Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History [Hardcover]

David Elias (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: June 26, 1999

Founded on the belief that the stock market remains the best vehicle for building wealth over time. Dow 40,000 is nothing less than a guidebook to building wealth in the coming decades.

Written in an engaging style that will make believers out of the most conservative bears, and packed with clear strategies and sample portfolios. Dow 40,000 reviews the economic forces destined to catapult the Dow Jones Industrials Average to 40,000 by the year 2016. It features:
-- The twelve stocks best positioned for explosive growth
-- Mutual funds designed to outperform even a bull market
-- Specific steps to take for success in the new global economy

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

To a growing number of analysts (see James Glassman and Kevin Hassett's Dow 36,000 and Charles W. Kadlec's Dow 100,000), it's not a question of if the Dow Jones Industrial Average will blast into the financial stratosphere, but how high it will go.

One such lofty projection comes from financial advisor and author David Elias, who believes that the Dow's collection of blue chips are poised to reach unprecedented levels, hitting 40,000 by the year 2016. It's heady stuff, to be sure, but not, as Elias carefully documents, if a record-setting bull market continues its mad charge into the new millennium. Formed in May 1896, the Dow took 76 years to reach the 1,000 plateau. After striking 4,000 in 1995, the market has required less than one year for each new 1,000-point milestone, touching 10,000 in March 1999. The Dow needs 9 percent annual growth to hit 40,000 in 2016, but how can the economy sustain this growth? Elias believes that forces such as direct foreign investment, domestic savings, and cooperative central-banking policies will drive this vigorous market, as will the dynamics of the New Economy, which allows for the coexistence of high economic growth, low interest rates, and low inflation. Elias describes the changing economic landscape as "unlike any seen in the twentieth century. In fact, the New Economy idea is heavily contingent on continued global growth and capitalization. New and expanding markets are opening their doors to the world, and investors will profit."

After building his case for the Dow's ascent--which includes a lucid study of classical and contemporary economic concepts--Elias looks at massive opportunities for new-millennium investors. He lists his criteria for investing in a company: seasoned management, experience in the global marketplace, brand-name recognition, a frontrunner position of in a specific industry, and financial strength to weather turbulence. Finally, Elias offers 12 sample portfolios, drawing from three sectors that he believes will lead the marketplace: technology, financial services, and health care. His "Rip Van Winkle" portfolio--one that an investor can buy and ignore for a year--includes Merck & Co., Citigroup Inc., and AT&T Corp. Of course, as with individual stocks themselves, it's impossible to predict what new levels the Dow will reach, but by book's end, 40,000 looks attainable. --Rob McDonald

From the Back Cover

Well-Researched Strategies to Soar with the Dow to 40,000-and Beyond! Date: June 2, 2016. DOW BREAKS 40,000! "The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for the first time in history, today broke through the once unthinkable 40,000 barrier. Leading market experts predict the market will continue to rocket upward. This new milestone was cheered by the millions of Americans who have ridden this unprecedented bull run to fabulous wealth. In other news..." Where will you be in 2016? If you start today to follow the strategies, techniques, and stock picks in Dow 40,000, you will be wealthy. Very wealthy. All because you learned how to take charge of your investments, and squeezed every dollar possible out of the ongoing stock market phenomenon. Dow 40,000 shows you investment strategies and stock holdings that should allow you to match and even outpace the Dow, building a portfolio that will guide you comfortably through your lifetime and into your retirement years. Look here for: Top 12 stock picks-Core holdings upon which to build a rock-solid portfolio. Eight model portfolios-Strategic stock combinations that should outpace the Dow Mutual fund strategies-How to use mutual funds for diversification and profit. Think forward 15 years. Will you be happy you took advantage of the most accessible bull market in history-or will you regret your inaction? Read Dow 40,000 today, and tomorrow you will thank yourself for finally taking the bull market by the horns-and building wealth in history's greatest financial opportunity.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 209 pages
• Publisher: Mcgraw-Hill (June 26, 1999)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0071351280
• ISBN-13: 978-0071351287
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6.2 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 2.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,391,659 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

23 of 24 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Well, this prediction is working out...., October 24, 2008

By 

Beerio - See all my reviews

This review is from: Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History (Hardcover)

With the Dow heading rapidly below 8000 this book's predictions are really looking great. We only need a 500% gain to get to the levels expected, so that's good...

Way to go David Elias you moron.

34 of 43 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Many land mines on the road to Paradise, September 5, 1999

By A Customer

This review is from: Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History (Hardcover)

The author was careful to point out that his firm does buy and sell the stocks he discusses. On an emotional level, I wanted to believe that the stocks would keep going up.

But my experience to date suggests there are a number of fundamental flaws with the author's reasoning.

1. There is no guarantee the foreign markets will create expected returns.

A. The fundamental problems that drove the Asian financial crisis are still with us. The currency and trade deficit problem has now mushroomed into a budget deficit and debt repayment problem.

B. Deflationary pressures continue worldwide. Rising debt in Asia, Latin America, the US Bubble, China, Japan and Russia. Apparently, these economic fundamentals are irrelevant to US corporations expanding market share, margins, or debt paying ability.

C. The solutions to the 1980s Latin American debt crisis are now coming undone. Ecuador recently defaulted on its speculative Brady Bonds. Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia are going down a slipper slope of debt default, and additional financial crisis.

D. What is to say these factors will not similarly affect the US in a mother of all bear markets?

2. Stock valuations

A. The author admits the stocks are overvalued.

B. Why buy overvalued stocks unless he was convinced that there were more fools that would buy? Sounds like gambling, not investing.

3. The author seems to believe that 9% growth rates are normal.

A. However, after checking the record back to 1800, I was not convinced with the author's assertion that populations changes resulted in stock price changes.

B. The author does not provide this data in his book--I consider this the major weakness in the author's thesis...for his argument that the Dow will reach 40,000 rests on the assertion that population changes will create a demand for stock.

C. And the author does not discuss the costs of creating more wealth. Where's the discussion of deflation and rising debt? Not there. Seemingly unimportant.

Summary

A. Even if the author is wrong, who's really going to make a point of asking for their money back in 2016? Distant forecasts, no accountability. A pipe dream. Nostradamas would be proud.

B. Dow 40,000 may happen by 2016, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how many land mines we as a world economy end of walking through.

C. I think it was a nice gesture for him to donate the proceeds to charitable organizations. Hopefully Elias won't need the money if the mother of all bear markets arrives.

Rating: I was going to give the book a 1-star, but my dog enjoyed the cover. Hence, my rating is skewed by the canine salivation index (CSI).

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars People are Foolish Aren't They?, May 2, 2005

By 

Stephen W. Gallo "[e-mail]" - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History (Hardcover)

I've got an alternate title: 'Don't Confuse a Bull Market with Brains'