Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics [Hardcover]

Philip E. Tetlock (Editor), Aaron Belkin (Editor)

Book Description

Publication Date: August 19, 1996

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Editorial Reviews

Review

The book sets out to examine the many roles that counterfactuals and counterfactual reasoning play in the study of world politics. It has many merits. The quality of the papers is high. It is well edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin. It succeeds very well in building on earlier discussions of counterfactuals in social science, from Weber to Elster, and linking them with a wide range of concrete problems and issues in international relations. -- Andrew Hurrell, The Times Literary Supplement --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

From the Back Cover

"Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics is an important book for all social scientists, not only those who study international relations. The introductory paper, outlining different ways of using counterfactual arguments, is likely to become a standard reading in courses on methodology and research design. Many of the other chapters are outstanding; some are brilliant. When I next teach my graduate seminar on research design, this book will be on the required reading list."--Robert Keohane, Duke University

"[This] is an important book for all social scientists, not only those who study international relations. . . . When I teach my next graduate seminar on research design, this book will be on the required reading list."--Robert Keohane, Duke University

--This text refers to the Paperback edition.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 364 pages
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr (August 19, 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0691027927
• ISBN-13: 978-0691027920
• Product Dimensions: 9.8 x 6.5 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #7,716,442 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

2 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Essential Reading for Political Scientists, Historians & Theoretically Sophisticated Policy-Makers, March 31, 2007

By 

Dr. Milo Jones "Dr. Milo Jones" (EU & USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Paperback)

This book is a huge help in untangling the role (usually unconscious) that counterfactual reasoning plays in every-day political thought, public dialogue, and policy. In particular, if one has reached the stage of "Thinking about thinking" in world politics, get this book for the early chapters on theory.