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Divining Victory: Airpower in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War Paperback – 2007


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Editorial Reviews

In the summer of 2006, Israel fought an intense 34-day war with Hezbollah, the first sustained modern air campaign conducted by a country other than the United States. As soon as the fighting was under way, many were declaring airpower oversold and inadequate. Commentators clamored for more-decisive ground action, asserting that only ground forces could defeat Hezbollah rocket fire, that the ground alternative would produce a "cleaner" and less tangled outcome, bring about different political realities, reduce civilian casualties and damage, and make greater gains in the battle for hearts and minds. When the Israeli government itself expressed its frustration with airpower and escalated ground fighting in the second week of the campaign, airpower critics felt vindicated. The antiairpower view could not help but further echo with all of the stark images of Beirut, the cavalcade of statistics of civilian deaths and destruction, and the departure of the chief of staff of the IDF just 6 months after the initial Hezbollah incursion across the Israeli border. What is more, despite all of the claimed Israeli military accomplishments, Hezbollah was declared as strong as ever. The war has thus been labeled a failure by many, and many of the war's ills are blamed on airpower. It is precisely because the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war was not fought by the United States, because it was an intense and technologically complex irregular conflict fought between a nation-state and a terrorist organization, and because it involved difficult questions of civilian protection and modern information warfare that the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. military should examine it closely. This study is weakened by the fact that Israel was extremely sparse in divulging details of either its air campaign or its ground activity. Hezbollah was even more secretive. The author was therefore consigned to the empirical task of divining Israeli and Hezbollah intent through examining destruction on the ground.

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More About the Author

William Arkin is an analyst, author and journalist who has been working on the subject of national security for over 35 years. His unique career spans an early assignment in Army intelligence in Cold War Berlin to being a best-selling author today. He has worked as a military advisor to the most influential non-governmental human rights and environmental organizations, equally at ease heading Greenpeace International's response to the first Gulf War or teaching at the U.S. Air Force's premier strategy school. He is weirdly proud to say that he spent the night in Saddam General Hospital after being injured by an unexploded cluster bomb in Iraq and that some of his fondest memories were picking through the rubble of Slobodan Milosevic's Belgrade villa and Mullah Omar's compound in Afghanistan. He is probably the only person alive who can say that he has written for both The Nation magazine and Marine Corps Gazette. He has authored or coauthored more than a dozen books and been both a columnist and reporter with The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times. He has lived in Vermont since 1993, mostly because he detests Washington but also because if you don't live in a place like Vermont, you don't get it.

Arkin is co-author, most recently, of Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State (Little Brown), a New York Times and Washington Post best-selling non-fiction book based up a four-part series Arkin and his writing partner Dana Priest wrote in 2010. The book and series are the results of a three-year investigation into the shadows of the enormous system of military, intelligence and corporate interests created in the decade after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The series was accompanied by The Washington Post's largest ever online presentation, earned the authors the George Polk Award for National Reporting, the Sigma Delta Chi Society of Professional Journalists award for Public Service, was a Goldsmith finalist for Investigative Reporting and Pulitzer award nominee, as well as recipient of a half dozen other major journalism awards.

Over the years, Arkin's research and journalism has brought his work to the front pages on dozens of occasions and he has appeared on television and radio countless times. He has appeared multiple times on CBS' 60 Minutes, on Meet the Press, and other programs as an independent analyst. As a long-time military analyst for NBC News, one of the few regular on-air analysts who was not a retired general or admiral, he brought both a journalistic and "civilian" perspective to contemporary military affairs.

Arkin began his string of investigative successes in the early 1980's with his ground-breaking research on the nuclear era, including his best-selling Nuclear Battlefields (Ballinger/Harper & Row) which was a news sensation from the front pages of The New York Times to media in Italy, Germany, and Japan, and even earned Arkin a mention in a monologue on the Johnny Carson show. The Reagan Administration went as far as to seek to put Arkin in jail for revealing the locations of American (and Soviet) nuclear weapons around the world; those were the days.

