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Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression [Paperback]

by Robert R. Prechter Jr.
3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (156 customer reviews)


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Book Description

January 16, 2004 0470870907 978-0470870907 1
"The forecasts in Conquer the Crash continue to be uncannily accurate. Look out below as the rest become reality."Jim Puplava, host, financialsense.com____________

A year after Conquer the Crash published, stock markets around the world fell precipitously. The rebound of the last six months has convinced some that we are leaving the bear market behind and entering a bull market and economic boom. In this expanded and updated Second Edition of the New York Times bestseller, Prechter returns to provide answers as to what lies ahead. He provides updated economic and market analysis, shows you how to take steps to protect, survive, and prosper and asks, contrary to what most market analysts believe, whether the depression is truly at an end? The expanded and updated edition includes a new 50 page supplement plus current Safety Sources. Written by a leading expert on investing in bear markets, this book is a timely and insightful guide for anyone looking to protect and make money in today's financial markets.

Praise for the first edition:

"...I am saying that this is 'must reading' for anyone who has even the slightest interest in the stock market and his or her own investing."
Richard Russel, Dow Theory Letters

"Prechter's understanding of technical, contrary and economic analysis is exceptional"
Lawrence G. MacMillan, The Option Strategist

"All investors imbued with the idea that stocks should be bought and held forever should read this book."
Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner, Comstock Partners, Inc.

"Conquer the Crash provides disciplined investors with a map, compass and survival guide. Don't leave home without it."
Henry Van der Eb, The P.Q. Wall Forecast

"A compelling exposition of how both the mechanics and the psychology of the business cycle can be encapsulated in market analysis."
Sean Corrigan, Capital-Insight.com

"Prechter knows the facts like few others. Read this forceful argument carefully. It can save you from financial loss."
James R. Cook, President, Investment Rarities

"...required reading for anyone who wants to enhance his or her prospects for the years ahead."
Timothy Bost, Editor, Financial Cycles



Editorial Reviews

Review

"…A must read especially for the discerning investor…" (Malaysian Business, 16 November 2003)

From the Inside Flap

If you did not read Robert Prechter’s At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (1995), you might have become the victim of any one of a dozen financial debacles. You might have held junk bonds, which have been collapsing ever since. You might have slaved over a demanding job that paid you in stock options that are now worthless. You might have speculated in Internet stocks, which went bust. If you are a vendor, you might have sold equipment to dot-com companies for an I.O.U. that was never paid. If you live in Argentina, you might have kept your money in a local bank and one day awakened broke. If you worked for Enron, you might have watched every nickel of your retirement savings evaporate. If you own a business, you might have let economists convince you that no recession was possible just before the economy contracted and slammed you up against the wall. Maybe for you, it’s too late.

But for most people, this book has been timely.
It was first completed at the stock market high of March 2002 and is now being republished at another peak in social optimism, with the stock market rallying, the Dow back near 10,000, economists unanimously bullish, and commentators assuring us that another great bull market has just begun. If you think that all is well and your finances are safe, read this book before it’s too late for you.


Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (January 16, 2004)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0470870907
  • ISBN-13: 978-0470870907
  • Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.1 x 0.8 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (156 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #903,097 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

For Robert Prechter's full biography, please visit www.robertprechter.com.

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., is a financial and social theorist and a market analyst. He is the President and CEO of Elliott Wave International and has written 14 books. Prechter is known for making a very bullish prediction in 1982 for a 1920s-style stock market boom which he detailed in his 1978 book, Elliott Wave Principle. Elliott Wave Principle with A.J. Frost (1978) forecasted the great bull market of the 1980s and 1990s. His 2002 New York Times best seller, Conquer the Crash, predicted the current debt crisis. It is the only book that advised readers to avoid all investments and hold safe cash. Prechter's two-book set Socionomics (2003) shows how his social and financial theories weave together with his market forecasting approach: Waves of group mood determine the tenor of society's actions, from more inward, dark, bearish expressions to more outward, sunnier and bullish endeavors. Prechter's website, www.socionomics.net, explains his socionomics hypothesis and how it applies to various human arenas.

Prechter has dedicated much of his career to employing and enhancing R. N. Elliott's financial pricing model called the Wave Principle. He began his career as a Technical Market Specialist with the Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Department. Prechter is President of Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI serves institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial Theory
Prechter's theory of financial causality proposes a separation between finance and economics. In the economic realm, goods and services have utility value and mostly are priced rationally via the Law of Supply and Demand. This leads to rough equilibrium. In the financial realm, investments are priced non-rationally, with changes fueled by uncertain future demand and according to the Law of Patterned Herding. This approach generates speculation and unceasing dynamism. Only once the analyst recognizes this divergence can he properly view financial pricing, Prechter asserts.

