Curt Stager's new book, based on decades of researching ice and soil cores from around the globe, provides one of the most balanced, well documented, perspicuous accounts of the global effects of the warming trend, that I've ever encountered. Before you pass this research over as liberal agenda, it's worth reading for not only his predictions about the changes we face, but what will be the LONG TERM changes the Earth faces. Of course, that's why the subtitle "The Next 100,000 years of Life on Earth", tho after a careful reading, its really the next half million years he's predicting. It might help to have a little geology under your belt reading this, idealy historical geology or meterology, tho its not essencial. I only say this, because the book is crammed with so much scientific insight and processed data, along with computer simulations about the CO2 levels now and in the past, and where that will leave us globally over the next few millenia. However, Stager writes with a well grounded, non technical language for much of the book. So when he breezes over the celestrial mechanics which governed the LONG TERM warming and cooling cycles earth has experienced in the past, he doesnt even use the term "Precession" to discribe the 23000 year cycle where the pole traces a circle which points at the North Star now. He calls precession "Wobble", since that's what the earth does. Eccentricity, another one of earth's movements, moves the earth's solar orbit from circular to more eliptical, which Stager explains means "egg-like". These celestrial changes in orbit (along with Obliquity) are often what the right wing global warming bashers, blame our current warming trend upon. However, earth and ice cores from around the world, which reveal CO2 levels in the air, prove the ONLY explanation for our current global warming trend is the burning of fossil fuels. Currently, we are faced with TWO SCENARIOS for the earth's next 100,000 years. Either we stop polluting now, and are left with a moderate rise of carbon levels capping at 550-600 ppm (current levels are 387 ppm CO2), then we can expect melting over the next several centuries ending with a rise in sea levels of 23 feet. The author makes clear, that the Greenland ice mass, or the West Antartic ice shelf wont melt in a matter of years or decades, causing seaside megametropolises to be flooded like a tsunami hit them. In an attempt to appear non partisan, or simply acting darkly sarcastic, Stager claims that the effects of a full blown greenhouse effect will spare our future descendants the horrors of another ice age in 50,000 years. Also, he tries to seem like a non-alarmist by reminding us that, after the effects of all the burnt fossil fuels have been reabsorbed into the earth, via acidification of the oceans, or binding in vegetation, that the earth will return to its present condistion in anywhere from 100,000 years for the moderate emission levels, to a half million years if the oceans rise 240 feet. In addition, many species of plants and animals shall have gone extinct, most human habitations anywhere NEAR the sea will need to be moved, since building dikes will only help at first. He reiterates often that since present models predict oceans rising only 3 feet each century, there's no need to be alarmed of immediate flooding. Also, he talks about the benefits of farming in the far north, where there is presently tundra. Again, he gleefully overlooks that tundra is mostly glacier scraped bedrock, and lots of stagnant ponds and lakes, whereas we will be losing huge areas of land to desertification thruout the temperate latitudes, since warming and drying occur together.
So much information is covered in the book, I'm at a loss to bring you even the highlights in such a way, that you can appreciate the level of specificity he covers. Stagers belongs to the UNIVERSITY OF MAINE'S CLIMATE CHANGE INSTITUTE, which houses endless numbers of ice and earth cores, and 53 colleages whom he often calls up for more exacting information outside his own field, like the chapter he devotes to the future of the Polar Bear, and the food cycle that sustains that animal, or when he argues that it will take more than lots of fresh water to shut down the gulf stream, since it depends on MOC theory, ie, mostly tides and winds cause the conveyer to move. Another area he examines in great detail, which I've never seen addressed in books on Global warming, is the effects of an increasingly acidic ocean, as the CO2 disolves into the seawater, producing acidity so severe that shellfish, corals, and other carbonate exoskeleton life forms of even microscopic size, will simply have their exoskeletons dissolve in the overly acidic oceans. What that might do to the food chain is unknown, naturally. Forever taking the LONG VIEW, as the title suggests, Stager attempts to predict when sea ice might once again reform over the Artic ocean. (since the Artic ocean will be almost ice free, in the very near future, during the summer.) However, in 2-5000 years, given a moderate increase in CO2 levels, ice might start to reform during the winter. OR, the ice might reform in 50-100,000 years. And, if we face the effects of a large release of CO2 emissions, then ice might not reform on the artic for 500,000 years. That tells me that some of these predictions are based on computer models with too many variables. No computer model can refer to previous data sets with this level of CO2, since in no period of earths history were the CO2 levels this high before.
