Customer Reviews

Earth's Future Climate

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Earth's Future Climate, by Henry Willis, is a great introduction to paleoclimate basics for the layperson. Using everyday language, the reader quickly moves from the beginning of time to present day weather; getting a feel for the wide variety of factors contributing to today's climate. The historical data is discussed, as well as a quick and clear explanation on how to read the paleoclimate data.

The paleoclimate data reveals how the Earth's past climate went from warm to Ice Age conditions in 3 to 5 years according to emerging scientific theories. Henry Willis is well organized in his presentation and as a result Terracycles recommends Earth's Future Climate as an introduction to paleoclimate concepts.

I heard Mr. Willis on a talk show a couple of months ago. The
host, who himself had co-authored a book on rapid climate change,
claimed that by reading "Earth's Future Climate" in a "couple of hours,"
one could become fairly well acquainted with the subject. I got the book,
and while I don't exactly agree that it only takes a few hours, I absolutely
concur that this short, highly-readable book, is an excellent overview of
the very complex subject of climate change and prediction. Indeed it does
only take a few hours to read, but I had a very limited background on many
of the subjects covered, so I've read it about 3 times. After the third read
I feel that I indeed have a decent overview. The author covers quite a
bit of material in each of the short chapters, yet succinctly, and writes
in a very friendly manner, wanting the reader to "get it," despite the many
complexities. And most importantly, he seems to back up
all of his contentions with good science.

Mr. Willis' main contention is that while we are in a warming period,
it is not due to mankind's increasing use of greenhouse gases. He posits
that the earth's climate goes in cycles of mostly ice ages, followed by warmer
cycles. In fact we are on the rebound of what is known as "The Little Ice Age,"
which occurred after another cycle of warm temperatures before the Renaissance.
This cold cycle, along with devastating diseases, ravaged the earth's population,
and ended around 1900. Mr Willis traces many rounds of Ice Ages and warming
periods, going back thousands and millions of years, using ice cores, which he
calls "time machines" (Ch. 17, very interesting). Analysing the chemical content
(using oxygen) of ice cores tell scientists very much about what the earth's climate
is at a given time.

What causes these cycles? Well, prior to the Industrial Revolution
mankind couldn't have been a cause, so what he claims is that the cycles
have to do with sunspot cycles, which come in 11-year cycles themselves,
but their effect is in fact more pronounced during the height of the Gleibsser
Period (70-90 years). We are in a period of rapid global warming now (c. 2002)
because we are at the height of a Gleibsser Period. There are also interesting
discussions of much larger cycles, like the Milankovich cycle.

One of themes of the book is that "correlation is not causation." The
author feels that even though there are undoubted signs of global warming
(GW), the correlation between increased greenhouse gases and GW is simply
not proven scientifically. On p. 110 a "meticulously conducted study by two
Danish scientists" is cited, which claims with a "probability of 84.6%" that
GW is caused by sunspot cycles. This of course flatly contradicts the web
site of the Union of Concerned Scientists, one of his references: "the warming
effect due to increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is estimated to
be more than 8 times greater than the effect of solar irradiance." I guess each
will have to make up his/her own mind! Personally I found the author's
explication of vast cycles of cold and warm cycles predating the Industrial
Revolution to be surprisingly convincing.

The other major contention of "Earth's Future Climate" is that global
climate change happens very rapidly, in as little as ten years, from relatively
stable times. While the author does agree that global warming is a fact, he thinks that
because GW might cause changes in the Atlantic ocean currents, we could actually
enter another ice age! The explantion is not simple, but the writing
is interesting and clear. Specifically, in Ch. 18, "Gyres," the
discussion in on Atlantic Ocean currents, which
contain "thermohaline sinks," where cold, salty water sinks down
in tremendous volume, causing the currents (by wind) to circulate warm air.
Because there is more rainfall with GW, the salinity of the sinking water is
decreasing, which could disrupt the warming. Also, while some of the world's
glaciers are melting, because of increased rainfall this melting might be
counterbalanced by more accumulation of ice!

What makes the entire topic so complicated is that there are countless
factors that affect climate in one way or another, which cause other
things to happen, while of course the earth itself tries to re-balance
all these competing factors. In fact on p. 37 the author contends that
the system is so chaotic it is simply not predictable, even with the
best of computer models.

I've written a lot already, but I realize that this short book covers
many times more than what I've tried to summarize here. It also includes
a very good glossary, and you can scan in the bibliography as text, which
is mostly web sites, and have some fun looking around the Internet. I did find that
some of the URL's no longer exist or I had to search a given site to find the new URL.

A small fault with the book was that unless I read it very
carefully, I wasn't sure whether Mr. Willis was promoting his own
views or the views of scientists who claim that humanity's use of
fossil fuels is having a huge impact on global climate, with whom he
does not agree.

I very highly recommend this primer on global climate change to those
with limited time and background, but concern!

The eBook version of this book is well thought out. The bookmarks permit an immediate jump to any one of the chapters in the book.

It is my opinion that the subject of this book should be of concern to all. Too often today we receive "sound bites" through our news media that do not provide an accurate description of the facts. This book is a rare exception.

The balanced discussion provided allows the informed reader to make his or her decision regarding the subject of global warming and global climate change. What I like about this book is the fact that Henry Willis does not buy into the accepted theories currently being spouted about global warming. Rather, he presents a viable discussion of facts, weather predictability, and the true cause for global climate change.

This is one of the very best books I've read on the subject of global climate change. It is well-researched and written in an easy to read style. If you want to know all the arguments surround the question of global climate change, this book is a must read.