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The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower [Paperback]

Robert Baer (Author)
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (65 customer reviews)

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Book Description

August 18, 2009
Over the past thirty years, while the United States has turned either a blind or dismissive eye, Iran has emerged as a nation every bit as capable of altering America’s destiny as traditional superpowers Russia and China. Indeed, one of this book’s central arguments is that, in some ways, Iran’s grip on America’s future is even tighter.

As ex–CIA operative Robert Baer masterfully shows, Iran has maneuvered itself into the elite superpower ranks by exploiting Americans’ false perceptions of what Iran is—by letting us believe it is a country run by scowling religious fanatics, too preoccupied with theocratic jostling and terrorist agendas to strengthen its political and economic foundations.

The reality is much more frightening—and yet contained in the potential catastrophe is an implicit political response that, if we’re bold enough to adopt it, could avert disaster.

Baer’s on-the-ground sleuthing and interviews with key Middle East players—everyone from an Iranian ayatollah to the king of Bahrain to the head of Israel’s internal security—paint a picture of the centuries-old Shia nation that is starkly the opposite of the one normally drawn. For example, Iran’s hate-spouting President Ahmadinejad is by no means the true spokesman for Iranian foreign policy, nor is Iran making it the highest priority to become a nuclear player.

Even so, Baer has discovered that Iran is currently engaged in a soft takeover of the Middle East, that the proxy method of war-making and co-option it perfected with Hezbollah in Lebanon is being exported throughout the region, that Iran now controls a significant portion of Iraq, that it is extending its influence over Jordan and Egypt, that the Arab Emirates and other Gulf States are being pulled into its sphere, and that it will shortly have a firm hold on the world’s oil spigot.

By mixing anecdotes with information gleaned from clandestine sources, Baer superbly demonstrates that Iran, far from being a wild-eyed rogue state, is a rational actor—one skilled in the game of nations and so effective at thwarting perceived Western colonialism that even rival Sunnis relish fighting under its banner.

For U.S. policy makers, the choices have narrowed: either cede the world’s most important energy corridors to a nation that can match us militarily with its asymmetric capabilities (which include the use of suicide bombers)—or deal with the devil we know. We might just find that in allying with Iran, we’ll have increased not just our own security but that of all Middle East nations.The alternative—to continue goading Iran into establishing hegemony over the Muslim world—is too chilling to contemplate.


From the Hardcover edition.

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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Former CIA operative Baer (See No Evil) challenges the conventional wisdom regarding Iran in this timely and provocative analysis, arguing that Iran has already half-won its undeclared 30-year war with the United States and is rapidly becoming a superpower. In Baer's analysis, Iran has succeeded by using carefully vetted proxies such as Hezbollah and by appealing across the Muslim sectarian divide to Sunni Arabs, and is well on its way to establishing an empire in the Persian Gulf. Baer claims that since Iran's dominance in the Middle East is a fait accompli, the United States has no viable choice but to ask for a truce and enter into negotiations prepared to drop sanctions against Iran and accept a partition of Iraq, which is already, and irretrievably, lost. Baer's assumptions are often questionable—most tellingly that Iran is now trustworthy—and his conclusions premature: he states unequivocally, for example, that the Iranians have annexed the entire south [of Iraq]. But his brief adds an important perspective to a crucial international debate.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Review

“A masterpiece…Baer's brilliant analysis of Sunni versus Shia, Arab versus Iranian, and Christian versus Muslim is shocking, revealing, and provocative.  Baer lifts the veil of Western media hype and challenges the simplistic solutions offered by ‘experts’ whose vision is blurred by the past. Through his knowledge, long-term experience, and ability to assess the changing landscape of this vital region, he not only shatters the foundations of conventional thinking, but also offers a practicable blueprint for turning things around.”
—John Perkins, author of the New York Times bestseller Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

“The most important and original book on the Middle East to appear in many years. Baer’s subject is the growing power of Iran; his goal is ending the pattern of American failure; his message is that we’ve been backing the wrong horse. This is a book McCain and Obama should ponder.”
—Thomas Powers, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Man Who Kept the Secrets and Intelligence Wars

"The Devil We Know, Bob Baer has once again peered into the future and has brought back uncomfortable truths that won't satisfy any partisan. But his book does force us to do something that, unfortunately, doesn't come naturally to the chattering classes. Think.”
—James Risen, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration

“An important text studded with keen insights into a nation about which America remains dangerously misinformed.”
Kirkus Reviews

“Timely and provocative...adds an important perspective to a crucial international debate.”
Publishers Weekly

“Challenges conventional wisdom…[a] timely and provocative analysis.”
Denver Post


From the Hardcover edition.

Product Details

  • Paperback: 288 pages
  • Publisher: Broadway (August 18, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0307408671
  • ISBN-13: 978-0307408679
  • Product Dimensions: 5.2 x 0.6 x 8 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 9.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (65 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #112,385 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

ROBERT BAER is the author of two New York Times bestsellers: Sleeping with the Devil, about the Saudi royal family and its relationship with the United States; and See No Evil, which recounts Baer's years as a top CIA operative. See No Evil was the basis for the acclaimed film Syriana, which earned George Clooney an Oscar for his portrayal of Baer. Baer writes regularly for Time.com and has contributed to Vanity Fair, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post. He is considered one of the world's foremost authorities on the Middle East.

