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Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life on Earth Hardcover – March 15, 2011


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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 304 pages
  • Publisher: Thomas Dunne Books; First Edition edition (March 15, 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0312614624
  • ISBN-13: 978-0312614621
  • Product Dimensions: 6.5 x 1.1 x 9.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (48 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #594,849 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Amazon.com Review

Product Description

A bold, far-reaching look at how our actions will decide the planet’s future for millennia to come.

Imagine a planet where North American and Eurasian navies are squaring off over shipping lanes through an acidified, ice-free Arctic. Centuries later, their northern descendants retreat southward as the recovering sea freezes over again. And later still, future nations plan how to avert an approaching Ice Age... by burning what remains of our fossil fuels.

These are just a few of the events that are likely to befall Earth and human civilization in the next 100,000 years. And it will be the choices we make in this century that will affect that future more than those of any previous generation. We are living at the dawn of the Age of Humans; the only question is how long that age will last.       

Few of us have yet asked, “What happens after global warming?” Drawing upon the latest, groundbreaking works of a handful of climate visionaries, Deep Future helps us look beyond 2100 a.d. to the next hundred millennia of life on Earth. 




Amazon Exclusive: A Conversation Between Bill McKibben and Curt Stager

Bill McKibben is the author of Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet.

Bill McKibben: How'd you come to worry about this global warming stuff in the first place?

Curt Stager: When your book, The End of Nature, first came out, I already knew about global warming but wasn't very worried about it yet. I'm a paleoclimatologist, so I was used to thinking about huge climatic changes of the distant past, and I also wasn't convinced by what was then the available evidence that humans are driving most of today's trend. But now so many excellent studies clearly demonstrate our central role in the warming of the last 30-40 years that I've moved on from "is it really happening" mode to "what does it mean" and "what can we do about it?" Another factor was a project that you asked me to do in support of one of your articles several years ago - to study the weather records in our home region in and around northern New York and Vermont. The latest data show that much of this area is actually warming faster than the global average, and ice stays on our lakes two weeks less in an average winter than it did a century ago. Because of all this, I suppose you could say that I'm a "reformed climate skeptic" now.

Bill McKibben: What kind of timescales do we need to be thinking on to really understand what's happening?

Curt Stager: We've got to expand our view of this issue a thousand-fold to really grasp it. According to the latest research, much of the heat-trapping carbon dioxide we release during our lifetimes will linger in the air not just for centuries but for tens of thousands of years, long enough to affect future ice ages.

Curt Stager: Eaarth is one of the most amazing book titles I've ever seen; in a single word it beautifully captures the essence of what you're trying to tell us about our influences on the planet. How did you come by it?

Bill McKibben: Well, I wanted a way to get across the idea that we're already living on an altered planet. Not as altered as it's going to be, but--for people my age, the iconic image of our planet was that first photo back from the Apollo spacecraft. And the world does not look like that any more. A lot less white up top! Somehow we have to figure out how to get the message across that global warming is not a problem for the future, it's a desperate crisis already.

Bill McKibben: Scientists are forever struggling to communicate effectively with the general public. You're a whiz at it, as this book, and your work in places like National Geographic, make clear. What advice would you give your colleagues?

Curt Stager: That's a fine compliment coming from a master wordsmith like yourself, but it's particularly nice to hear in my case because when I first started my scientific career, back in the 1980s, communicating with the public was openly frowned upon. Nowadays I'm glad to see that it's much more widely accepted, even encouraged, and there are many great opportunities for scientists to be trained in such things. I was fortunate enough to attend a public communications workshop sponsored by the National Science Foundation, for example. But don't be fooled, you science types; there's a lot more to writing effectively for the public than you may think. When it's done properly it appears smooth and natural, but that's not because it's easy; it's a sign of skill and effort. Pay this craft the respect it deserves and learn from people who know what they're doing, then go out and really earn your grants by letting us all know how you spent our tax dollars!

