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Contraction & Convergence: The Global Solution to Climate Change (Schumacher Briefings)

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There is little doubt now - even amongst mainstream political and scientific circles - that climate change poses humankind's greatest ever challenge. "I am not being alarmist," says Meyer. "[But in] the worst case scenario, the survival of all but a tiny minority of the human race comes into question."

This is not simply because of the increasing amounts of CO2, methane and other greenhouse gases that humans are still pumping into the atmosphere, but because the earth's natural regulating systems are themselves in danger of being knocked out of kilter. In a recent model the UK-based Hadley Centre found that warming temperatures would kill tropical rainforests in Brazil - turning vast swathes of Amazonia into desert and grassland, and pouring still more carbon into the atmosphere. Several more 'positive feedbacks' threaten to have just as much of a catastrophic effect.

Yet the solutions which have been proposed so far, like the Kyoto Protocol, have failed to garner world-wide support. This book, which proposes the Contraction and Convergence model as an alternative way to bring down global emissions fairly, could hold the key.

It's really very simple. The Earth's biosphere only has the carrying capacity to absorb a certain amount of carbon per year - and humans have to cut their emissions to a safe level within it. That's 'contraction'. Within this carbon 'budget', every human being on the planet has an equal right to the use of the atmosphere, so countries which emit more than their per-capita fair share must reduce their emissions, whilst those which emit too little are allowed an increase. That's 'convergence'. In a world where 4% of the world's population in the US are able to emit 25% of its CO2, this brings the concept of equity - fairness, basically - to the fore.

For many, equity is a moral standpoint. But it also acts at the level of realpolitik - bringing into the climate process those heavily-populated countries like India and China which are planning to dramatically increase their fossil fuel consumption in the near future. Remember: even if the Kyoto cuts are implemented in full (which they won't be), world carbon emissions are set to increase anyway by some 30% mainly because of the developing world. Why should these countries deny themselves the benefits of electricity, heat and transport simply to support the profligate consumption of rich Europeans, Australians and Americans? In contrast, by recognising these countries' per capita emissions rights, and even allowing them to acquire a tradeable market value, Contraction and Convergence establishes an incentive for clean development.

If you want to know more, read this book. It's an invaluable and readable contribution to a complex - but incredibly important - issue.

Human-induced climate change is the greatest environmental threat today. Rising to this terrible challenge means overturning the global apartheid between rich and poor. For example, the United States, with a twentieth of the world's population, usurps a quarter of the global atmosphere to dump its pollution. Such inequity motivates this book's author: Aubrey Meyer, a musician who grew up in South Africa. In 1990, Meyer helped found the London-based Global Commons Institute to promote a simple and powerful concept that may yet break the deadlock of climate negotiations.

Simply put, everyone in the world has an equal right to emit greenhouse gas emissions. First, take the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change figure of 60 per cent cuts to stabilise global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by 2100. Second, calculate the level of pollution each nation should be allowed. The book's eye-catching computer graphics illustrate past emissions and future allocation of emissions by country, achieving per capita equality by 2030. Emissions thereafter fall to reach safe levels by 2100. Climate damage will still result, but disaster should be averted. Global emissions trading of per capita shares will ease transition costs to a zero-emissions lifestyle, Meyer argues.

This `contraction and convergence' (C&C) framework has gathered the support of a majority of the world's countries, including China and India. It may be the only approach that developing countries are willing to accept. That, in turn, may spur even the US to ratify the Kyoto protocol. However, Meyer warns that the `sub-global framework' of the protocol with its `guesswork' of market mechanisms and `inadequate' cuts `could prove worse than useless' because the public would be lulled into a false sense of security `that something is at last being done'. Meyer's argument is powerful, fuelled by compassion for the poor.

The crux of the matter is whether grassroots support for global equity will defeat the powerful elite interests that currently enjoy the status quo. As one US delegate put it: `We won the Cold War. Contraction & Convergence is Communism'!

Communism or not, accepting C&C would require that the developed world eschews dirty economic growth. If global weather-related damage continues its present trend of doubling every 7 years, then by around 2050 the costs of climate change could exceed the total value of everything that humanity produced over one year. Has global capitalism finally destroyed itself by its own success? Let's hope so.

