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Disaster Deferred: A New View of Earthquake Hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone [Hardcover]

Seth Stein
4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)

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Book Description

October 15, 2010

In the winter of 1811-12, a series of large earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone-often incorrectly described as the biggest ever to hit the United States-shook the Midwest. Today the federal government ranks the hazard in the Midwest as high as California's and is pressuring communities to undertake expensive preparations for disaster.

Coinciding with the two-hundredth anniversary of the New Madrid earthquakes, Disaster Deferred revisits these earthquakes, the legends that have grown around them, and the predictions of doom that have followed in their wake. Seth Stein clearly explains the techniques seismologists use to study Midwestern quakes and estimate their danger. Detailing how limited scientific knowledge, bureaucratic instincts, and the media's love of a good story have exaggerated these hazards, Stein calmly debunks the hype surrounding such predictions and encourages the formulation of more sensible, less costly policy. Powered by insider knowledge and an engaging style, Disaster Deferred shows how new geological ideas and data, including those from the Global Positioning System, are painting a very different-and much less frightening-picture of the future.


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Disaster Deferred: A New View of Earthquake Hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone + Tsunamis: Giant Waves from the Sea (Hazardous Earth)
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"Seth Stein's book is fun to read and has a compelling story to tell. There is no book quite like it out there." -- Stephen Marshak, University of Illinois

"A must-read for all involved in such issues." -- Orrin Pilkey, Duke University, author of Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

"A masterpiece of how to present often complicated and complex scientific findings to the general public in a way easy to understand."
Pure and Applied Geophysics

"The book is, I think, rather accessible to readers who have a minimum of knowledge of geology. There's very little math (and it's well explained), and I think anyone with the slightest of interests in the area should pick this book up.  Parts of it are actually funny."  - Terry  Pinder, Daily Kos, Dec 16, 2011

"This fascinating book is straightforward yet exciting: a high-school freshman can read it but a scientist of any discipline will be roused by it. The book is part story, part science, and part how scientists think. I recommend this book to anyone interested in science."
-  Engineering & Science

'Sacred cows make the best hamburger,' as the saying goes. In Disaster Deferred, Seth Stein takes on one of the sacred cows of geology-the story of the Midwest's New Madrid fault-and argues that estimates of earthquake risk along the fault have been greatly exaggerated. Along the way, Stein gives readers a taste of what it is like to do science. He tells his tale with care, passion, and the kind of humor that seems just right for a geologist—crusty and bluff.

(Jonathan Weiner, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Beak of the Finch: A Story of Evolution in Our Time )

Seth Stein's book is fun to read and has a compelling story to tell. There is no book quite like it out there.

(Stephen Marshak, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign )

Seth Stein thoughtfully recognizes the painful decisions that various politicians and emergency managers must make, and he provides realistic descriptions of various types of bureaucracies and scientific specialties, without rancor. A must-read for all involved in such issues.

(Orrin Pilkey, Duke University, author of Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future )

A great book about real science and policy issues that is a lot of fun to read. Seth Stein has done a great job of telling the story of the New Madrid Seismic Zone and its near-mythic status within the science community, without rancor and without being overly critical of the parties to this fascinating story. Well done all around.

(Timothy H. Dixon, University of Miami )

Stein has done a masterful job of explaining the historical events of New Madrid in 1811 and 1812 and the science behind the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) as it is analyzed today. He effectively challenges the claims and mystique about the NMSZ. This is a much needed, honest, and frank book about earthquakes and seismic policy. It tells the inside story about science, the people in this science, the history of seismology, science in government, and public policy and does so with humor, personal anecdotes, and good examples. An excellent reference book and very readable. As a geologist from a state that borders the NMSZ, I would recommend this book to anyone in government or public policy who deals with these issues.

(James C. Cobb, director and state geologist, Kentucky Geological Survey, University of Kentucky )

A lot of books are written about disasters and potential disasters. Seth Stein's new book Disaster Deferred, is a different kind of book, which uses new scientific results to demonstrate that the dangers of a large earthquake in the Midwest are greatly overestimated. Seth writes in a highly entertaining style, and I frequently found myself laughing out loud. However, the facts are deadly serious and based on the latest results in earthquake science. I strongly recommend this book to anyone interested in earthquakes and their potential impact on society in North America.

(Douglas Wiens Washington University in St. Louis )

Engaging, feisty in places, humorous and philosophical, highly educational, and loaded with common sense -- an exceptional read.... An essential book for policy makers, economists, and notably educators.

