Customer Reviews

Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran

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This is the most compelling book on Iran to date. Author Kenneth Timmerman was watching Iran's nuclear program before most journalists and policymakers believed it was a problem. Nobody has matched the methodology of the author, an investigative journalist whose tradecraft is every bit as thorough as an old-school intelligence officer. That methodology is what makes Countdown to Crisis so important. Timmerman didn't build his powerful story on electronic searches, a data dump from a government agency, leaks from disgruntled officials or the testimony of a defector or two. He didn't write it in response to the crisis du jour. This book is the product of years of careful and patient work with multiple sources, including an array of defectors whom the author debriefed repeatedly in face-to-face encountered. Timmerman risked his life in forsaken corners of the world to draw out unmatched facts and insights about Iran's nuclear weapons program. He saw the danger before it arrived. Now it's here. And he has the story.

It seems that the current non fiction environment lends its self to high drama works that, regardless of subject manner, all lead in the direction that the issue covered in the book is the most import of issue to be dealt with over the next so many years. This author also has a history of putting out books that seem to have a rather close relationship to the conservative issue of the day. So given this was my bias coming into this book you would think I would have nothing but negative comments, I assumed the same. The fact is the book is an enjoyable and interesting read. The author details out the growing issue that another Middle Eastern country is working to gain a nuclear weapon and what it might mean to us.

As much as it might pain me to say this, I agree with many of the authors claims. There is no other country today that has so openly and brazenly supported terror in the Middle East. Iran is a country that is working to gain more influence in the Middle East with hopes of becoming the leader of a Soviet Union style dictatorship over the Middle East to bring back the glory of the great Persian empire of the past. The leaders of the country are pursing a goal of the total destruction of Israel and a subjugation of the rest of us. The book talks abut the many missed opportunities and missteps that have lead us to this point and gives the reasons why we are going to be dealing with them in an adversarial relationship for many years to come.

Overall I really enjoyed the book. All over hype and drama aside, the author details out a threat to us as Americans if for no other reason then Iran is a country focused on objectives that a detrimental to our own and they happen to be in the most sensitive location on the planet today. I had to put aside my bias toward the author and in doing so I came away the better.

Countdown To Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown With Iran by investigative reporter and Middle East expert Ken Timmerman documents how the American intelligence community's arrogance, incompetence, and willful blindness have repeatedly kept us from dealing effectively or successfully with the Iranian nuclear threat. Countdown To Crisis reveals that the Iranian mullahs could already have enough nuclear material for 20 to 25 bombs; secret locations where Iran had been sheltering Osma bin Laden and Al-Qaeda forces who are collaborating with the Iranians to plain attacks against American and our allies; Iran's involvement in the 9/11 plot (including documents the CIA tried to withhold from the 9/11 Commission); an insider's account of how top Iranian leaders negotiated directly with North Korea's "Supreme Leader" to secure nuclear weapons assistance, and so much more. Every allegation is founded in documentation, every revelation is backed by evidence. Countdown To Crisis needs the widest possible readership it can achieve in order to end the political mismanagement that has so characterized the Bush administration's handling (and chronic mishandling) of the Iranian nuclear threat, the Iranian participation in global terrorism, and the brutality of the Iranian mullahs.

Thanks to the Washington Post, I now know how to review books without actually reading them, and furthermore, how to take nine paragraphs to say the simple, oft-repeated talking point, "Conservatives are nuts." The aforementioned media outlet would do well to consult the author's footnotes before accusing him of viewing Iran asthmatically, or any other way. Also, to take a shot at someone for giving their book a catchy title is asinine. I suppose the Post would prefer that Michael Moore change the name of his blockbuster documentary (so-called) "Fahrenheit 9/11" to "A Negative Critique of the Bush Administration's Handling of Terrorism Before and After September 11th, 2001."

That said, I myself am somewhat skeptical of substantially sized books on VERY current events when they come out. I ask myself the question, "How well could the author have authenticated himself in so short a time?" However, my skepticism does not determine reality, as the Washington Post's apparently does. Timmerman's book is exhaustively annotated for anyone who would dedicate the time to do the research. His bibliography provides as fine a path to verification as any. Whether or not the Washington Post's book reviewers are disposed to think critically about world affairs fortunately has no bearing on the course of history (or of the future). Read this book. Borrow it, if you must.