Meyer's book on C&C has caused a sensation in the UK. C&C is now the basis of UK government policy and opinion forming in the media [see this comment from the Independent on Sunday newspaper last 07 12 2003].

"The future of the planet now rests in the hands of three people: President George Bush, President Vladimir Putin - and the unlikely figure of one Aubrey Meyer, a former concert violinist from east London. President Bush has set out to kill the Kyoto Protocol. Despite growing support in the US for addressing climate change, he has spared no effort in stopping it coming into effect. He is putting the screws on President Putin. Under the protocol's rules, it now only needs Russia's ratification to come into force. The signals from Moscow are mixed, but Putin is thought to be waiting to see whether the US or the European governments, who support Kyoto, will come up with the best price.

"And Mr Meyer? He is the still relatively unknown originator of a body that is fast becoming the leading contender in the fight against global warming, after Kyoto. To that end, he has set up the Global Commons Institute. Michael Meacher, the former Environment minister, endorses the plan - dubbed "contraction and convergence" - on page 22. The Royal commission on Environmental Pollution, the World Council of Churches, and African governments have all adopted it. Under the plan, every person on the planet would have the right to emit the same amount of carbon dioxide, which is the main cause of global warming. Each nation would be set quotas, adding up to a figure the world's climate could tolerate. They would be expected to meet them, say by 2050, and could buy and sell parts of them.

"Kyoto must be brought into force: there is no alternative. Then nations should start negotiating bigger cuts in pollution on this equitable basis - worked out in an unprepossessing London flat."

CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE: The Global Solution to Climate Change by Aubrey Meyer

Review by Dr. Mayer Hillman, Senior Fellow Emeritus, Policy Studies Institute, London, UK

Climate change caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from our past and present profligate energy-intensive lifestyles already appears to be having tragic consequences. If the reduction of these emissions to a relatively safe level is more important than the pursuit of economic growth, then it is clear that a framework for action is needed within which the reduction can be achieved.

This concise book profoundly and lucidly spells out such a framework. Its author, Aubrey Meyer, founder and director of the Global Commons Institute (GCI), logically calls it `Contraction and Convergence'. It requires the reduction to be completed within a timetable determined by scientific evidence whilst at the same time programming it towards an end-state of per capita emissions `shared out between people globally, equitably and sustainably'. This, he says, will deliver a clean and green form of prosperity which does not seriously prejudice the future of the planet. He argues convincingly that it is the only way of avoiding ecological catastrophe.

In addition to a devastating critique of the failure of economics to treat with the subject of the welfare of all mankind and the global environment, he provides a fascinating history of the process by which a transition has been made in the space of ten years from what was at first ridiculed as a totally unrealistic and impractical solution to a centre stage proposition at the heart of current climate change negotiations.

The effectiveness of his argument is reflected in a growing consensus around the world that `Contraction and Convergence' may indeed be the only realistic route to ecological salvation. For instance, last summer, the Royal Commission on Environment and Pollution and Jan Pronk, the Netherlands Environment Minister and Chairman of the Hague Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, supported the case for an international agreement based on the principle. In his environment speech in the City of London in the autumn, Prime Minister Blair acknowledged that the massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must be achieved on `an equitable basis'. A month later, in the Hague, President Chirac stated that `France proposes that we set as our ultimate objective the convergence of per capita emissions'. It is extraordinary that acknowledgement by these two world leaders and others of the relevance of the concept of equity to the subject, with its seismic implications for the future of economic growth, received almost no coverage in the media.

It is clear that radical changes are called for not only in the policies and practices of government, industry and the business community generally, but also in our own lifestyles. If these are to be conducted according to principles of conscience and survival, we cannot continue to play down the significance of climate change. The fact that greenhouse gas emissions remain in the atmosphere for several generations makes it urgent that we take our responsibilities on this portentous issue far more seriously.

I can think of no better investment of time and no more effective means of jolting people out of their complacency on the ramifications of global warming than to read this remarkable book.

February 2001

Published by Green Books on behalf of the Schumacher Society. ISBN 1 870098 94 3. £5.