(Choice 3/1/11)

Review

'Sacred cows make the best hamburger,' as the saying goes. In Disaster Deferred, Seth Stein takes on one of the sacred cows of geology-the story of the Midwest's New Madrid fault-and argues that estimates of earthquake risk along the fault have been greatly exaggerated. Along the way, Stein gives readers a taste of what it is like to do science. He tells his tale with care, passion, and the kind of humor that seems just right for a geologist—crusty and bluff.

(Jonathan Weiner, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Beak of the Finch: A Story of Evolution in Our Time )

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 296 pages
  • Publisher: Columbia University Press (October 15, 2010)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0231151381
  • ISBN-13: 978-0231151382
  • Product Dimensions: 6 x 1.1 x 9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #241,265 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Seth Stein is Deering Professor of Geology at Northwestern University. He was awarded the Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, and Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union. He has been elected a member of the Academy of Europe and a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and Geological Society of America. His research interests are in plate tectonics, earthquake seismology, earthquake hazards, and space geodesy. He was an organizer of EarthScope, a national initiative to advance knowledge of the structure and evolution of North America, Director of the consortium of universities using GPS for earth science, and Visiting Senior Scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5 stars
(12)
4.8 out of 5 stars
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
6 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Disaster Deferred November 21, 2010
Format:Hardcover
Professor Seth Stein lays out the issues with such clarity that the issues become strikingly simple. The consequences of earthquake risks and hazards are logically reviewed without sensationalism. The simple step by step analysis typifies the best approach evaluating risks of any natural hazard a community might experience. Disaster Deferred should be read by all policy makers.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Science that is surprisingly fun to read November 1, 2010
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
It was such a treat to read this book. Unlike so many science books, Seth Stein does not seem to be writing to show you how smart he is or to impress other scientists. He is more like that really great professor you had, the one who wanted to make sure you understood the point. He uses descriptions to which a (very) non-scientist can relate. The question is straightforward- how worried should we (or the people living in Missouri) be about living around the New Madrid fault? The book explains all aspects of the issue, along with the science, psychology and politics that come into play. The interaction between politics, science and the press was the most surprising element to me.

You can (I did) skip almost all of the diagrams and charts and still learn a lot about a topic that I have never seen covered this way. Stein has a great lighthearted way of writing, making it a book you will enjoy reading, rather than one you have to plow through.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars my experience of the book at Minnesota March 28, 2012
Format:Hardcover
We were one of the first institutions to use Seth's book at Minnesota in our tsunami course for freshmen. This book taught these young students
the basics of earthquakes and science politics in an impressive way. I recommend this book to introductory college students with little
training in science. After going through this book they will have learned a lot more than taking a standard earth science course, plus more.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Review of Disaster Deferred
In Disaster Deferred, Seth Stein provides a comprehensive look at the history, science, policy, and risk perception of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the American Midwest. Read more
Published 9 months ago by J. Kostelnick
5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent read
Another eloquent work by Stein, thought provoking, progress provoking, and well worth recommending to students. Read more
Published 14 months ago by Gillian R. Foulger
3.0 out of 5 stars Important but Dissapointing
This book is another valiant attempt by an academic to connect with the general public concerning the science of earthquake seismology. The attempt is only partially successful. Read more
Published 17 months ago by C. A. SMITH
5.0 out of 5 stars New science for a new generation
Stein's book is much more than a case-based exploration of the history, science, and politics of earthquake hazards in the Midwestern United States. Read more
Published 18 months ago by A Awad
5.0 out of 5 stars Disaster unlikely
An excellent expose of the ill-conceived decision by the USGS to increase the estimate of earthquake hazards in the midwest. Read more
Published on February 21, 2011 by K. Smith
4.0 out of 5 stars Fun, informed, but not the last word on midwest hazard
I'll say up front that this book is very readable, packed with sophisticated ideas laid out in easy-to-read prose, and on an important topic. Read more
Published on January 22, 2011 by John E. Vidale
5.0 out of 5 stars Disaster Deferred
While the subject of this book is Earthquakes, it is really about wisdom. The wisdom to make thoughtful, fact-based decisions. Read more
Published on December 19, 2010 by Ann
5.0 out of 5 stars Disaster Deferred
I'm a geology professor who teaches about earthquakes, and I was really impressed by this book. It does a great job explaining earthquake science using the example of the great... Read more
Published on November 29, 2010 by Michelle
5.0 out of 5 stars Earth Science is (Also) About the People Who Live on Earth
Seth Stein's Disaster Deferred, now a leading candidate for a Pulitzer Prize, is the latest in a wonderful new genre of books, where deep science is joined to a highly personal,... Read more
Published on November 11, 2010 by Shlomo Maital
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