In Defense Of Public Opinion Polling [Hardcover]

Kenneth F Warren (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: June 25, 2001

What do we really know about public opinion polls? Are they as flawed as conventional wisdom implies? How accurate are the polls, really? How can we spot a bad poll? Why do politicians and journalists have a love-hate relationship with polls? How do polls help us interpret history? Why has public opinion polling become so popular in other countries?In the 2000 national elections $100 million was spent on campaign polling alone. A $5 billion industry from Gallup to Zogby, public opinion polling is growing rapidly with the explosion of consumer-oriented market research, political and media polling, and controversial Internet polling. By many measures—from editorial cartoons to bumper stickers—we hate pollsters and their polls. We think of polling as hopelessly flawed, invasive of our privacy, and just plain annoying. At times we even argue that polling is illegal, unconstitutional, and downright un-American. Yet we crave the information polling provides. What do other Americans think about gun control? School vouchers? Airline performance? Or the Yankees’ chances for winning another World Series? Pollsters consult with jurists on the best venue for a controversial criminal trial. They advise car manufacturers on which paint colors to use for a new model. They guide city councils in how to divide public funding across competing priorities.Ken Warren closes this book with an especially candid report card on how 13 major pollsters fared in predicting the November 2000 presidential contest and how pollsters fared in making 136 projections in congressional and gubernatorial races across the United States. Despite the wild swings of the political season most pollsters were remarkably accurate in forecasting the results. Based on extensive interviews with major pollsters and a wide examination of current polling practices and results, In Defense of Public Opinion Polling argues strongly that well conducted scientific polls are not only accurate, but are valuable tools in understanding society and promoting its own best interests.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Perhaps it was one too many snide comments about "stupid polls," or just a growing dismay over Americans' cynical attitude toward public opinion polling, but Ken Warren decided it was time to defend his job. Sure, admits the president of the Warren Poll, it's easy to attack pollsters and polls: there is no such thing as a methodologically perfect poll, and the possible shortcomings and contaminations are endless. On the other hand, polls are remarkably accurate, and Warren has the data to prove it.

His defense can be summed up this way: pollsters measure public opinion better than any competitor and are a valuable tool for recording and interpreting moments in history (like the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal), understanding the present (even Alan Greenspan consults economic surveys before raising interest rates), and planning for the future (local, state, and federal governments regularly poll constituents before implementing big-ticket projects).

Warren explains the elements that make good polls really good and points the finger at bad polls that either "really 'stink'," such as push polls, or are "ill-fated," such as the Nielsen ratings. He also explains why politicians and the media love (and sometimes hate) opinion polls and depend on them for their survival. (In other words, don't believe it when politicians say they don't pay attention to the polls. While President Bush may not jump at every poll-generated statistic like his predecessor, he would be a fool not to pay attention.)

Warren's favorite defense of opinion polling is that it advances democracy because it promotes popular government, and he looks at its growing use in democratic countries and its failure in totalitarian ones. Occasionally, Warren is blinded by his own enthusiasm (since when have historians been able to understand election results only by using polls results, and how many people really use them to "fit in"?),and he is clearly a better pollster than writer. Still, were the readers of this book to be polled on how well it does its job, the majority would give it a thumbs-up. --Lesley Reed

From Publishers Weekly

On the first page of this engaging and informative work, Warren introduces himself 12-step-style: "I am a pollster." He has in fact been the president of the Warren Poll for more than two decades, and his defensive posture is warranted, he explains, because most Americans hate polls and the people who conduct them. Among other sins, polls are accused of being inaccurate, of undervaluing minority opinions, of being undemocratic in their sway over public opinion and public officials, and invasive of our privacy. But Warren argues that the ubiquity of polls today (it is a $5-billion-a-year industry) shows they must be doing something right: they are, he says, providing accurate and authoritative public opinion information. Yes, there are bad polls that are, as he explains, dishonest in intent and flawed in methodology, but most pollsters are highly ethical and obsessed with getting the details right, from drawing truly representative samples and creating well-designed questionnaires to carefully tabulating raw data and providing thorough analyses of the numbers. In the end, polls are hardly undemocratic, says Warren, but, rather, make it difficult for politicians to ignore public opinion; polls are thus a popular voice in what would otherwise be an elitist debate. Proof of their potency is to be found in their increasing use in emerging democracies around the world. Warren keeps wonk jargon to a minimum and illuminates his argument with specific examples, such as the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. Polls showed that the more Republicans pilloried Clinton, the more popular he became, and therefore probably contributed to Clinton's decision to fight on rather than resign. Warren's purpose is to educate the public about polls, and 98.7% (plus or minus 4%) will no doubt agree he has done a convincing job.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 368 pages
• Publisher: Westview Press (June 25, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0813397936
• ISBN-13: 978-0813397931
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,204,178 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, read author blogs, and more.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A cogent, insightful analysis, to understanding elections., October 21, 2004

By 

M. Chlanda "Miguelito" (Saint Louis, MO United States) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: In Defense Of Public Opinion Polling (Paperback)

A former professor of mine, at St. Louis University (in St. Louis Missouri) Dr. Warren goes a long way in explaining and expressing the need for public opinion polls; particularly as they relate to the political process (especially in the U.S.). People and politicians either love them, hate them, or have no opinion (sometimes) about them. Dr. Warren makes a strong case that those politicians who ignore them do so at their own risk. One case he particularly makes well is the public reaction to the Clinton-Lewinsky matter. The history, methods, and use, and of course, misuse, of polls is also explored. While I may not agree with Dr. Warren's assessment that politicians should follow polls, nonetheless, they are important to a candidate's ability to be elected, remain in office, and even how the candidate's legacy is determined. Dr. Warren also shows how polls have been used outside the U.S., e.g., in Britain, to elect Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister; Ehud Barak, in Israel, and others.

Whether one agrees or disagrees with Dr. Warren's analysis of polls in politics, this book is well worth a look, as they relate to the 2004 election (though the book stops at 2000; which is the final chapter, as the polls applied to the disasterous election that gave us the current administration, God Help Us).