Customer Reviews

The Crash of the Millennium: Surviving the Coming Inflationary Depression

5 star:		(12)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(4)
2 star:		(4)
1 star:		(6)

 

 

The other 12 reviews existing at the time of this writing indicate that most reviewers think Batra's work is either great or trash. I suspect our views are strongly influenced by our predisposition.

This is a great book. First, it gives the layman an overview of how economies work -- how employment, debt, deficit, inflation, interest rates, stock prices, etc. are all related. I have long been looking for that and appreciate finally having a satisfying "big picture".

Second, Batra summarizes historical statistics which show a cyclic behavior of inflation and money growth, and imply that we are due for a decade of strong inflation, something useful to know.

Third, he presents a nice summary of what happened to other faltering countries in the world in the decade of the 1990s, whose stories I have desired to know but not seen in the media.

Fourth, he predicts a USA stock market crash in the period late 1999 to early 2000, followed by a long-term inflationary depression.

I was indifferent to or in disagreement with some parts of the book, but his insights into how economics works, national economic histories, and his warning about the US economic "bubble" about to burst make it a valuable book. I believe his analysis, and have taken his advice to heart. Only time will tell whether this is a great book or trash.

Anyone faulting Ravi Batra for occasional failed or half-failed predictions, should give him his due. Here is a man that correctly called:

--the collapse of Soviet Communism (in 1978) , --the rise of the stock market bubble (in 1984) , --the drop in inflation in the 1990s (in 1983) , --the start of Iran-Iraq war in 1980 (1979) , --the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1987 (1979) , --the US banking crisis of 1990 (1985) , --the Japanese stock market crash in 1990 (1985)

He has also called for (repeatedly, but without luck)

--US stock market crash , --global economic depression , --collapse of Capitalism (age of aquisitors) , --a coming golden age, lead by a class of warriors , --the re-mergence of inflation ,

I would think, someone making these calls should be taken seriously, even if the timing is difficult. There are so many changes that have occurred in the world in the past few decades that could have postponed these developments. These could include:

(i) virtually unlimited domestic bank insurance , (ii) responsive and efficacious macropolicies , (iii) structural shifts in the global economy , (iv) the present international monetary , system, with its ample 'fiat' money liquidity, (v) the morally hazardous practice of governments and the IMF bailing out large investors when their bets in risky international markets go wrong .

All these things have surely played a role in bringing about and extending the present but fragile world prosperity. I say fragile, because stock markets are still at exorbitant levels (lest we forget), while interest rates are moving up -- a truly lethal combination.

Moreover, based on the interesting cyclical theory of history that Batra works off, I believe history is still playing out, and we have not reached some permanent plateau of social development -- an end to history -- as Francis Fukyama suggests in "The End of History".

To put things in perspective. Ravi Batra came to the west as a wide-eyed young man from India in the mid 1960s. There is a saying that "Sharp is the visitor's eye". Fortunately, he also had a good brain behind those seeing eyes. I, for one, appreciate the work of this brillian writer and visionary. For anyone with an open mind to these weighty issues above, I recommend his works enthusiastically and unreservedly.

This book is scary. Ordinarily this would be, because the author predicts tough times ahead. However, the real scary part is that he "cried wolf" before and now many are likely to turn a deaf ear to a real warning. This book deonstrates that capitalism is at a cross-roads. The share price euphoria in the US has been achieved through exceptional factors that are in the process of being reversed. The massive foreign lending to the US of the past two decades is rapidly coming to an end. Oil prices have jumped from their lows. The dollar is in a slow motion fall which will raise the price of imports. These factors will lead to higher interest rates and then the curtains will come down on the roaring 90s (or early 00s) in a big way. No one will be left untouched by the ensuing calamaity. If you think the stock market is only headed higher, never mind....

Ravi Batra writes with the kind of ease and clarity that most economists can only dream of. While Robert Heilbroner is also a brilliant writer in this field, with his deep sociological insights, no one can match Batra's deeper social science insights still. His is the world of a thinker posessed with a spirit and view of life that transcends time, place and person, but is at home in the here and now. He grasps the inner meaning of complex processes rooted in human nature and makes them clear to the reader. Those type of insights are usually absent in the works of the run of the mill specialists. For instance, the well known mainstream economist, Paul Krugman, professes an oversight of his field. But, sorry to say, he falls victim to the details of the superfical analytical trivia he seeks to explain. Because he writes to history, Batra's books have a life that will keep them fresh, long after the hardnosed mathematical proofs of modern economic rectitude, and their interpreters, are shriveled piles of dust. Ravi Batra is not only a superb economist, but a veritable mystic. There has never been his like, and there probably never will. His genius recalls the likes of Thorstein Veblen and Joseph Schumpeter, economist-writers earlier this century, who also wrote best sellers that stirred at the foundations of their discipline. This book is for people who want a new understanding of the economy they inhabit, as living, breathing people, and what the future may hold. It is full of the unexpected. If Batra is right, there may be difficulties ahead. But just over the horizon awaits a good future indeed, and very different from what the unimaginative linear minds project. His is, by far, the more profound and meaningful understanding of the human historical process, and where it is taking us. Although in a group of books listed as a must read, it is superbly enjoyable from start to finish.

Dr. Batra has hit bullseye with his prediction the stock market would collapse.