 

Customer Reviews

65 Reviews
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Average Customer Review
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

141 of 155 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars RUSH to Read this Book before November, October 2, 2008
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Robert Baer's take on the Middle East is deeply supportive, without electioneering, of the position of Barack Obama on negotiations with Iran and with other 'suspect' regimes. "If you can't talk with them, you can't know them," is the implicit wisdom of this position, to which I would add the necessary corollary that "if you don't know them, you can't talk with them effectively." Baer has the experience and credentials to assert that he knows Iran rather well, with twenty-some years in the CIA, mostly in the Middle East.

Baer's central arguments depend on our willingness to consider Iran a rational, self-interested country with a structure of leadership beyond the theatrical postures that Americans take for hopeless enmity. Yes, Iran is different, and indifferent to America's self-image of exceptionalism. Yes, Iran does aspire to a leadership in the Middle East, and even to a moderate super-power role in the world at large, which the USA has been and will still be very loath to recognize. However, according to Baer, Iran's aspirations will best be realized by establishing a mode of co-existence and shared influence with the USA, and important people among the Iranians well understand that need.

Once again, according to Baer, the Shia-Sunni antagonism is far more serious and determinant of conflict than Americans yet comprehend, even after the strife in Iraq. Thus the natural rival - even enemy - of Iran is not Israel but rather Saudi Arabia, and one of the reasons for the anger of Iranians toward the USA is the bed-fellow ties the USA has maintained with the Saudi autocracy. As for Israel, Iran is well aware that it can't achieve any of its true goals by provoking Israel to a full-scale attack, and there are major segments of the Iranian leadership who suppose that a negotiated settlement with Israel and the Palestinians would be in reach of a diplomatic entente between the USA and Iran. According to Baer, Iranian influence has already risen to new heights, in Lebanon especially, through Hezbollah, especially since the USA did them the favor of reducing their front-line enemies - Iraq and the Taliban - to chaos.

As for a US invasion of Iran, Baer maintains that it would be an unprecedented, disastrous mistake. Iran, he says, could and would "ignite" the Gulf, utterly disrupt oil production and shipping, and very likely take the opportunity to strike against the Saudis. The effect on the world economy would be catastrophic. Thus the whole Middle East is painfully locked in a "Texas draw", a stand-off of destruction that doesn't even offer a potential victor any kind of proportionate reward.

This book is sure to be controversial in the USA. I can already imagine the barrage of angry comments I'll receive on this review merely for suggesting that the book is thoughtful and deserves to be read. There's a flaw in the title, however, that I need to point out. If "the Devil we know" is Iran, then part of the problem is that we don't know this Devil well enough. Ignorance and preconception of the history and reality of the Middle East have been responsible for huge errors in American activity there - from the odious coup against Mossadegh, to Carter's policies of maximum blundering, to Reagan's impeachable secret dealings, and on through successive unsuccessful administrations from both parties.
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52 of 57 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars An Absolutely Alternative Look at the Realty of Us vs. Iran, October 6, 2008
By 
Anthony Ian "anthony_ian" (Chicago, IL United States) - See all my reviews
Once again, Baer comes flying in with the sorry-but-it's-true reality of the Middle East. I've read all his books and couldn't wait to read this one. The first two dealt with exposing what Saudi Arabia is really up to and their involvement in terror and, most importantly, why it is beyond insane to call them an "ally."

Now he takes on Iran and details in very convincing manner (having dealt with Iran for decades) how Iran is much more powerful in the region than we currently believe, and how all this talk of them being the third prong of the "Axis of Evil" that is going to nuke Israel is completely 9/10 thinking.

He correctly summarizes how they, via Hezbollah, were able to beat Israel in the 2006 war and galvanized public support for them. He also points out, which is pretty obvious, how they have immense sway over Iraq and its Shia majority.

What's eye-opening is his pointing out that Hezbollah/Iran hasn't launched a terror campaign (meaning, bombings, kidnappings) since the 80s because there's a "pragmatism" to their thinking and they realized this kind of thing wasn't helping their cause. And what is that cause? To be, and be realized, as the superpower in the region.

NOT to wipe out Israel, not to do anything that the fool Ahmadinejad keeps talking about, not to eventually bring Islam to our doorstep and force it down our throats.

The epiphany of the book is that Baer positions Iran not as an enemy to be attacked or feared, but rather a historic opportunity to form an alliance in the region. Time is ticking, he asserts, and do we really want to cast our lot with the zealot Sunni Muslim "takfiris" who have wreaked destruction for decades (including 9/11) and have no other goal except destruction and using the Koran as their Constitution? Because that's who we're partnered with now.

Or, do we form an alliance with a country that doesn't share that ideology at all, and who can provide dividends in settling Iraq and, yes, Israel/Palestine?

He makes a good case. Read and judge for yourself. I can't recommend it enough; too bad our leaders aren't reading it also.

BTW: easy read. Blew through it in three days.
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16 of 17 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Well Worth Considering, December 21, 2008
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Bob Baer's The Devil We Know is well worth the time. He essentially takes the Neo-con premise that Iran is a threat in the region and turns it around. He argues that Iran is a real regional power with a centuries-long cultural history and a far more rational player in the region than near-failed states like Pakistan. Instead of trying to confront Iran, the US, with two very expensive wars they cannot sustain, needs to find a new policy direction in the region in order to more effectively further their national interests. Iran, is not near the problem that many seem to think it is, and this is Baer's essential position.

The complete lack of footnotes in the book is a problem, but one cannot entirely dismiss Baer's arguments because of it. He clearly has substantial knowledge and experience in the region, but he is not infallible.
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