Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis [Hardcover]

James Rickards (Author)

Book Description

Release date: November 10, 2011

In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

Editorial Reviews

Review

“One of the most urgent books of the fall.”

—Mike Allen, Politico

 

“Let’s hope he’s wrong.”

—Financial Times

 

“Rickards . . . has written one of the scariest books I’ve read this year. Though I was tempted at first to dismiss him as alarmist, his intelligent reasoning soon convinced me that we have more to fear than fear itself. Part history, part primer and analysis, the text covers topics ranging from the “misuse of economics” to complexity theory. The pieces, although disparate, fit together snugly, as in one of those mystery jigsaw puzzles that come with clues in lieu of cover art. The picture that emerges is dark yet comprehensive and satisfying.”

—Bloomberg Businessweek

 

“Unsettling . . . fascinating . . . a thorough analysis of how nations have manipulated their currencies . . . with disastrous consequences.”

—Fort Worth Star-Telegram

 

“Buy Currency Wars if you want to learn the history and language of the global currency markets and the political economy which they support.”

—Chris Whalen, Ritholtz.com

 

“Jim Rickards highlights dangerous dynamics between national security and the international financial markets. What we assumed was firm ground under our feet is more like the narrowing point of a precipice. Our politicians, national security experts, and financial markets, each chasing carrots dangling in front of them, fail to see that they are leading America right off the edge.”

—Charles A. Duelfer, former special adviser to the director of the CIA; author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq

 

“Put on your flak vest and helmet and enter the dangerous battlefield of global finance. Jim Rickards takes you through a captivating roller-coaster ride—the past, the present, and a look at the problematical future of our ongoing currency wars.”

—Rear Admiral (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, chief of staff, Fifth Fleet; recipient, Distinguished Service Medal

About the Author

James Rickards is a counselor, investment banker, and risk manager with over thirty years' experience in capital markets. He advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance, and served as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. A frequent guest on CNBC, CNN, Fox, C-SPAN, Bloomberg TV, and NPR, Rickards also lectures at Northwestern University and at the School of Advanced International Studies.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 304 pages
• Publisher: Portfolio Hardcover; 1 edition (November 10, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1591844495
• ISBN-13: 978-1591844495
• Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1.2 x 9.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (241 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #13,954 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #13 in Books > Business & Investing > Economics > Money & Monetary Policy
  • #18 in Books > Business & Investing > International > Economics
  • #18 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > International & World Politics > Security

More About the Author

James Rickards is the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published by Penguin/Portfolio, November 2011.

He is Senior Managing Director at Tangent Capital Partners LLC, a merchant bank based in New York City, and is Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., a technical, professional and scientific consulting firm located in McLean, VA. Mr. Rickards is a seasoned counselor, investment banker and risk manager with over thirty years experience in capital markets including all aspects of portfolio management, risk management, product structure, financing, regulation and operations. Mr. Rickards' market experience is focused in alternative investing and derivatives in global markets. He has also served as General Counsel at several alternative asset management companies and a stock exchange facility and is expert in fund governance and international fund structures.

Mr. Rickards' career spans the period since 1976 during which he was a first hand participant in the formation and growth of globalized capital markets and complex derivative trading strategies. He has held senior executive positions at sell side firms (Citibank and RBS Greenwich Capital Markets) and buy side firms (Long-Term Capital Management and Caxton Associates) as well as technology firms (OptiMark Technologies and Omnis). Mr. Rickards has been a direct participant in many of the most significant financial events in recent decades including the release of US hostages in Iran in 1981 and the LTCM hedge fund collapse of 1998 in which Mr. Rickards was the principal negotiator of the government-sponsored rescue. He was involved in the formation and successful launch of several hedge funds and fund-of-funds. His advisory clients include private investment funds, investment banks, litigation counsel, high-net worth individuals and government directorates. Since 2001, Mr. Rickards has applied his financial expertise to a variety of tasks for the benefit of the U.S. national security community and the Department of Defense. Mr. Rickards is licensed to practice law in New York and New Jersey and various Federal Courts and has held all major financial industry licenses.

Mr. Rickards has been a frequent speaker at conferences sponsored by bar associations and industry groups in the fields of derivatives, the international monetary system and hedge funds and is active in the International Bar Association. He has been the interviewed in The Wall Street Journal and on CNBC, Fox, CNN, NPR and C-SPAN and is an OpEd contributor to the Financial Times, New York Times and the Washington Post.

