Customer Reviews

Drafting to Win: The Ultimate Guide to Fantasy Football

5 star:		(5)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

While I haven't finished the book as of yet; I can say the following...the book has a lot of somewhat complex formulas, essentially, it's econometrics for fantasy football. If you don't know what econometrics is, I won't explain it here, suffice to say that it uses a lot of math formulas to attain players values.

The writer's theory behind all these formulas is interesting, and may be useful in attaining values for established players in the NFL played for a few years. It does lack however in acertaining values of rookies and players who have yet to emerge (sleepers). Again, I haven't finished the book as of yet so he may address these topics in a later chapter. Again, if you don't think doing math as a recreation is fun, then avoid the book.

This is the first book on Fantasy Football and I am proud to include it in my fantasy football library. Sure, there may have been one or two before, but in my opinion, Rob Zarzycki's Drafting to Win: The Ultimate Guide to Fantasy Football is the first definitive book on fantasy football. Drafting to Win (DTW) goes beyond the basics and explains the "how" and "why" behind draft theory. For many readers it will be their first exposure to Value Based Drafting (VBD) and baselines. The introduction to these concepts is worth the price of this book ten times over. This book has the best explanation of Value Based Drafting that I have ever seen and as an added bonus; it explains how to apply VBD to your draft in a dynamic manner (i.e. reacting to other owners draft actions/needs). I find myself re-reading it ever year before the FF season starts. It is that good!

The chapter on ranking players is really an inside look at the strategies of a "top ranked fantasy football player" since Rob finished second in 2002 and third in 2003 at the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF). However, DTW also discusses fantasy football's history and the basics in detail, but the heart of this book is the extensive draft preparation knowledge and the demonstration of his techniques in how to draft a winning team based on your own rankings of players. Yes, there is math involved; but the good news is that it starts slowly and builds as the techniques become more advanced. I found myself using most of the techniques, but sidestepping some that are quite advanced mathematically.

If there is a downside to the great ranking system/draft advice he illustrates, it is that Rob does not provide as much of his wisdom into start/bench decisions or waiver wire pick-ups as many readers will have liked. Similarly, he does not discuss Auction drafts much but he hints at a future book devoted exclusively to that much-deserved subject. I am eagerly awaiting that book.

I highly recommend this as your first book in an ever-expanding fantasy football library.

Sam Hendricks, author of Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football

I'm a poker player as well and Zarzycki's Drafting To Win (DTW) book reminds me of Doyle Brunson's Super System in that it gives you a complete understanding of what it takes to win consistently, only DTW teaches fantasy football instead of poker. I consider DTW to be the Fantasy Football Bible the same way poker players revere Doyle Brunson's Super System book as the Poker Bible. Whether you want to learn about beginner aspects such as how to find a league and choosing the league suited best for you or expert techniques such as how to rank players, project statistics and Zarzycki's bread and butter -- how to draft players -- Zarzycki covers it all. What I respect most is that the author himself has applied the methods in DTW to his own fantasy football play and has won thousands of dollars on all levels of fantasy football, from local leagues to the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) in Las Vegas. DTW has taken my game to the next level and I can't wait to start benefiting monetarily at the end of each and every season. Reading "Rashaan Salaam" review might scare some people into thinking that the math is difficult. I'm not an engineer by any means and found the math to be laid out in a very simple manner, pretty-easily absorbed. If I can understand this stuff, anybody can. I find Zarzycki's drafting strategies amazing. I wish I would've originated the concepts found in DTW...oh well, at least now I can benefit from them. This book is a must for ALL levels.

...but poor execution. I utilized some of his strategies for two drafts this past year. First, I attempted the his dynamic value based drafting, until I found that the calculations took too long and/or were too complicated to do during the draft because of time pressures. I then used a few of the static VBD formulas, which I will say gave me a perceived edge on my competition. I came out of one of my drafts with what I saw as one of the top 3 teams (out of 10).

The major flaw of this book is that I found the author's explanations confusing when he got into the meat of the calculations. I work as an analyst, so this stuff is not overly complex for me.... I did, however, find it difficult to absorb this material, and it was hard to go back and reference something because the sections of explanation of the formulas were not broken out in an easy-to-understand manner. The book could do with more helpful tables and figures.

I gave this book 3 stars (really 3.5) because I liked the insight and the mathematics makes sense, but the explanations and descriptions could defninitely be improved

(This is a re-edit of an earlier review.)

It is a fundamental principle of any non-random game that a person wins by exploiting whatever advantages one has, in order to outperform the competition. It's kind of like each week's Fantasy Football game itself -- you need to outscore your opponents, and you're given six categories (QB, RB, etc.) in which to do it. Well, Fantasy Football overall has several categories too: ranking players, draft mechanics, start/sit decisions, and waiver wire pickups, being the most obvious. To borrow from the medical field, with most of the categories Zarzycki's advice is the equivalent of "bloodletting is good generally, but in some cases using leeches is better". When it comes to draft mechanics, though, he's mapping the genome.

His big flaw, in my view, is his section on ranking players. One of his principle concepts is that you gain no advantage whatsoever by doing your own analysis of data to make projections for individual players. Instead, he says you should just to take a position by position ranking list -- any ranking list -- from one of the fantasy football magazines, because, given the degree of randomness from year to year, you're not going to be able to come up with anything better yourself.

