This book provides a synthesis of the theory of decision making and its practical application in decision analysis. Part 1 provides a detailed guide to the principles of decision theory. The authors introduce the literature on key ideas such as value theory, subjective probability theory and utility theory, and assess how these ideas, developed for individual decision makers, may apply to decision-making within organisations. Part 2 deals with the various strategies and techniques employed in decision analysis, and the application of decision theory in particular, documented cases. The authors also appraise the validity and usefulness of these procedures of decision synthesis. The book will be of interest to students and teachers of the theory and practice of decision analysis, and to psychologists, economists and operations researchers in universities and business schools; it will also be invaluable as a handbook to these and to professional managers in business and government, and to management consultants.
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"...presents a well-balanced treatment of the major principles and circumstances of decision making..." William E. Cooper, American Journal of Psychology
Book Description
A synthesis of the theory of decision making and its practical applications is intended for students as well as specialists and as a handbook for those needing to apply decision analysis in practice.
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5.0 out of 5 stars
A classic written by two masters,
By Bocephalus "Old War Horse" (Northern Virginia USA) - See all my reviews
This review is from: Decision Synthesis: The Principles and Practice of Decision Analysis (Paperback)
Recently assigned a task to develop a value model for a large government agency, I needed a one-stop book to refresh my decision analysis techniques. I am acquainted with Buede's book, "The Engineering Design of Systems" so I went to it. "Decision Synthesis" was cited as a reference. While "Decision Synthesis" was written in 1987, it is still very current and incredibly useful. It has helped me avoid making stupid mistakes and suggest useful approaches that have helped me satisfy my customer's needs.
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Inside This Book
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First Sentence:
This is a book about decision-making - about how people do make decisions, and about how they make improve their decision-making. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
policy region analysis, value function theory, decision synthesis, additive value function, analytic tactics, applying decision theory, probability wheel, trajectory pairs, cottage luxury, eleven attributes, lottery questions, deterministic phase, decision analysts, social judgment theory, classical decision theory, emission control strategies, preference independence, holistic judgments, influence diagrams, decision analysis, iterative analysis, elicitation process, trauma severity, ocean access, nuclear safeguards Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Practice Table, Van Gundy, Report Card, United States, Coast Guard, Department of Defense, Practice Figure, Rank Utility, Books Component, San Francisco New!
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Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
This is a book about decision-making - about how people do make decisions, and about how they make improve their decision-making. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
policy region analysis, value function theory, decision synthesis, additive value function, analytic tactics, applying decision theory, probability wheel, trajectory pairs, cottage luxury, eleven attributes, lottery questions, deterministic phase, decision analysts, social judgment theory, classical decision theory, emission control strategies, preference independence, holistic judgments, influence diagrams, decision analysis, iterative analysis, elicitation process, trauma severity, ocean access, nuclear safeguards Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Practice Table, Van Gundy, Report Card, United States, Coast Guard, Department of Defense, Practice Figure, Rank Utility, Books Component, San Francisco New!
Books on Related Topics | Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Citations (learn more)
This book cites 75
books:
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18
books
cite this book:
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- Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior by T. S. Wallsten in Back Matter (1), Back Matter (2), and Back Matter (3)
- Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty by Howard Raiffa in Back Matter (1), Back Matter (2), and Back Matter (3)
- Rethinking the Process of Operational Research and Systems Analysis (Frontiers of Operational FORS) by Rolfe Tomlinson in Back Matter (1), and Back Matter (2)
- The New Rational Manager by Charles Higgins Kepner on page 164, and Back Matter
- Principles of Economics (Great Minds Series) by Alfred Marshall on page 20, and Back Matter
See all 75 books this book cites
- Risk Assessment for Object Conservation by Jonathan Ashley-Smith on page 49, and Back Matter
- Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis by Millett Granger Morgan on page 72, and page 219
- Aiding Decisions with Multiple Criteria: Essays in Honor of Bernard Roy (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) by Denis Bouyssou on page 456
- Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks by Andrew Gelman in Index
- Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science by Michael Pidd on page 56
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