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Degrees of Belief: Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment

5 out of 5 stars 3 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0784405987
ISBN-10: 0784405980
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 472 pages
  • Publisher: Amer Society of Civil Engineers (July 1, 2002)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0784405980
  • ISBN-13: 978-0784405987
  • Product Dimensions: 1 x 6.2 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,230,549 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Format: Paperback
The new book,DEGREES OF BELIEF. is much more than the subtitle, Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment, would imply. The author presents a scholarly, sensible treatise that covers both theory and practice and, most importantly, builds a beautiful bridge between them.
The various quotes from lectures and writings of Karl Terzaghi, Ralph Peck and other giants of the engineering profession add much to the book. Moreover, the author's emphasis on the wholeness of theory and practice and that regardless of the paradigm, judgment is imperative,make this book so outstanding.
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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
An excellent treatment of a number of the schools of thought underlying the study of probability, which, along with decision making, lies at the heart of risk management. As with Koen's "Discussion of the Method", Vick's candid admission that the fundamental assumptions of engineering are built largely on approximations, is downright sobering. Again like Koen, Vick reaches far beyond his own profession of engineering to find answers to the tough questions and similarly, he treats his subject with a healthy dose of humour and human interest.
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In over 25 years as a practicing engineer, this is one of the best books I've ever read. It believe that it should be required reading for civil engineers prior to attaining a license to practice. Vick deals with the realities of the practice through candid discussions of uncertainty, judgment, expertise, overconfidence, and accepted methods. The material is centered around geotechnical engineering, but is equally and directly applicable to other areas such as hydrologic/hydraulic engineering, traffic engineering, ocean engineering, or any other sub-discipline that deals with natural systems directly. Make no mistake, it is a difficult read, but it is worth the time and effort.
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Degrees of Belief: Subjective Probability and Engineering Judgment
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