He follows that up with a second step which is in one way a stroke of genius and in another way a very lazy mistake: you predict the points that the top receiver will receive by averaging the score of the top receiver over the past three years, the second receiver by averaging the scores of the #2 receiver, etc. You do that for each position, then you match those numbers against your ranking lists.

It's a stroke of genius because it calls upon you to look at the actual numbers from your league, which (of course) are based on the scoring system you're using. Most books do not sufficiently emphasize the extent to which variations in scoring systems affect draft strategy, leading to some appallingly bad recommendations ("start with three RB's, and don't take a TE until...").

It's a lazy mistake because among other things it misallocates the impact of injuries. Actual end-of-season numbers are deflated because of unforeseen calamaties, most commonly injuries. Those numbers then get applied against your ranking list without regard for known information regarding injuries. One example is Ronnie Brown: the dude's got issues. More importantly, his quarterback has SERIOUS issues. (QB injuries have as big an impact on their RB's numbers as their WRs' numbers, but that's another story.) So last year, and for the rest of his career, Ronnie's projected value should have gotten a major downward adjustment. But Zarzycki's approach was as likely to give a bump to Ronnie, and drop down a relatively solid guy like Frank Gore or (O, the irony) Clinton Portis.

I won't get into a discussion of his draft mechanics except to say that it's so far ahead of anything else that's been written that it really is like comparing mapping the genome to treating illnesses with leeches. It's very complicated. (At some point someone will write a computer program that does all this stuff for you during a draft.) But it tells you how to figure out when you should take your first TE. And that's infinitely better than the typical one-size-fits-none "don't take your TE until round 6" advice so often seen.

It's unfortunate that Zarzycki didn't put the same amount of study into projecting players. As he acknowledges, that's the most fun part of the whole process. And, there is knowledge out there that the magazines aren't yet up to speed on. For example, 2009 was the first year that any magazines referred to the Rule of 370, which was first published in the 2004 edition of Pro Football Forecast. While the Rule isn't quite what most people think it is (I suspect it's actually three rules), it's very useful information that would have saved people from blowing up their teams by wasting a first-overall pick in recent years on guys like LJ or Shaun Alexander, who were due for a crash.

There are things that can be predicted with great accuracy, such as breakout seasons and crash-and-burn seasons. Those predictions can have a monumental impact on a person's success. Find one player who is undervalued by, say, two rounds, and if the rest of your team plays to par, you're in the playoffs. Find two such players and that will win you a championship. Similarly, if you fail to recognize that your top rated player is due to crash, and you pick him, you're toast. The magazines, on which Zarzycki would have you rely, are way behind the curve on a lot of this stuff, and that's not going to change anytime soon.

Okay, so let's say you apply the knowledge that is there to be had from any of the numerous other books on fantasy football. Let's say you come up with a good ranking list and a good projection of numbers. How valuable is his state-of-the-art drafting system? That's a question he needs to answer for his next edition. There's an easy way to do it, too -- do some mock drafts at the end of the season, once the final actual numbers are known. (Winner determined by total points, not any kind of week-by-week analysis.) Even in that context, it is beyond question that his system will outperform everybody else's (that's how bad most of the advice out there is... even when you know the final numbers, they still get it seriously wrong), but by how much? More importantly, will it give enough of an advantage over a basic tier system to triumph if you stick it with the worst drafting spot? To those questions I'd say not much and no, respectively, but damn, I'd like to know for sure one way or the other.

So, you could look at this book as being seriously bipolar. In part it's a celebration of ignorance, and in part it's the first real attempt at a level of analysis that will win somebody a Nobel Prize for fantasy football. Proceed accordingly.

If you're reading this review, then the book is a perfect fit for you. You are either a diehard or FF novice. Regardless of what category you fall into, Mr. Zarzycki's approach caters to both. Much of the fantasy football content out there is stale, generic and downright useless. Zarzycki offers a nice simplistic tutorial for beginners (which experienced players will want to skip) but then quickly moves into elements of drafting techniques that can take you to the next level and help you to compete with even the most experienced fantasy players. I've played fantasy sports for nearly 20 years with much success and still found Zarzycki's info to be helpful in my preparation this year. The math is made simple in the form presented. In this ever evolving industry, we always need cutting edge content to take us to the next level and Zarzycki does just that.

This is an excellent book and perfect for all levels of Fantasy Football players. I have been playing Fantasy Football for 12 years and thought I knew all there was to know. I bought the book out of curiousity because of the author's fantasy football success - wondering if he knew something I didn't. Well he did! Even experienced fantasy football players will get something out of this book. Interesting, well-written and great information!

This book is the absolute cutting edge of fantasy football publications. It is invaluable information for both beginners and experts alike.
If you are an experienced player, it is recommended that you skip the first couple of chapters, as these are for beginners. But as Mr Zarzycki begins to explain his rating system, and what I'll call floating ratings, as they can actually change every round of your draft, it is truly revolutionary.
I have been playing fantasy football for 18 years, and this is the best system I have seen. If you want to succeed at fantasy football, then this book is a must. Mr. Zarzycki's success speaks for itself.

I generally play poker, last year was my first season participating in fantasy football. I read this book Drafting to win and took down first place. If you have any sort of mathematical background I highly recommend this book. Better yet if you are a competitive person who likes to win then get the book. If you like to loose don't get the book.