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The Doomsday Scenario: How America Ends

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"The Doomsday Scenario" by L. Douglas Keeney is actually a briefly declassified copy of the "Emergency Plans Book", a high level consideration of the challenges facing the U.S. in a post nuclear strike world, published in 1958. Along with Keeney's extensive footnoting (on opposite pages to the original text) and an excellent introduction by Stephen I. Schwartz, that is the extent of the book; thus, those reviewers who have argued that this book is dry are correct, although I would argue that their focus is incorrect.

Keeney's primary purpose in "The Doomsday Scenario" was to make available to the public a fascinating snapshot of how the government viewed the prospects for survival in a nuclear war as the Cold War approached its height (although, ironically, 1958 was a time when the U.S. actually had legitimate first-strike capability). As such, his notes are largely contextual (he also includes some excellent pictures of test shots, which effectively convey the destruction being so baldly stated in the document) rather than opinion or conjecture. Hence, if you are looking for a fleshed out portrait of a individual survival after a nuclear war, I would recommend fiction such as "Alas, Babylon", "On the Beach" or "The Last Ship". However, if you are interested in Cold War history in general, "The Doomsday Scenario" offers a superb primary reference, and nicely frames the nuclear strategy of the following thirty years.

As for the text itself, the document covers quite thoroughly (albeit at a high level) all of the military and societal implications of a nuclear war. Among the items considered are casualties, accessibility to medical facilities, economic consequences, food production, transportation and communication. Surprisingly, the government is rather bleak in its assessment and takes a worst case view in most instances. That's not to say that they were wrong to do so, but American's have become accustomed to the positive spin-doctoring of their elected officials, and it was a little odd to see the fact being so plainly stated. Although brief, there are still more points than I could consider in a review, but there were a few aspects of the document that I (and the author) found intriguing. Specifically, although chemical and biological weapons are never considered at length, nuclear weapons are explicitly only part of a suite of WMD's that the U.S. anticipated the Russians using. It is noteworthy that the government anticipated outbreaks of Yellow Fever, smallpox, cholera and even plague within a few weeks of an attack. While the breakdown of medical services would account for some of this, there seems to be a darker consideration underlying this assessment. At the same time, the plan explicitly considers sabotage (e.g. terrorism) playing a significant role in any Soviet strike.

Which brings me to my one complaint about this book: all to often Keeney draws comparisons to 9/11. While 9/11 was certainly awful, it pales in comparison to a nuclear strike, and while some of his comparisons are valid (strain on the communications network being one) all to often he assumes that the U.S. could rebound from 50 million casualties in the same way it did from a few thousand. There's just not much common ground between these two events, and while I believe Keeney is sincere, repeated analogies with no foundation in reality begin to smack of exploitation.

Ultimately, this is a book that will be best appreciated by those interested in the Cold War as a whole. As I mentioned early, this work is best utilized when it provides context and insight for other aspects of the struggle between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. While dry, the original document is fascinating in and of itself, and in spite of my complaint above, Keeney generally provides valuable insight into what the document is really saying.

Jake Mohlman

"Doomsday Scenario" isn't a great work of historical writing, however, it is an explanation of a most important government document. It is the "official" prediction of what might have occurred if the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in full-scale thermonuclear war. The actual document, "The Revision of Emergency Plans Book, which remained secret for over forty years, no doubt, guided the policy making of presidents from Eisenhower to Reagan so it should be read.

If it wasn't for the commentary by the authors, it would be extremely turgid with all of its passive sentences. But this is how the military writes its scenarios. I was fascinated how the military from the extensive above-ground atomic tests found out how nearly impossible it was to decontaminate military installations and naval vessels. Other observations seem to indicate that the government had no feasible way of recovering from World War III.

The book, slim as it is, does show in pictures the effects of nuclear bombs on civilians and civilian structures. The authors do point out that nuclear bombs aren't supernaturally fatal and that they have recognized limitations. The authors also point out similarities to World War III and the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. But the postulated thermonuclear war can't really be compared to what happened on September 11, 2001. The potential loss of one in five Americans really would be a disaster that could only visit this nation once.

"Doomsday Scenario" is a important piece of American History.

One of a kind book, it covers most aspects of a full scale nuclear assualt by the USSR during the cold war. It provides a grim look at the civilian and governmental aspects but is nearly devoid of even references to the military aspects of such an event, this is due mainly to the fact that section B of the document which the book was written on entitied "MILITARY EFFECTS" was not declassified. The book tells in dry but grity detail the aftermath and the effects on the populace as well as providing information about our and the USSR's nuclear capibilites at the time you sure not to find any where else. It also detials what the countries state of industry as well as the state of resources such as fuels and medical supplies, and attempts to give estimations on efforts to rebuild. To top it off the author tried to tie such an event in with 9/11, these rather poor attempts rarely shed any light on what the mental state of america would be after the bombs dropped. Overall this isnt a mass market book but for enthusiasts on the subject its a must read.

I took my time reading this book and even then it only took me three hours to get through it. The author admits that he debated publishing this in a magazine as it was so short. The book is thin and has wide margins. That said, I'm not disappointed -- I have all of the major works on nuclear weapons and this is a valuable addition to the collection. Not a lot of hard data, but rather an interesting government assessment of what will happen after an attack.

