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Deterministic And Stochastic Models Of Aids Epidemics And Hiv Infections With Intervention

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A grimly serious book. The chapters describe many models of how the AIDS/HIV pandemic might continue spreading. There are attempts to include numerous factors that contribute or act against the spread.

A major topic investigated in several chapters is the evolution of AIDS resistance to the protease inhibitors. The inhibitors have now been given in treatments for almost 10 years and have proved remarkably effective in fighting HIV to a standstill, though crucially not in eliminating it. A key problem, that surely keeps many researchers awake at night, is what might cause HIV to successfully mutate. One chapter, by Heffernan and Wahl, studies treatment interruptions as a probable cause. The interruptions might happen because some recipients cannot keep affording the treatments. Or they might, inadvertantly or otherwise, neglect treatments. (Zonked out junkies, anyone?)

Other chapters delve into such issues as better estimates of spreading. A consistent problem is that it is always possible to introduce a more complex model, with more parameters to estimate. What is vital is trying to discern a model with the minimum complexity, that still is adequate to describe a continuing epidemic. From the book, it is unclear which if any of the presented models this might be.