19 of 20 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
A thought-provoking and perhaps momentus book, January 27, 2000
This review is from: The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression (Hardcover)
The other 12 reviews existing at the time of this writing indicate that most reviewers think Batra's work is either great or trash. I suspect our views are strongly influenced by our predisposition.
This is a great book. First, it gives the layman an overview of how economies work -- how employment, debt, deficit, inflation, interest rates, stock prices, etc. are all related. I have long been looking for that and appreciate finally having a satisfying "big picture".
Second, Batra summarizes historical statistics which show a cyclic behavior of inflation and money growth, and imply that we are due for a decade of strong inflation, something useful to know.
Third, he presents a nice summary of what happened to other faltering countries in the world in the decade of the 1990s, whose stories I have desired to know but not seen in the media.
Fourth, he predicts a USA stock market crash in the period late 1999 to early 2000, followed by a long-term inflationary depression.
I was indifferent to or in disagreement with some parts of the book, but his insights into how economics works, national economic histories, and his warning about the US economic "bubble" about to burst make it a valuable book. I believe his analysis, and have taken his advice to heart. Only time will tell whether this is a great book or trash.
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11 of 12 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Sharp is the visitor's eye, June 10, 2000
This review is from: The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression (Hardcover)
Anyone faulting Ravi Batra for occasional failed or half-failed predictions, should give him his due. Here is a man that correctly called:
--the collapse of Soviet Communism (in 1978) , --the rise of the stock market bubble (in 1984) , --the drop in inflation in the 1990s (in 1983) , --the start of Iran-Iraq war in 1980 (1979) , --the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1987 (1979) , --the US banking crisis of 1990 (1985) , --the Japanese stock market crash in 1990 (1985)
He has also called for (repeatedly, but without luck)
--US stock market crash , --global economic depression , --collapse of Capitalism (age of aquisitors) , --a coming golden age, lead by a class of warriors , --the re-mergence of inflation ,
I would think, someone making these calls should be taken seriously, even if the timing is difficult. There are so many changes that have occurred in the world in the past few decades that could have postponed these developments. These could include:
(i) virtually unlimited domestic bank insurance , (ii) responsive and efficacious macropolicies , (iii) structural shifts in the global economy , (iv) the present international monetary , system, with its ample 'fiat' money liquidity, (v) the morally hazardous practice of governments and the IMF bailing out large investors when their bets in risky international markets go wrong .
All these things have surely played a role in bringing about and extending the present but fragile world prosperity. I say fragile, because stock markets are still at exorbitant levels (lest we forget), while interest rates are moving up -- a truly lethal combination.
Moreover, based on the interesting cyclical theory of history that Batra works off, I believe history is still playing out, and we have not reached some permanent plateau of social development -- an end to history -- as Francis Fukyama suggests in "The End of History".
To put things in perspective. Ravi Batra came to the west as a wide-eyed young man from India in the mid 1960s. There is a saying that "Sharp is the visitor's eye". Fortunately, he also had a good brain behind those seeing eyes. I, for one, appreciate the work of this brillian writer and visionary. For anyone with an open mind to these weighty issues above, I recommend his works enthusiastically and unreservedly.
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7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Batra predicts stock market crash and inflation.., October 1, 1999
By A Customer
This review is from: The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression (Hardcover)
This book is scary. Ordinarily this would be, because the author predicts tough times ahead. However, the real scary part is that he "cried wolf" before and now many are likely to turn a deaf ear to a real warning. This book deonstrates that capitalism is at a cross-roads. The share price euphoria in the US has been achieved through exceptional factors that are in the process of being reversed. The massive foreign lending to the US of the past two decades is rapidly coming to an end. Oil prices have jumped from their lows. The dollar is in a slow motion fall which will raise the price of imports. These factors will lead to higher interest rates and then the curtains will come down on the roaring 90s (or early 00s) in a big way. No one will be left untouched by the ensuing calamaity. If you think the stock market is only headed higher, never mind....
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