Customer Reviews

Destination Z: The History of the Future

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This is an absobing and informative book that applies scenario planning to peer ahead viewing the consumer and the supplier as the primary engines of change. The author paints a provocative picture of five possible scenarios: (1) the consumer is in control and suppliers are competing for their business; (2) suppliers have formed Keiretsu-style network alliances; (3) large, vertically integrated companies competing for local market share; (4) specialized suppliers, excelling in their core competencies concerning process rather than product, while outsourcing all else; and (5), a scenario that assumes political and social disaster plunging the world economy into havoc.

To deal with the uncertainties of tomorrow, Baldock recommends companies develop robust strategies, keep in a constant state vigilant awareness for early warning signs, and create future-oriented, wide-angle thinking management teams. If you are trying look ahead 5+ years, this book is a superb springboard.

To make "Destination Z" yet more meaningful, you may want to complement it by reading "Learning From the Future," Liam Fahey and Robert M., Randall, editors to provide additional insight into using scenario learning and planning.

Baldock has written an outstanding book that will benefit all who are engaged in strategic planning and be of interest to anyone with a lust for finding out what lies ahead in the world of economics and business. Gerry Stern, Founding Partner, HRconsultant.com and Stern & Associates.

In recent years, businesses have learnt to accept change as a permanent factor in their lives. But in order to survive in the next century, businesses must learn to think far more radically and be willing to accommodate yet more dramatic changes throughout their organisations. The past is no longer a reliable indicator of the future. The face of business today is virtually unrecognisable from that of 20 years ago. Robert Baldock forsees an even greater degree of change in the next five years, reflecting an acceleration in the process.

Innovatively written as if the author's suppositions are already history, the book presents five very different scenarios of the future of business, including a "wild card" which pushes predictions of the future to the boundaries of plausibility. Five very different scenarios-and yet elements of them are bound to transpire. Thinking about these outcomes can help managers to thrive in the emerging world of the future. To point you towards your own action plan the final chapter draws together lessons of the five scenarios and harnesses them into reliable strategies which will serve in any eventuality.

If your role is in management you must prepare for the unpredictable. Read this book before the future arrives.

Robert Baldock (1955- ) was, until recently, a global managing partner in Anderson Consulting, the management and technology consultancy, responsible for eCommerce, Customer Relationship Management and Mergers and Acquisitions within the Financial Services Industry. He led a team within Andersen's global financial services practice in developing a set of scenarios for the future of the financial services industry as well as an initiative looking at the future shape of the consumer serving industries. He is the author of The Last Days of the Giants?.

I read Desitnation Z over the summer and found it wanting of real impact and being something different and new. The information is largely rehasing scenarios developed by other authors. Sorry to be so harsh, but with all of the other futurism floating around, this is not among the best of the bunch.

This book starts with a good concept about what the future may hold. Written as if it were already 2008, the author invents futures of numerous businesses and warning signs of coming scenarios.

First and foremost, this is a British book. Few attempts were made to change British expressions into ones people from the US could understand. Get used to reading about "petrol" and "washing powder" instead of gas and laundry detergent. Most businesses followed were from the UK.

I noticed two glaring omissions:

Yahoo! gets scant mention and no entry in the index. References are only made to search engines in general. Mr. Baldock appears to think all companies may do their own marketing and selling. Big companies will eventually crush the upstart dot.com's in one scenario.

None of his scenarios cover the role of philanthropy. The most unusual scenario has wealthy people living in walled communities afraid to leave them because of the violent poor outside. Will the United Way, Packard Foundation, etc. vanish?

An old-style academic book, no links to the internet are given outside of the book publisher. No interactivity with the author is available.

The book was designed to make one think about the future and look for warning signs of possible scenarios. As such it can be a worthwhile read.

I am transtlating this book to introduce Korean readers now. I think that his vision of future is very good and helpful to everybody, especially businessmen living in a jungle of competition. But as a translator, I met some difficulty in understanding the author and felt burden on translating it very exactly. First, many companies come out in this book, but many of them are unfamiliar with me. I hoped that if he explained these companies in footnotes, it was very helpful for people(including me) to understand the contents. Second, sometimes it was very hard to understand author's thinkings. I am sure that his sentences were very different from those of American English. I spent much time on finding meanings of his expressions. In despite of this difficulties, Introducing this book to Korean readers is very worthwhile thing. I have always be happy to translate this book. I felt like writing the history of the future by myself in Korean. In 2 months later, we Koreans will find the newest and best ways to reach the 21th century more successfully through this book.