Curt Stager: You do a good job of keeping up with the latest developments in climate research even though you're not a professional scientist. Do you have any advice in that regard for non-science types who are trying to wade through the information jungle in search of current, reliable information about climate change?

Bill McKibben: Like any other huge field, you need some guides--picking someone like Jim Hansen who's been right again and again seems like a good strategy. You need to keep abreast of the important science as it develops. And you need to find some journalists who have paid attention for a long time: Bryan Walsh at Time, Andy Revkin at the New York Times, and so forth. But the trick is not to be too caught up in the details, and keep your eye on the main current: the debate about whether we're warming the planet is no longer interesting. What's interesting is what we're going to do about it.

Review

A Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Book of the Year

“Amid all the ranting, confusing, and contradicting books on climate change, at last here's one that does something truly useful: Clearly and engagingly, scientist Curt Stager guides us back into the atmosphere's history, letting us compare it to the present and draw informed ideas about what to expect in the future. It's heartening to know that he expects us to have one.”
--Alan Weisman, author, The World Without Us

Deep Future is a richly informative and deeply persuasive book -- one that will be relevant for generations.”
--Elizabeth Kolbert, author of Field Notes from a Catastrophe

Deep Future is like one of Jared Diamond’s magisterial accounts, except set in the future, not the past.”
--Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature and Eaarth

“A highly entertaining, carefully balanced, and deeply sobering look at our climate future.”
--William F. Ruddiman, author of Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum

“Fascinating and measured - at last someone is taking the long view.”
--Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees

“This intriguing and thought-provoking view of the far future is an essential read for all interested in the full force of climate change. ”
--Paul Andrew Mayewski, Director of the Climate Change Institute, and author of The Ice Chronicles

"A probing exploration of the impact of climate change over geological time. ... Essential reading."
--Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

"A thoughtful, if controversial, approach to an over-heated subject."
--Publishers Weekly

"Deep Future is a clear, concise, and thought provoking work, one that takes a refreshingly frank look at the science behind global warming and, more importantly, what is coming next. In a field where hyperbolic claims and bitter skepticism prevail, the clarity and unflappability of Stager’s account is like a breath of fresh, slightly heated air."
--The Faster Times

"Maintaining a casual style and providing vivid metaphors, he makes his account entertaining and easy for nontechnical readers to understand."
--Science

Customer Reviews

This is one of those books that will stay with you for a while after you have read it.
Lilac Lily
So maybe by reading Stager's "Deep Future" some will come to understand climate change in a different way and more baby steps like those can be taken.
Michael P. Lefand
Dr. Stager has written an easy-to-read book, with many new (to me) important things to give serious thought to.
W. A. S.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 23 people found the following review helpful By ARH TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on March 6, 2011
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
Curt Stager, a paleoecologist (someone who uses the geologic and fossil records to study the ecology past periods of earth's history), has assembled a book well worth reading if you are interested in or concerned about global climate change. Probably the most imporant thing this book adds to the body of scientific literature that addresses issues of climate change is that of "deep time". "Deep time" refers to expansive lengths of time needed to envision both earth's history and its future. These are time frames most people do not deal with or consider on a regular basis, and so have a difficult time comprehending, but with which geologists like Stager use all the time.