Kenneth Timmerman, an author known for his right leaning books and connections to the neo-conservative right wing truley surprised me with this book. After the "election" of a new radical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard) in Tehran and the restarting of Iranian efforts to become a nuclear power, this book becomes much more relevant.

Timmerman outlines how the Islamic Republic of Iran has been openly and secretly skirting IAEA, International groups, American and European efforts to create an atomic bomb and aquire advanced weapons. Timmerman also shows how Iran and al-Qaeda are working hand in hand against their "Western infedel" enemies.

The author utilizes his numerous connections to government intelligence figures and most spectacularly a high ranking Iranian official. He paints an excedingly scarier picture of what the Iranian regime will be capable of in the comming years.

The exploration in the arms dealing connection with a fellow "Axis of Evil" member North Korea was incredibly intriguing and scary. At some point Iran may have a very advanced ICBM. I think one of the most interesting portions of the book was how the author connects al-Qaeda to the Iranian regime, he shows through documents from his informant Mr. Motamer that "Bin Laden is one of the very few people who can pick up the phone and talk directly with Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in Tehran." (pg.174) In addition he describes Iran's external operations against the United States, Israel, and the West.

Quite possibly the most unnerving portion of the book had nothing to do with Iran having "the bomb" or conducting terrorist operations against Americans. It was that American leaders have tried to cover up the facts and have had numerous major intelligence lapses that have only increased Iranian resolve to attack us.

The current quagmire in Iraq is only exsaserbated by Iranian influence. With new tactics in terrorism and newly aquired super weapons, one must wonder why the US didn't pass over Iraq and strike at Iran. Because our armed forces are spread thinly across the world one wonders what can we do to resist increasing Iranian power.

Timmerman begins by relating how Hamid Zakeri (an Iranian intelligence agent) came to the U.S. Embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan on 7/26/01 with information about a planned big U.S. attack on 9/10/01. Zakeri had provided security for bin Laden's son, seen photos of the World Trade Center, White House, CIA headquarters, and the Pentagon on a wall in Iran's intelligence headquarters that was used to identify current targets, and also stated that six people trained as pilots had just left Iran as part of the plot. The Germans saw Zakeri as credible; the American CIA did not.

While only a 9/11 contributor, Iran was directly responsible for the '83 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut. Again, warning was provided - this time through a message intercepted 4 months prior. Unfortunately, it was not passed on until two days after the bombing. Navy Secretary Lehman is reported to have had no doubts as to Iranian and Syrian responsibility; Defense Secretary Weinberger, however, did and therefore pulled the plug on planned retaliation. This U.S. failure to respond, combined with our withdrawal was seen as weakness, per Osama bin Laden.

The hijacking of TWA flight 847 in 1985 and the U.S. Embassy bombing in 1983 are also attributed to Iran - according to Timmerman. Thus, Iran has credibly established itself as a serious source of terrorism.

In 1986 Iran then began an effort to develop atomic weapons, consulting and contracting with Pakistan's Khan - father of the "Islamic bomb." Following his advice, Iran also undertook mining uranium for enrichment with Khan-designed centrifuges - the beauty of this approach was that it avoided utilizing uranium that the IAEA knew Iran already had, and thus would avoid scrutiny.

Delivery systems came next. In 1988 China began helping Iran develop missiles, and North Korea then assisted with making longer-range versions.

Bomb-Making 101: Natural uranium is 0.7% fissionable U-235 - the rest is relatively benign U-238. Enriched to 4% U-235 it can be used to generate power; at 90% it is bomb material. Uranium hexafluoride (yellow-cake natural uranium with flouride added) spun at 60,000 rpm centrifuges can be enriched. An industrial-sized facility (bomb-making) requires about 50,000. Each is perched atop a tiny bearing that requires electrono-beam welding. Plastics explosives pumps are also required to move the powerful C4 etc. materials used to set off an A-bomb (and for powerful conventional explosives manufacture). Construction also requires vacuum melting furnaces to shape molten radioactive material into weapon cores. All these materials, except the locally mined uranium, have been acquired by Iran from other nations - eg. Germany, Pakistan, etc.