Socionomics
Prechter's theory of socionomics says that trends and events across a broad spectrum of human interaction are impelled by a common immutable force: social mood. With its claim that mood impels action and events, socionomics is unique; most social theories posit the reverse.
The Wave Principle
As a market analyst, Prechter applies the Wave Principle, a financial pricing model identified and described by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. According to this model, financial market prices develop in a series of five- and three-wave forms and produce a fractal. Prechter has written and/or edited a dozen books on the Wave Principle. Prechter began applying the Wave Principle to financial markets in 1972. Prechter's firm, Elliott Wave International, analyzes every major financial market in the world, 24 hours a day, according to the Wave Principle.

Awards
Using the Wave Principle, Prechter won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984 with a then-record 444% return in four months in a monitored, real-money options trading account. Prechter has won numerous speaking, timing and publishing awards, and in 1989, he was named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC). In 1999, Prechter received the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts' first annual A.J. Frost Memorial Award for Outstanding Contribution to the Development of Technical Analysis. In 2003, Traders Library granted him its Hall of Fame award.

Miscellaneous
Prechter was born in 1949. He attended Yale University on a full scholarship. In 1979, Prechter founded Elliott Wave International and began publishing monthly market analysis under the masthead, The Elliott Wave Theorist. He was a nine-year member the Market Technicians Association's board and was the MTA's President in 1990-1991. Prechter employs a staff of analysts who apply the Wave Principle, real-time, to every major market in the world. He recently created the Socionomics Institute, which elucidates socionomics, and he underwrites the Socionomics Foundation, which is dedicated to supporting socionomics-related academic research. Elliott Wave Principle has been translated into a dozen languages, and Conquer the Crash was a New York Times bestseller. Prechter has made multiple speeches and media appearances around the globe. In 2008, the Georgia state legislature asked Prechter to testify before the legislature's Joint Economic Committee regarding the developing real estate crisis. Bob is a member of the Triple Nine Society, the Shakespeare Oxford Society and the Shakespeare Fellowship.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
160 of 164 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Provocative Viewpoint on the Market and the Economy August 18, 2002
Format:Hardcover
Robert Prechter Jr. is well-known in stock market circles for his Elliott Wave predictions over the years have had their success and failures. This is Prechter�s third and latest book (At the Crest of the Tidal Wave (1995) and The Elliott Wave Principle (1978)). His current book is really two books in one printed on different colored paper! Even if you do not agree with Prechter�s view of the world, you should certainly understand his arguments and make your own decisions.
Part I (135 pp.) focuses on why he believes a stock market crash will occur in the near term, as well why deflation and economic depression are high probability scenarios. Although deflation and depression are rare occurrences, Prechter believes that they are at the brink. His goal is writing the book is to provide insight into defining both events and make you believe that they can happen, and eventually make you believe that they are likely to happen.
Prechter compares the period 1942-1966 (called Wave III) with the economic expansion of 1974-2000 (Wave V). He points out that the most recent period had much weaker economic fundamentals and performance than the prior period, although by stock market standards Wave V had an increase of 1930% on the DJIA compared to 971% during Wave III. In his analysis he provides comprehensive statistics on GDP, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Unemployment rate, household�s liquid assets, federal and consumer debt, prime rate, federal budget deficit, personal savings among others. Prechter then defines depression and its relationship to the stock market. One of his key observations is that �major stock market declines lead directly to depressions�.
Prechter depicts the five waves evident in the stock market using four charts.
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327 of 347 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars This book will cause you no financial harm if followed August 27, 2002
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
Let me get this off my chest first: I read every single review here at Amazon before I bought this book and I must say that the negative reviews; or more accurately the nasty ones, lead me to believe that the reviewers did not read the book. I say that because even if Prichter is wrong, and there is no upcoming "Deflationary Depression" and this decade is all blue skies just like the late 1990's were, any subsequent readers who followed his advice to the exact letter of the verbage would NOT lose any of their assets whatsoever. Therefore, how could this book do harm? At worst it educates the reader as to how to handle uncertain times. There is no bad or harmful advice in this book.
His advice is basically to pay off your bills, put your money in rock solid banks. Don't rely on the government to protect you, buy some precious metals, and get ready to profit once we are at the rock bottom by way of investment strategies that take advantage of the subsequent inflation post a "Deflationary Depression." What's harmful about being in cash?
Now the review: Prichter is confident that there is going to be a deflationary depression. A period of great contraction in our economy that drives down any and all inflated value out of any goods or services such as the depression the United States suffered through in 1929.
He supports his premise with monetary statistics such as the 30 trillion dollar credit bubble that America now has, and numerous other statistics that aren't that pretty.
Prichter also bases his premise for a "Deflationary Depression" on a controversial charting method known as "The Elliot Wave Theory". It's controversial in that some stock market analysts think it is merely conjecture, while other analysts feel it is an absolute, social, "fractal".
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86 of 92 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Good to read but be aware September 21, 2005
Format:Paperback
If you are an experienced reader of financial publications and would like to read a view that is very different but presented with arguments and reasoning - this is a good book to read. A different view will likely shine a new light to known facts and pull some new ones that you have not considered recently. Even if you don't agree with the author, such reading has high value if facts are presented well. These are. You should keep in mind though, that author stresses that he foresaw long bull market before many, knew its characteristics, etc. But his own advisory service (tracked by Hulbert Financial Magazine) has very poor results. He is way behind broad market on a "regular investors" portfolio and dramatically negative in his "trader" portfolio. His performance looks very consistent bad during a good 20 years period. So, in fact, you would look like a true hero if you took all his "trader" advises and did just opposite! Note, that it is not just stock picking that is bad. Timing-only returns are even worse. So, remember, your brain cannot retire yet. Given that - it is a good reading, good perspective to consider.