Mr. Rickards is a graduate school visiting lecturer in finance at Northwestern University, the School of Advanced International Studies and Singularity University. He has delivered papers on econophysics at the Applied Physics Laboratory, the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the NASA Ames Research Center. Mr. Rickards has written articles published in academic and professional journals in the fields of strategic studies, cognitive diversity, network science and risk management. He is an advisor to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) Support Group of the Director of National Intelligence.

Mr. Rickards holds the following degrees: LL.M. (Taxation) from the New York University School of Law, New York City; J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School, Philadelphia; M.A. in international economics from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC; and a B.A. degree with honors from the Krieger School of Arts & Sciences of The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore.

Mr. Rickards is married, the father of three and lives in Darien, Connecticut. He is an avid sailor with extensive cruising experience in the Caribbean, Mediterranean and New England. He is also an experienced mountaineer following expeditions in the Alps, Andes, Cascades, Canadian Rockies and the Alaska Range.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

255 of 267 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars The best thing since sliced bread? November 11, 2011

By Erez Davidi

Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase

Jim Rickards, who is famous, among other things, for his ability to accurately predict the Fed's moves ahead of time. His most recent accurate call was the implementation of Operation Twist, i.e the selling of short-term government debt and the buying of long-term government debt in order to increase short-term interest rates and decrease long-term interest rates.

The main theme of the book is that the world is already heading toward a full-blown currency war which will bring even harsher economic turmoil to the world economy than the one we experienced in the last three years since the housing bubble burst in the U.S.

Rickards explores in depth, basing his arguments on past currency wars such as the one after WW1 between several European countries and the U.S., and why currency wars are a lose-lose situation. In short, Rickards's main argument is that countries around the world are devaluing their currencies in order to boost their exports (domestically produced goods and services will be cheaper for foreigners) thereby increasing their GDP. However, such actions will frequently be met by mutual currency devaluation by other countries or by some protectionist policy such as tariffs. Therefore, countries will gain a temporary advantage until other countries retaliate, the end result of which will be: inflation brought on from currency devaluation, protectionism and the halt of free trade, thus - wealth destruction. And in a worst case scenario, an outright military conflict.

As was mentioned above, I found Rickards's thesis to be well argued and backed with plenty of historical facts. To sum up, this book just has it all, great and engaging writing, fascinating economic history, and shrewd analysis of the current and coming global crisis.

131 of 138 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis November 10, 2011

By Pamela Farley

Format:Hardcover

No one is safe from Rickards' insightful analysis in this original and fast-paced history of world economic and monetary policy and the currency wars that have led to destructive outcomes more than once in the last hundred years. Despite the fact that repeated manipulation of currency by various countries throughout recent history in an attempt to dominate trade and spur domestic economic growth has failed miserably, the U.S. now faces a new currency war that might be, as Rickards says, "the currency war to end all currency wars." His disdain for the use of Quantitative Easing and the creation of a new world central bank is palpable and the urgency with which he makes his argument is cogent and frankly, terrifying. Rickards tells a fascinating story, taking the reader from the use of gold as an international currency in the Sixth century BC up to the current day, seamlessly connecting historical events in a manner that will appeal to experts and novices alike. His reductionist descriptions and gallows humor spares no one, and his analogies are both informative and beautifully written. Currency Wars is a must read for everyone, from classically-trained economists to small-time investors. But beware: after you read this book, instead of stuffing your mattress with cash, you may be inclined to do so with gold bullion.

180 of 200 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Unlike 2008...this time we've been warned. November 10, 2011

By Terri Walters

Format:Hardcover

If you have the stomach for doing a deep dive into the causes and cures of the worldwide financial morass we're in, here it is! "Currency Wars" takes you on a journey unlike any other. From a firsthand account of the wranglings at a mock "financial war game" in the bowels of the Pentagon, through a rich and literate history of previous currency wars with their devastating outcomes, Rickards is in full command of his topic. The author then brings us right up to present moment where he offers possible endgame scenarios to this latest currency war: paper, gold, or chaos! With outcome uncertain and stakes sky high, the tension is palpable! The final chapter is simply mind blowing! But that's not all. "Currency Wars" isn't simply an economics or history book. Rickards gives us a lot more. Chapter 9 is the most stinging indictment yet of the policy and intellectual failures of the Fed, Keynesianism and Monetarism. When you finish Chapter 9 your faith in economic conventional wisdom will be thoroughly shattered. The author also offers up some of the most original theory and analysis in economics since John Maynard Keynes himself in the 1920's. It's conceptually challenging but well worth the effort.

Unlike the financial meltdown of '08, this time you can say you've been warned. Extremely timely, and yet ahead of its time, "Currency Wars" is a revelation. The Media and politicians are so far behind the curve on this story that once they start giving it some weight it will already be too late to save yourself financially. You must read this book now!