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7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century Kindle Edition

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Length: 402 pages Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled

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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most insightful voices we now have on national security issues. You can read this book—or we can go on learning the hard way.” —Thomas E. Ricks, military correspondent, Washington Post, and author of Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq

“This insightful and provocative book must be read by our nation’s leaders, and those who are charged with protecting us now and into the next decade.” —Bing West, author of The Strongest Tribe and No True Glory

“Andrew Krepinevich has shown, once again, how best to think about the unthinkable. This prescient book identifies the all-too-real threats that our country faces and prescribes the steps that the president, the military, and Congress must take to meet them.” —Senator Joe Lieberman

“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most original and insightful strategic thinkers of our time….His thought provoking scenarios of the most critical areas of national security policy raise profound and necessary questions that must be addressed today in order to prevail tomorrow.” —Senator Jack Reed

“Compelling.... the scenarios vividly illustrate how recent changes in technology, demographics, economics and war-fighting can expose little-suspected, but easily exploited, chinks in America's armor.... I would feel ... reassured today to see President Barack Obama with a copy of military futurist Krepinevich's 7 Deadly Scenarios. Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates would do well to put it on their reading lists, too. And so should you.”—Wall Street Journal


From the Hardcover edition.

About the Author

Andrew F. Krepinevich is the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent policy research institute. A graduate of West Point and Harvard, he has served as a consultant on military affairs for the Department of Defense and the CIA, among other institutions. He currently serves on the Defense Policy Board and the Transformation Advisory Group of Joint Forces Command.
 


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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful By lyndonbrecht on February 1, 2015
Format: Paperback
This is not so easy a book to rate. The writing is so-so, sometimes good and sometimes not so good. The seven deadly scenarios are not necessarily deadly; it seems to me that the most dangerous and perhaps the most likely, are the disintegration of Pakistan and what happens to its nuclear weapon inventory, and the possibility of small nuclear devices going off in the USA, devices obtained secretly by criminal means from Russia.

The book has its moments. It begins well, noting that in 1932 an American naval war game had a carrier attack on Oahu, but the surprise was disallowed by game umpires. His point is that envisioning a future scenario is useful--but this example (he has a couple of others) sabotages the point, because if the implications are dismissed, the exercise has failed.

His scenarios are plausible, but seem set in the Islamic terrorist mode. There are other possible modes, perhaps fundamentalist Hinduism setting Pakistan on fire by stealing an Indian weapon; or one of the narco-terrorist groups seizing control of a country and buying weapons. He also did not look at bioterrorism or the possibility of weaponization of natural phenomena such as hurricanes.

A detail that bothers me is fake citations. He uses them to give authenticity to scenarios set in the near term future, but mixed in with real notes, I found it jarring and impossible to really tell which was fiction. He says early that the device is to enhance the narrative, which it does. But it is still jarring.

Other reviews seem to find the author racist in the sense of consistent negative comments about Islam.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Juan Vitali on March 20, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition
Krepinevich addresses scenarios that are only talked about and seldom discussed in detail in the Pentagon. Most of the scenarios are addressed in the latest DoD strategy papers. However, some are not.
In light of sequestration, and the maddening emphasis on cutting defense, the book seems incomplete without a resourcing Analysis, including trade offs that will need to be made to reduCe the budget deficit and eventually the debt. Otherwise, this is an excellent resource on strategic thinking for the defense of our country. It is incisive and eye opening. Highly recommend it. (Submitted by a current student of NDU).
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Rene Ramirez on September 27, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
This book is scary, but good scary. It sets out 7 scenarios that that are possible to occur to upset not only America but the world. It does a public service by pointing out that the failures in planning and preparation that are actually occurring right now will have consequenses. It's a warning that we should take some basic rational steps to control or direct the future course of events. There is a basic message here- plan for controlling future events or the events will control you.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Christopher Corson on March 12, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
The advantage of history to look back and see the trends of the past and how they impacted the developments that actually did happen.

This book does a good job of projecting present developments onto the near and medium term future.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By John Chandler on December 19, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Not a hard read and a real must for those who need facts for form answers. The author presents his theses with clear understandable and supportable points of view.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By jackyl on February 14, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Great book. Must read for scervice members. This book brings to light things that are not thought of. It is worth the read. Not as dry as art of war.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Garrett Johnson on December 5, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Read it, you will impress your friends with how politically astute you are in your assessment of future foreign policy!
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By Jorge Dengo Garron on February 10, 2014
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
A thought provoking book, with different scenarios of varying likelihood. Well worth the time for anyone interested in military history, strategic thinking, wargames and even role playing.
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