If you are just starting to read financial publications - you might not appreciate the fact that there are thousands of financial publishers at any given time. All, yes, all of them are smart. Really smart. Finance has so many dimensions that it is possible to argue any number of views at the same time - all well grounded and reasoned. When you are starting, anything you read impresses you, looks totally convincing and even evident. Moreover, you will have a feeling that you can make a confident use of newly acquired knowledge. This is why it is NOT good first reading for you. Before you have your brain active - you need some measured background reading.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars For the Antifragile Investor
Combine with "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Whereas your typical investor makes small gains year after year and then loses it all... Read more
Published 12 days ago by Mark A. Laughlin
1.0 out of 5 stars He's been saying the same thing since 2001 or earlier
I bought the book, subscribed to the service, etc....this was in 2009, 2010...when the S&P hit 1000 he was in full on bear mode telling how "the end is nigh"... Read more
Published 18 days ago by Christopher Maggio
1.0 out of 5 stars Sure and then you can conquer hunger, war, famine, earthquakes, etc
This could be a good "beginner's" guide to trading but if you rely on this for trading - I guarantee that eventually you WILL lose. Read more
Published 22 days ago by Walter Prochorenko
3.0 out of 5 stars mixed bag
First, I have not finished reading the book, in part due to boredom on my part. It seemed to me that graphical analysis is nothing more than 20/20 hindsight, and to say the market... Read more
Published 3 months ago by Donald D. Farra
4.0 out of 5 stars It's not Keysian Economic theory! Something much more discernable.
The book is good in explaining a plausable alternative to economic theory. Explains fiat money and not from a whacko point of view. Read more
Published 4 months ago by Darren M.
5.0 out of 5 stars Eerily accurate.
Precchtor's predictions as to the direction of the economy, based on Elliott Wave patterns, are eerily accurate. Read more
Published 4 months ago by S. J. Haye
5.0 out of 5 stars Great Book - I loved it.
Bob is a visionary when it comes to evaluating human nature. Great guy, very bright, very intuitive. Book is a must for economic survival. Read more
Published 5 months ago by Nevadachuck
5.0 out of 5 stars Prechter is a Giant!
This man is a technician in the purest sense of the word. Everything he writes is backed up by data and charts. Elliott Wave theory is a must for all technicians. Read more
Published 6 months ago by Fernando
4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Buy
THE PRODUCT MET MY NEEDS AND IS QUALITY MEETS ALL COMPARISON OR SIMILAR ITEMS. EASY TO CARRY AND CAN ANYWHERE.
Published 15 months ago by R Nieffenegger
5.0 out of 5 stars GREAT
This book is good to have as the economy goes south. It gives suggestions on what to do....but also tells why things are happening.
Published 17 months ago by N. V. Epps
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