This research should be studied by anyone who has a deep interest in the way the Anthropecene age is transforming the earth's climate, and ultimately, what we can expect in the future. These are warnings that all humanity would be wise to take seriously. These are facts that should be examined by college classes on global climate change, and by politicians who meet for international symposiums on what is coming to the coasts, and how fast. Most people will appreciate his lack of any alarmist rhetoric, since the ocean levels will rise slowly enough, that Stager believes that in the future, people will simply move further inland, and further north, incrementally and smoothly the way birch trees will move slowly north, til they cover the Canadian tundra as far north as the upper Hudson Bay, and Baffin island. Of course, that's the weak link in his reasoning, from my viewpoint. The fact is, we have NO IDEA what to expect with humanity's reaction to all this, except starvation, wars over water rights, mass migrations, and bizarre, severe weather changing where it's reasonable to live. WHen he talks about the far future in human social terms, I found little science, and much unfounded speculation. However, the far future of earth's return to normal CO2 levels, do appear scientific, since the information is based upon hard scientific facts gathered from ice cores and ancient lake and ocean beds. In addition, I have to remark about the lack of footnoting. Actually, the author often gathered his information from colleages over telephone conversations. Perhaps more graphs, and other hard data from the U of ME. Climate Change Institute might have been helpful. (I found data on their website, that helped me understand some of Stager's explanations, including graphs showing the direct correspondance between CO2 levels in the atmosphere, and the ice mass on land.) What might be the most insightful information in the book is when the EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL PERIOD is examined. At that time, the earth had NO ICE anywhere, and the oceans were at their peak depth. (240 feet deeper than today.) So long before the relatively recent glaciation periods on earth started about 900,000 years ago, the earth was as warm as our carbon based emissions will make it once more, should we not cap our emissions right now. BUT WHY? Orbital radiation changes caused by the slow but constant changes in the celestrial mechanics of earth's relationship to the sun, cant account for this. So much is still unknown. This information, tho accurant, amounts to baby steps in this new science of analysing deep cores of earth and ice, for clues into the previous world climate. This doesnt negate anything, but just warns us that no matter what we might PREDICT for the next 100,000 years as a result of fossil fuel burning, the fact remains that we CANT know too much, cos there are so many variables still in play, including what, if any, limits humanity might impose and ENFORCE on CO2 emissions in the immediate future. A book that leaves you asking hard questions, often has more to say than a book insisting on acceptable answers, that might be based on opinions or wishful thinking by those very companies that have invested literally trillions of dollars in the marketing, and drilling, of oil, no matter how horrible the effects of fracking shale might be, or the spills caused by deep sea drilling.
SO, who should read this book? I would recommend it to people with a more educated bent, and who wish to enquire what the future holds. Policy makers should take this work seriously, as should anyone involved in international politics. Seriously, tho, the language isnt the technical jargon of geological research papers, but rather, the book is definately written to be read by nearly ANYONE who desires clearer worldview about how our changing climate around the world will immediately effect the socio-economics of countries with large seacoasts, or lots of artic land. Realizing that the earth WILL recover in anywhere from 100,000 to a half million years, doesnt OK the present destruction of the planet so our fossil fuel technology can squeeze the last drops of oil out of a world that cant afford to continue burning carbon fuels, or ignore renewable energy. If there is ONE MESSAGE, amongst the huge amount of various effects of long term global warming, I would say its that.....
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