Before the publication of David Grinspoon's Lonely Planets: The Natural Philosophy of Alien Life (2003), which I highly recommend (see my review), I was frankly starved for speculations and information about the search for extraterrestrial life. With this volume however I think I am sated. This could be called the mother of all SETI books and then some.
The text runs to 376 dense pages. There are 72 pages of "References," although I wish there were a separate bibliography in which the works referenced were presented alphabetically by author. I don't find this newfangled practice of omitting a bibliography convenient. Regardless Michaud seems to quote just about anybody even remotely connected with SETI including many scientific lights, Carl Sagan, David Darling, Arthur C. Clarke, Frank Drake, Seth Shostak, Jill Tarter, Frank Tipler, et al., along with scifi literary illuminati like Olaf Stapledon, not to mention religious people, politicians, and even a poet or two.
He begins with what he calls "a condensed history of speculations...up to 1959" which is followed by "brief descriptions of the scientific searches" for ETs and their signals, and then he launches into a step by step consideration of the Drake equation. He brings us up to date on the latest thinking. As most SETI knowledgeable people know, the Drake equation on the probability of there being intelligent life elsewhere has been given a big boost in recent years by the discovery of planets revolving around other stars, and by our learning just how inhospitable environments can be and still harbor microbial life, as in deep ocean vents and far down into the earth's crust. To me this last discovery is especially exciting because (as Michaud points out) it greatly increases the number of places in the cosmos where life could be thriving--around brown dwarfs (or maybe even ON them!), in interstellar space, in dust clouds and of course under frozen surfaces, such as exist on Europa.
Skeptics as well as wide-eyed optimists are quoted. The UFO controversy is examined. Consequences of contact are explored, etc. But with all the speculations, learned and otherwise, we are still left with just one example of life from which to extrapolate. So, interesting as all this material is, it is not nearly as interesting as just one itty-bitty, bonafide example of extraterrestrial life would be. I hope I live long enough for one to be found.
To conclude let me concentrate on a couple of issues that I find most interesting.
First, the issue of colonization of the galaxy. I prefer to ask not Fermi's "Where are they?" but "Why should they?"
The assumption that there is an innate propensity for life to reproduce ad infinitum is one that is hard to argue with when applied to life on earth. The assumption that life elsewhere will have a similar urge is also reasonable. However when we look at the average lifespan of species on this planet we realize that something like a million years is the norm. How much of the galaxy could a species that exists for a million years colonize? Further qualify this by asking what is the average lifespan of a species that leaves the environment to which it is adapted? It may well be that if we ourselves go space-faring, we may find artifacts of extinct ETs but not the ETs themselves.
There is also the question why would intelligent beings want to live in hostile environments? Some of their kind, like some of our kind, might very well volunteer for the uncertainties of a lifetime in space and a lifetime in space for their progeny, but most probably would not. And how massively advanced does a civilization have to be to go space-faring, confident that nothing will go wrong over the span of a hundred years, a thousand years, ten-thousand years...? Humans as presently constituted would find living on a spaceship for even months at a time very difficult. Think of how our ideas have changed since the time of Shakespeare, a mere four hundred years ago. By the time the space travelers are gone a generation or two, it is possible that they may change their minds about the virtue of the mission.
As Freeman Dyson said, "Interstellar travel...is essentially not a problem in physics or engineering but a problem in biology." (p. 130) He might well have added "psychology."
Another issue is that of sending out probes or self-replicating "Von Neumann machines" that would terra form the galaxy while endowing the new turf with the seed of their makers. But again, why would they? Darwinian biological creatures tend to reproduce to the carrying capacity of their environments; but any creatures that have the intelligence to colonize space would presumably be beyond such biological imperatives. In fact, the real question is why would any advanced society want to create more of its kind? It seems to me more likely that such creatures would want instead to observe life forms different from themselves in so far as possible. Michaud recalls that Andrew Clark and David Clark characterized sending out self-replicating probes as "galactic vandalism." Michaud adds that such probes could end up threatening the civilization that made them. (pp. 170-71) It's possible that sufficiently complex self-replicating machines could "evolve" into something with intentions very different from that of their creators.
There are historical examples of civilizations reigning in their exploratory and reproductive instincts, such as the Chinese before the European Age of Exploration, and the declining birth rates today in industrialized countries. It may very well be the case that once biological creatures reach a certain level of understanding, they stop all activity because there is no desire to do anything. If we build machines that have an intelligence vastly superior to ours, unless somehow the desire to continue is built into them, why would they continue?
I don't think anyone really interested in SETI can afford to miss this exciting book.