Arkin's then worked on the multi-volume Nuclear Weapons Databook series for the Natural Resources Defense Council, a set of references which the Reagan Administration also sought to prevent from publication. His subsequent revelation of "mini-nuke" research efforts by the Pentagon in 1992 led to a 1994 Congressional ban and ultimately a pledge by the U.S. government not to develop new nuclear weapons. His discovery of Top secret U.S. plans to secretly move nuclear weapons to a number of overseas locations shattered governments from Bermuda to Iceland to the Philippines. Foreign Affairs, the bible of the foreign policy establishment, commented about Arkin in 1997: "The author is well known (and in some government quarters, cordially detested) as an indefatigable researcher in military affairs, whose cunning and persistence have uncovered many secrets ..."

Working for the activist organization Greenpeace in its anti-nuclear hey-day, Arkin conceived a worldwide "Nuclear Free Seas" campaign, which combined research and action that proved so successful at dogging nuclear armed ships and submarines visiting foreign ports that the headache convinced the first Bush administration to remove nuclear weapons altogether from naval vessels.

Arkin then led Greenpeace International's research and action effort on the first Gulf War, being the first American military analyst to visit post-war Iraq in 1991, and the first to write about civilian casualties and the cascading effects of the bombing of electrical power. Gen. Charles A. ("Chuck") Horner, the commander of air forces during Desert Storm, said in a ten year anniversary interview in U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings that the briefing Arkin gave him on the war and its civilian effects in Iraq was the best he'd ever received.

After the Gulf War, Arkin shifted his attention to the new era of conventional warfare. His groundbreaking research on the effects of the use cluster bombs in Iraq and Serbia formed the foundation for the international treaty that later banned their use. Arkin conducted the single most methodical assessment of the causes of civilian casualties after the Kosovo war (1999), a report done for Human Rights Watch that was accepted as authoritative by both NATO and the United States government. Arkin has also visited war zones in the former Yugoslavia, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Israel on behalf of governments, the United Nations and independent inquiries.

Arkin's pioneering methods and meticulous work on the effects of conflict led also to a close collaboration with the United States Air Force, where he became a consultant. He was affiliated with the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies of the United States Air Force from 1992 to 2008 as lecturer and adjunct professor, and conceived and led the SAASS "Airpower Analyst" project to provide better tools for professional on-the-ground study. In 2007, he was National Security and Human Rights Fellow in residence at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University where he worked on a study "Why Civilians Die." He has also been a consultant to the Air Force Research Institute working on the history and impact of airpower.

All during his period, Arkin found room for independent journalism and writing. His New York Times op-ed in 1994 revealing the development of blinding laser programs led to a U.S. decision to agree to an international ban on such weapons. After 9/11, he was the first to write about the Bush administration's preemptive nuclear war concepts, provoking front page coverage in Pakistan and throughout the Islamic world. Before the 2003 Iraq war, he revealed the details of prospective war planning, provoking one of the largest leak investigations in the history of the Defense Department. Arkin revealed the fundamentalist religious activities of Gen. William "Jerry" Boykin, then the architect of the global war on terrorism. As a columnist for the Times and The Washington Post online, Arkin reported on the growth of secret government and the darker sides of the national security enterprise.

Arkin's 2005 book Code Names: Deciphering U.S. Military Plans, Programs and Operations in the 9/11 World (Steerforth), the product of years of research, was featured on the front page of The New York Times and in an Emmy-nominated History Channel documentary. His 2006 revelations of renewed domestic intelligence collection by the Pentagon provoked not only a change in policy to end the so-called "Talon" suspicious activity reporting program but also to the eventual closing of the Counterintelligence Field Activity (CIFA) by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates.

A 2003 Washington Post profile of Arkin commented: "From his home in the mountains of Vermont, William Arkin seems to have mastered one of the great juggling acts of the multimedia age -- persuading news organizations, advocacy groups and the Pentagon, through sheer smarts and a bulldog personality, to take him on his own terms."

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