Customer Reviews

Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs

5 star:		(2)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

Shilling predicts good - rather than bad deflation (at least for the USA): i.e. surging demand absorbing excess supply because of price falls. It is a US-centric view - weaker on the international side. Deflation addresses an important & neglected subject. The slow start is tolerable because of good, up-to-date graphs and data generally. Happily he is consultant-clear rather than economist-arcane. His analysis of the US economy is compelling & useful for foreign readers. Nonetheless, there are questions: will policymakers (including central bankers) not adjust; e.g. I understand that defense spending has started rising again. Shilling's review of factors such as the internet is useful. The foreign material is poorer - though his Asian chapters are good. Bizarrely for such a serious & scholarly work, there is no index.

Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience `good' rather than `bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.

This book might better be called "Shilling on Deflation" -it rivals the mega best-seller "Bogle on Mutual Funds." You might buy it just for the incredible historical charts and facts which are unavailable elsewhere.

One thing it lacks, however, is a concise argument why we would encounter mild deflation without being on the gold standard - which historically has caused mild deflation for decades in the 1800's and early 20th century. I do not see how the U.S. consumer is going to suddenly turn into a japanese-like saving machine, on Alan Greenspan's watch, unless Greenspan screws up very badly.

Nevertheless, this is the guy who published in 1983, "Is inflation ending? Are you ready?" - ignore him at your own peril! His investment and saving strategies also justify the purchase price of the book.

Loaded with charts to support his thesis, Shilling provides compelling evidence that inflation is dead, at least for the next 5 years. He cites China's need to export to grow, a competitive force unlike anything we have faced before. He also is convincing in his argument that a global economy means downward pressure on prices here and abroad. My suggestion is to read the last chapter first, so that the data takes on even more significance as the reader plows through it. All in all, a good explanation of macro economics from a not too esoteric economist.

I found this easy-to-read book very profound in its analysis of the inflation-disinflation-deflation pattern that we are witnessing today.

The book is filled with charts that highlight the author's message. The last several chapters on investment, business, and personal strategies are priceless.

No weasel words in this book. Lots of forecasts.

John D.

This book will help you make sense out of the headlines you have been seeing everyday in the business section of your paper. It will help you "connect the dots" about megatrends you maybe were aware of, but not taking into account with your investment decisions. I read this back in August 1998, and it is amazing how current events seem to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted in the book. You should not miss the chance to read this.

Dr. Shilling's book is very well written. While it reinforced my suspicions that we are entering a deflationary era, it also provided a necessary historical perspective about "good" and "bad" deflations -- necessary perspective because most people (including me before reading this book) associate the word deflation with the Great Depression. The author's writing style makes the topic accessible to everyone. The book loses one star because of the lack of an index.

Bent on the position that deflation is coming. If Asia is not the stimulus than the blundering Federal Reserve will be. I disagree. Most successful companies are already making plans to address the global overcapacity. Asian countries cannot continue to devalue currencies in a vacuum since devaluations cripple the local populations. The author essentially assumes that the forces of the world will stupidly and blindly force deflation. While many of the world's leaders are far from perfect, the critical leaders fundamentally understand that good economics is good politics. Bad economics might be good politically now (e.g. deficit spending), but ultimately the situation crashes and the politican suffers (i.e. Asia's leaders). In sum, if you want to be pointlessly scared, please read this book. Remember, a messenger's credentials do not make the message correct.

Quick, compelling arguments to change the way you think about the economy and the future. Well written and easy to understand, and fairly light reading for economics. "Must read" for investors, those approaching retirement, etc. Especially important for those with a lot of debt, or thinking about doing a lot of borrowing. Not a 'doomsday' piece, but very thought-provoking as to understanding new ways to win in investing.

This book has changed the way I think about economics and world markets. I approach each day knowing that one of the most important things I can do for myself and my family is to manage our financial asset risk. All good markets come to an end sometime, and when the U.S. government runs surpluses, the signs of an important change could be at hand.

Whether you agree or disagree with the author, the book is insightful, and well-written. Never thought I'd be held spellbound by an economics book, but I certainly was.

Deflation never happened. Maybe it was all the money the Fed pumped into the economy for problems that never happened like the Y2K or Millennium bug. Then we got the housing and real estate bubbleflation followed by a panic and more money pumping. With so much officious meddling how can you forecast anything? I guess we'll just have to keep on flying by the seat of the pants.