7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century (Hardcover)

~ Andrew Krepinevich (Author)
Key Phrases: iron cap, grand bargain, whitehouse gov accessed, United States, Persian Gulf, World War (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review

“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most insightful voices we now have on national security issues. You can read this book—or we can go on learning the hard way.” —Thomas E. Ricks, military correspondent, Washington Post, and author of Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq

“This insightful and provocative book must be read by our nation’s leaders, and those who are charged with protecting us now and into the next decade.” —Bing West, author of The Strongest Tribe and No True Glory

“Andrew Krepinevich has shown, once again, how best to think about the unthinkable. This prescient book identifies the all-too-real threats that our country faces and prescribes the steps that the president, the military, and Congress must take to meet them.” —Senator Joe Lieberman

“Andrew Krepinevich is one of the most original and insightful strategic thinkers of our time….His thought provoking scenarios of the most critical areas of national security policy raise profound and necessary questions that must be addressed today in order to prevail tomorrow.” —Senator Jack Reed

“Compelling.... the scenarios vividly illustrate how recent changes in technology, demographics, economics and war-fighting can expose little-suspected, but easily exploited, chinks in America's armor.... I would feel ... reassured today to see President Barack Obama with a copy of military futurist Krepinevich's 7 Deadly Scenarios. Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates would do well to put it on their reading lists, too. And so should you.”—Wall Street Journal

Product Description

A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.

What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?

These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.

Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.

As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 352 pages
• Publisher: Bantam (January 27, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0553805398
• ISBN-13: 978-0553805390
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.4 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #20,051 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Sobering reading, March 7, 2009

By	Paul Lappen (Manchester, CT USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Looking at the changing face of war in the 21st Century, this book looks at several deadly scenarios that will threaten America's, and the world's, security in the near future.

A large part of the world's oil tankers have to travel through two geographic choke points: the Strait of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, and the Persian Gulf. What would happen to the price of oil, and the world economy, if one was closed because a supertanker was sunk in the most inconvenient spot, and the other was closed because Iran decided to flex its political muscle?

Muslim terrorists set off several black-market nuclear weapons in US cities. Beset with internal strife, China decides to take back Taiwan, once and for all. They also send diesel submarines all over the world, to cause lots of economic trouble for any country who considers doing something about it. The Pakistani government collapses, and some of its nuclear weapons find their way into the hands of the more fundamentalist members of the military. There's one about America dealing with a major cyberattack, and one about what will happen after America withdraws from Iraq (faster than it intended). Remember bird flu, from a couple of years ago? Well, it's back, mutated into a form that can be easily transmitted from person to person. Shopping malls and other public places are deserted, hospitals are flooded with the sick and dying, America doesn't have nearly enough retroviral drugs even for emergency personnel, and it takes time to make more. To make things worse, the White House has just gotten word of a human flood of 8 million sick Latin Americans, desperate to reach America. They are scheduled to reach the US-Mexican border in a couple of days.

This is avery sobering, and utterly fascinating, look at what the future may hold. It's not an attempt to predict the future, but to show the sort of things that senior planners at the Pentagon are, or had better be, thinking about. Highly recommended.

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Clarion Call , March 31, 2009

By	Charles Drobny "HarpethStation" (Houston, TX) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

7 Deadly Scenarios is a logically presented, well written and nicely crafted wake up call for the defense establishment and the Nation. Krepinevich uses history to illustrate how ill prepared we are for the next likely conflict. The scenarios are as believable as they are horrific both in the scope of the threats and our inability to parry them effectively. It is not hard to imagine a few million Mexicans fleeing a pandemic and streaming unchallenged across the Rio Grande. The circumstances leading to each are believable, appropriately documented and accurately portrayed. A smuggled nuke explodes in San Antonio and paralyzes first responders across Texas.

The narratives read like a newspaper account should - factual and devoid of commentary or political agenda. The writing style oscillates between scholarly presentation and captivating contemporary thriller. As a reader you get scared by the threats, alarmed by the facts and enthralled by the projections.

These are not pie-in-the-sky scare tactics by some minor novelist stacking assumption upon nonsense. Krepinevich is a strategic insider who knows the players; but unlike much of what comes out of Washington, he writes without ideological agenda. He lines up his facts and presents them constantly whether meshed into the narratives or included in the ubiquitous footnotes. Unlike most of the bias that comes out of Washington this author has no deep agenda other than the security and prosperity of the United States. His purpose is as clarion call to warn us to action out of our insistence on preparing for the last conflict not the one we'll surely face.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars A disturbing peek over the military horizon ..., May 25, 2009

By	Kevin Quinley "GeezerJock" (Fairfax, VA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Author Andrew Krepinevich has written a chilling cluster of future scenarios in which American power, society and safety may be challenged by both conventional and unconventional foes. 9/11 was minor league compared to some of the situations he describes.

Krepinevich is neither predicting nor ruling out these set pieces, aiming to stimulate strategic thinking and planning for the American military as part of its war gaming.

One can only hope that such scenarios remain in the realm of the abstract. Nevertheless, hope is not a strategy and it is this reader's hope that "Seven Deadly Scenarios" becomes must reading at the Pentagon in order to heighten U.S. preparedness for a perilous world bristling with threats.