Today, 9/21/01, the Nasdaq rests at 1423, having fallen precipitously from 5080 in March 2000. That's a drop of 72%. At 8223, the Dow has fallen 30% from its December 1999 peak of 10600. I know, he called it before, and the market survived. Can anyone deny that Batra has finally been proved right?

That said, the book is excellent, even if the Y2K part is dated.

This book was one of two recommended by Dr. Ravi
Batra to give introductory and background info to help appreciate and understand the PROUT (Progressive Utility Theory)as further presented in "After Capitalism". It is well written and enables understanding of what has been going on in the World under the misleading title: "Free Market Democracy". Citizens of the world should read these books and put their lessons into practice before it is too late.

Batra's book is outstanding for applying three ideas. First, the balance of supply and demand is essential to stability. His approach is vastly superior to that of suppply siders. Secondly, he applies his theory of development of civilization -- the cyclic theory of military, intellectual and commercial power centers -- to practical forecasting. Thirdly, his discussion of the role of globalization of trade and tariffs is right on. However, he never quite explains the reasons behind the benefits of tariffs, namely that governments and societies must be able to negotiate with capital about taxes, labor policies etc., which national governments have not been able to do effectively so far in a global economy.

The book is significantly marred in two respects. First, he claims that important events tend to cluster in years ending in 9 in the 20th century, and he expected this trend to continue at least through 1999. Such numerology is incongruous in such a deep book. Secondly, he makes forecasts about specific years and even quarters that his methods simply do not support. This spurious precision detracts from the credibility of the great ideas in the book.

Terrific in its amazing forecast of what was to come. Although the crumbling of Wall Street happened systematically from the small caps demise, followed by the NASDAQ, and then the sudden implosion of the banking and finance stocks in 2008, Ravi nailed the demise of the U.S. economy squarely. He also forecast the appeal of gold in a brilliant description of the flight to safety to that safe haven for investors. In the most chilling segment, he ominously wrote of the the coming problems of Southern Europe, unfolding before our eyes as you read this.
Obviously you ignore the millennium bug chapter since we all know that ended up as bogus.

This book is behind Ravi's other great books :

1. Greenspan's Fraud
2. The Myth of Free Trade: The Pooring of America
3. The New Golden Age

As all of Dr. Batra's books, it is full of the most accurate and honest assessment of the world's economic problems, which are ususally at root in the U.S. or Europe.

Looking at Batra's reveiw of his own predictions and comparing them to my own version of reality, I would say he has been pretty accurate in much of what he said previously. BUT, and it's an important but, they have tended not to happen precisely when he says or with the severity he has predicted. His idea that significant events occur in the last year of each decade must be plain crazy: he says for example 1929 sowed the seeds of disaster because it was the start of the depression - wrong! The seeds were sown in 1927/8. You could just as easily claim that each year ending in 4, 5, 6 or any other decimal number was significant!

That said, there is certainly truth in some part of what he says - America is way overborrowed, and that could portend of a crash.

Most economists agree the objective of capitalistic development is the accumulation of capital. Where the economists differ is in their interpretation if this is a good or bad thing. Ravi Batra belongs to a novel school of thought that thinks this is a good thing at the outset but becomes a bad thing over time. This is because the class of guardians of capital, the owners, builds wealth through sheer prudence, foresight and courage in productive enterprise. Over time, as wealth passes to generations raised in luxury, the virtues degenerate. At the same time, the class of owners becomes a mix of old money and new. Where the new money has some of the old virtues, the old money now has none of it. The social (including work) ethic degenerates over time. At some stage, it doesn't matter HOW one makes and expands a fortune but only that you DO. Part of the transformation of capitalism is its evolution from productive enterprise to financial activities, where unearned gains become the propagating mechanism for the class of wealthy. Speculative bubbles begin to take over in financial markets from time to time. When the bubbles burst, as they inevitably will, the social consensus is challenged. Each burst becomes a bigger challenge to maintain the order. At some state, a class of military leaders wrest control to re-establish order.

As for the bubbles, when share prices surge the wealth of those with capital in the markets expands in relation to the rest who do not own wealth. The amount of wealth becomes more unevenly distributed, even if a middle class has some. The growing divergence accelerates the decline in the social ethic. Also, helping the decline is the faltering social responsibility of employers to their workers, which promotes a feeling of alienation by the HAVE-NOTS to the HAVES.

In short, what Dr. Batra is writing about is a larger historical dynamic or evolution. He is not a technical analyst looking at stock charts for signs of a bullish reversal, or an economist strictly measuring the development in terms of the mix of fiscal and monetary policies. His frame of reference is much bigger than that. He is writing about a historical context based on his interpretation. At the same time, what really makes his work so fascinating, is his deep insight into the larger collective philosophy. He writes about the degeneration in social and environmental conditions associated with a human project based on a materialistic worldview. He proposes a much better framework for human beings, a spiritual framework, based on the ideas of his great mentor, PR Sarkar.

It is in this way that his books should be approached. Exact timing is difficult for all, but at least with Dr. Batra's work it is possible to gain an understanding of the social dynamic behind the developments and to see a positive way forward. Dr. Batra's works are a profound contribution. That said, his predictions have been quite accurate. Just look at a chart of stock prices from 1980 to 2002. It clearly reveals a huge bubble from 1983 to 1999 and a plunge since then. We are seeing the bursting before our very eyes. This is the history he his describing and explaining. That is a great achievement indeed!