time - all well grounded and reasoned. When you are starting, anything you read impresses you, looks totally convincing and even evident. Moreover, you will have a feeling that you can make a confident use of newly acquired knowledge. This is why it is NOT good first reading for you. Before you have your brain active - you need some measured background reading.
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