I have been studying and teaching about a wide array of environmental issues for nearly 20 years, and this book provided me with a truly new perspective that I never considered before: the deep future of the planet - a climate future that may be predictable (albeit in broad strokes) for the next 100,000 years or so. Most climate predication models extend only through about 2100, not 102,100! Stager uses known, predictable varibles such as the Milankovitch cycles (variations in the shape of earth's orbit and wobble on its axis) together with known greenhouse-earth episodes in earth's history to predict what might happen to the planet in the future if we experience a moderate episode of carbon-loading in the atmosphere of 1000 giga-tons or so versus an extreme episode of loading of 5000 giga-tons of carbon. Both scenarios are possibilities, depending on when we switch from fossil fuel dependence...i.e., we can switch soon (the 1000 Gt version) or after we run out of fossil fuels and then switch (the 5000 Gt version).
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11 of 12 people found the following review helpful By W. T. Hoffman TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on April 21, 2011
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
Curt Stager's new book, based on decades of researching ice and soil cores from around the globe, provides one of the most balanced, well documented, perspicuous accounts of the global effects of the warming trend, that I've ever encountered. Before you pass this research over as liberal agenda, it's worth reading for not only his predictions about the changes we face, but what will be the LONG TERM changes the Earth faces. Of course, that's why the subtitle "The Next 100,000 years of Life on Earth", tho after a careful reading, its really the next half million years he's predicting. It might help to have a little geology under your belt reading this, idealy historical geology or meterology, tho its not essencial. I only say this, because the book is crammed with so much scientific insight and processed data, along with computer simulations about the CO2 levels now and in the past, and where that will leave us globally over the next few millenia. However, Stager writes with a well grounded, non technical language for much of the book. So when he breezes over the celestrial mechanics which governed the LONG TERM warming and cooling cycles earth has experienced in the past, he doesnt even use the term "Precession" to discribe the 23000 year cycle where the pole traces a circle which points at the North Star now. He calls precession "Wobble", since that's what the earth does. Eccentricity, another one of earth's movements, moves the earth's solar orbit from circular to more eliptical, which Stager explains means "egg-like". These celestrial changes in orbit (along with Obliquity) are often what the right wing global warming bashers, blame our current warming trend upon.Read more ›
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14 of 18 people found the following review helpful By Alice Friedemann on November 6, 2011
Format: Hardcover
Overall the tone of this book is don't worry, there's a lot we don't know, and based on what we don't know and how clever we are, we'll be fine. He uses two cases throughout the book for best and worst cases.

We've already released 300 gigatons (1 billion metric tons) of carbon pollution.

Stager's definition of the Best case. We release another 700 gigatons of carbon (total 1,000), reach a peak of 550-600 ppm CO2 between 2100 and 2200 AD, and a 2 to 4 degree C rise in temperature. I think Stager is aware of the runaway greenhouse effect, but it wasn't clear to me whether the best case scenario was capable of causing this by releasing the CO2 embedded in permafrost and the methane hydrates. In which case wouldn't the end result be more than 1,000? many scientists think we've already emitted enough carbon to cause the runaway greenhouse (anything over 350 ppm, and we're at 390 ppm now).

Stager's definition of the Worst case. We burn all the coal, oil, and natural gas, releasing another 4,700 gigatons of carbon (total 5,000), the super greenhouse scenario. That takes CO2 to 2000 ppm around 2300 AD. Temperatures peak as late as 3500 AD to between 5 to 9 degrees Celcius. The last time we had this kind of world was 55 million years ago, which may have been caused by as little as 2,000 gigatons of carbon. And again, if the runaway greenhouse takes effect, will that release another 50, 500, 5,000 gigatons of carbon? Again, this is Stager's worst case, other scientists see the potential for a higher 10-12 degrees, etc.

Stager gives global warming a positive spin throughout the book pointing out that we'll save our descendants from having to go through the next ice age, which Stager portrays as much worse than a hothouse world.
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More About the Author

Curt Stager was born in Lancaster, PA, in 1956, spent most of his youth in Manchester, CT, and attended Bowdoin College and Duke University. Since 1987, he has been a professor of natural sciences at Paul Smith's College in the Adirondack Mountains of upstate New York, where he also enjoys playing banjo and guitar, skiing the backcountry, and co-hosting "Natural Selections," a weekly science program on North Country Public Radio. For more information about Curt, his research, radio show, or his writings, visit http://www.curtstager.com, or his "Save The Carbon" blog at http://www.savethecarbon.blogspot.com.

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Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life on Earth
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