This book was hyped in a number of magazines and newspapers that I read. The reviewers seemed to be quite impressed with the book, and I couldn't wait to get my hands on it.

The book was not impressive. What's in here, you've seen before on numerous History Channel shows and read before in many a book. Many will die, many more will be injured, transportation an industry will grind to a halt, and there will be food shortages. Is anyone unaware of this?

There were very few technical details, which is really why I bought the book. If that's what you are looking for, look elsewhere.

I got it today, and have just spent about 15 minutes reading through it. Obviously I need to read it more, but my initial impression is that I'm disappointed in it.

The Foreword by Stephen Schwartz will get you all worked up, as it mentions the High Point Special Fac (Mt. Weather), PEOC, Site-R, CASPER/Greek Island, Nightwatch, etc. in regards to the emergency actions implemented on 11 SEP 01. But then the body of the book is somewhat of a letdown. No details on emergency evac plans & facilities circa 1958, just a lengthy overview of the type of attack predicted by the Soviets, and its general impact on the USA. Anything that does mention C3,I facilities is just offered anecdotally in notes by the author. He barely mentions the PACCS program and NECPA (National Emergency Command
Post Afloat), but no JEEP, JATS, or anything.

The only thing new to me in the 127 page hardback book was the
anecdotal mention (page 119) that the National Gallery of Art in DC would have tried to get priceless paintings to "...a facility on the campus of Randolph-Macon College in Lynchburg, Tennessee."

However, that college is apparently in Lynchburg Viginia, not Tennessee.

If you're a Cold War COG/C3,I 'scholar,' I suppose you'll want to get the book sooner or later for your reference library, but no need to hurry...

An okay book for someone just starting to read about "World War III" or the "Doomsday Scenario," but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone who is familiar with the topic. The book alternates between the official, recently declassified (and re-classified, as the author explains) World War III scenario from 1958, and the authors commentary on each paragraph of the report. While the title leads the reader to believe that this is some recently unearthed, top secret doc with new information, it is nothing that was not available (in different forms) before. In fact, much of this info can be found in the more recent report (ca. 1979) "The Effects of Nuclear War", and in much more detail.

What we have in this book is not detailed, and rather cursory, with the author drawing frequent comparisons between 9/11 and the 1958 nuclear war scenario. While there are several apt comparisons, the author seems to draw the line too often between every incident in the report to 9/11 -- often times, it is a stretch.

Overall, a fair book for the "beginner," but nothing new for the researcher.

There are four items of note in "The Doomsday Senerio." The major one is a briefly-declassified memo (since reclassified) that describes a worst case senerio from the 1950's and how the federal government planned to recover from that catastrophy. The memo was written before all of the nuclear test program was completed and there are still some holes in our knowledge about the full effects of all-out global thermonuclear war. The second feature of this book is an explaination of the text in sidebars that puts the words in context. The third feature is a series of black-and-white photos of nuclear tests conducted mostly in Nevada. The final is a discussion about the events of September 11, 2001 and the continutity of government plans becoming reality. A brief mention of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis is included.

This book is a valuable reference because the basic document shows how our federal government thought in the late 1950's. There is reason to believe that our government still has that mindset. I liked the photos. One shows that control surfaces from a B-17 vaporized when exposed to atomic flash--but fails to mention that those control surfaces were doped fabric, the aluminumized paint having a formula like rocket fuel. Of course it vaporized--I'm surprised that the entire magnesium-aluminum allow didn't catch fire!

The conclusion was that nobody could win a nuclear war. Actually, that isn't true. The United States won conclusively that nuclear Cold War against the USSR. We won it by not dropping a single nuke on the poor Russian and other peoples held captive by the Soviet government.

As I said, that "Revision of Emergency Plans book, 23 April 1958" memo forming the heart of this book is its most important contribution.

The National Archives has withdrawn/reclassified the DOD Emergency Plans Book used to write this book. That fact alone makes this book a must read. I was very excited to start this book but have to agree with the others its a little thin. The author or a subject matter expert probably could have added more information and rounded it out nicely. The introduction is excellent and a good chronology of recent COG events. The actual document was very dry. Reading this reminded me of another book I read, Dropshot The American Plan for WWIII. Only facts and little elaboration. For someone from the Nuclear/COG/Command and Control world this is probably a little basic but some from the outside I would have to say this is must have book but you can put it on your wish list for Christmas.

"The Doomsday Scenario" instantly catches one's attention with a glowing mushroom cloud on the book's cover. Closer examination also reveals that what is inside is potentially fascinating, too. Thanks to a brief window granted by the Freedom of Information Act, author Douglas Keeney was able to get his hands on a copy of the 1958 version of the U.S. Government's Emergency Plans Book. This book was the definitive study on impact of a nuclear attack on the United States. It focuses on the prelude, the actual attack, and the aftermath. It's fascinating and scary to see what our 'Cold Warriors' feared might be the end result of such a war. This manual predicts what would happen and recommends broad approaches to handling it after the fact.
Author Keeney published this manual in conjunction with his own notes regarding the manual. In it, he expands on the points made in the manual and also uses the events of September 11th, 2001 as an example of how the U.S. eventually DID face a disastrous attack of great magnitude. This makes for a quick and fascinating read for any who are students of the Cold War and intrigued by this subject matter.