Bottom Line: Iran's "nuclear threat" is much more credible than Iraq's was. They have been deceiving the world for about 20 years in this regard, while also pursuing missile technology. Its facilities are dispersed and hardened against air attach. A showdown seems highly

Patrick Clawson said well, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have uncovered one hidden Iranian nuclear program after another during the last two and a half years. Tehran has now acknowledged having concealed (for eighteen years) a wide range of nuclear activities. Some of them have few peaceful applications but are directly useful for nuclear weapons. This surprising nuclear progress fits a context, for the Iranian regime has also tested long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and its Supreme Leader has proclaimed that Israel is a cancer that should be excised by being wiped off the map.

Iran's nuclear program has attracted much attention from governments and from authors intent on highlighting the Iranian threat. Some books are scaremongering, ill-informed, or both; in contrast, the Timmerman and Venter (Iran's Nuclear Option: Tehran's Quest for the Atom Bomb) books are solid accounts (as the forthcoming Iran's Strategic Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment from London's International Institute of Strategic Studies also promises to be).

Timmerman writes in a chatty style with much color about the various players, structuring his account around the interaction among the actors. Learning, for example, that German foreign minister Joschka Fischer is married to the daughter of an Iranian dissident illuminates the dynamics of policymaking. Timmerman's account is also extraordinarily well-informed, reflecting his years of association with the policy circles he describes. Unfortunately, he undermines his credibility by accepting too readily the accounts of some Iranian exiles, especially the defector Hamid Reza Zakeri, who tell hair-raising stories about Iranian hidden capabilities. Timmerman is correct that U.S. intelligence agencies have a bias against defectors, preferring assets they themselves cultivated, but Zakeri's accounts are at times suspiciously convenient. That said, Timmerman's Countdown is the book to read for an engaging peak behind the curtain.

Venter's Nuclear Option is the place to turn for technical details and footnoted references. It offers the most systematic exposition to date about Iran's nuclear program and its role in world affairs. After a solid introduction to the history and political culture of the Islamic Republic, with a solid exposition about Iran's support for terrorism, especially by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Venter carefully walks the reader through Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Along the way, he incorporates essays by leading experts from the Institute for Science and International Security (David Albright and Corey Hinderstein) and the Federation of American Scientists (Charles Vick). As might be expected from a South African author, Venter highlights the parallels between South Africa's successfully concealed nuclear program and what is known about Iran's efforts. Some of the most technical information is in appendices; nevertheless, his account does make for heavy reading.

Kenneth Timmerman's book reveals all of what the media failed to do over the past 15 plus years. Now we have a serious international problem involving several countries including Iran, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Syria and North Korea. I have published internationally on the history of weapons of mass destruction during the mid 90's. Not only has our Government allowed the previously mentioned countries to take the crucial steps for atomic and other WMD development, but the IAEA was a partner in these efforts. Western Europe and the EU profited greatly from the very questionable atomic related sales.

Mr. Timmerman's book should be required reading for all American's.

Mr. Timmerman provides a real service with his book, because he reinforces his views with hard facts, not conjecture. Its a real wake-up call for America and I would recommend his writing to every serious minded fellow Citizen.

Be prepared to hit the ground running and never stop when you start reading Ken Timmerman's chilling story of terrorist cruelty, CIA incompetence, and a looming crisis of incomprehensible magnitude. Countdown to Crisis is a painstakingly researched book that took years of digging in some very dangerous places. Timmerman lifts up the rock to expose the dark underside of the world of international Islamofascist terror, Iran's tireless quest for WMD, and a death threat to America. If this were a novel it would be a great read. That it is historical and contemporary affairs is a dagger pointing right at us all. This is a must read if you are going to understand the challenges that face America in a global war against fundamentalist Islam. Buy it today!