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The Egyptian Economy, 1952-2000: Performance Policies and Issues

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In the 1980s, as a post-graduate student in Middle East studies, I read Khalid Ikram's earlier book Egypt: Economic Management in a Period of Transition (Johns Hopkins University Press). My Cambridge University professor described it as "outstanding." Now Ikram has written another outstanding work.
This book examines economic policymaking in Egypt in the period 1952 to 2000. The book focuses on the more durable issues that policymakers confronted during this period, rather than (to quote Ikram) "on a day to day chronology or on quotidian details." The issues are covered in chapters dealing with investment and productivity, the balance of payments, public finance, the capital market and monetary policy, the labor force and employment, and poverty and income distribution, in addition to three chapters that cover broader issues of political economy.
There is an excellent final chapter on what Egypt needs to do in order to sustain growth in the future, that, in addition to dealing with questions connected with an outward looking strategy provides an in-depth analysis of institutional issues, such as the bureaucracy, the commercial judicial system, the system of taxation, shortcomings in the provision of trained labor, the cost to the environment of economic growth, the constraints imposed by the availability of Nile water, and how the present system of planning and economic management is increasingly being hemmed in by globalization and privatization, and will probably have to be replaced by a more flexible method of indicative planning.
Ikram, a former Director of the World Bank's Egypt department, clearly enjoys unparalleled access to Egyptian policymakers, and the book contains insights from interviews with several Ministers responsible for economic policy. He also quotes from Cabinet studies, as well as from studies by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The book is a veritable tour de force, and I recommend it highly to anyone interested in the development of Egypt and of the Middle East.

This book is a model of what an interesting country economic study should be. The author has the perfect credentials: a long association with Egypt, a previous book on the subject, access to the leading Egyptian economic policymakers, access to the data bases and analyses of the World Bank and the IMF (as director of the World Bank's Egypt department) sound training in economics (affiliation with Cambridge and Harvard Universities), and the ability to write fluently. The book, therefore, is informed by acute technical analysis and pertinent personal anecdote. Excellent.

This book presents a unique view of economic development and economic policymaking in Egypt during the period 1952 to 2000. A university professor, I have also worked as a consultant for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, USAID, and a number of private companies on economic issues facing the Middle East, and have been struck by the paucity of good country analyses and discussions of policymaking that were available. In part this appeared to result from inadequate data, in part because from a lack of understanding of policymakers' motivations, and perhaps in part from a lack of sustained work in these countries.
"The Egyptian Economy, 1952-2000" goes far to fill all these gaps in the context of Egypt. The analysis of the basic economic areas -- investment, savings, productivity, foreign trade and payments, external assistance, labor and employment, poverty, income distribution, etc -- is impressive. In addition, and what adds tremendous value to the book, is the discussion of the dynamics of policymaking, drawing on Ikram's 30-year association with Egypt and his probably unique access to the data bases as well as the thinking both of Egyptian policymakers and of the major Western financial supporters of Egypt. There is also an absolutely excellent discussion of the institutional and strategic issues that Egypt must deal with in order to sustain growth in the future. This is an outstanding work, and let us hope that similar ones are produced for other Middle East countries.

I have monitored the Egyptian economy for a major international bank for almost 20 years and advised the donor organizations of the most important western country on economic developments in Egypt for nearly ten. I wish that a book of this caliber had been available earlier. It is a cut above anything else written on the subject. It analyzes the major issues, goes behind the scenes to examine the actions of policymakers, maintains a balanced treatment of the shortcomings both of Egyptian policymakers and of the donors (such as the IMF, the World Bank, and USAID), examines weaknesses in the data, and presents sensible and practical advice on strategy and policy, including required improvements in the functioning of key institutions. The book is written clearly, and the message of even the more technical chapters comes through easily. It should be required reading for everyone who has to deal with the Egyptian economy or has an interest in it.

This book examines the chief issues that Egyptian policymakers faced during the period starting with the Free Officers' revolution in July 1952 to the end of the Second Millenium (although there are occasional references to events up to 2002). The emphasis is on durable, structural issues, many of which continue to resonate with policymakers.
Readers looking for a detailed account of events on the lines of "this happened, then that happened" may be disappointed. Ikram's technique is to sketch out broad periods that shared major similarities and were largely affected by the same important economic events, eg, the period of the nationalizations and Arab socialism; the infitah or Open Door policy and the influx of oil revenues, worker remittances, foreign aid; the period of falling oil prices, squeezed resources, and major debt reschedulings; and the era of stabilization and the beginnings of significant structural reform, at least in the area of privatizing many of the public enterprises. He then examines the most important issues and questions that policymakers had to deal with during these periods. The emphasis is mainly on macroeconomic issues and policies. These are analyzed using tools of modern economic analysis, and supplemented by interviews with Egyptian policymakers (to see the compulsions that they were under) and from documents and discussions with representatives of the main providers of financial support to Egypt. A particularly fine chapter on what Egypt needs to do to sustain growth in the next 20 years or so rounds off the book.
The data in the book are more reliable than in any other study of the Egyptian economy, since Ikram has had continuous access to the data banks of the World Bank (the book's blurb says he is a former director of that organization), and of the International Monetary Fund. He also has had access to a considerable body of studies and other material from Egyptian ministries, the Central Bank of Egypt, and the Egyptian statistical agency. The book is written in a clear style, with a welcome touch of humor. In addition to appealing to students of Egypt and the Middle East, the book should provide excellent supplementary reading for courses in economic development and in economic policymaking.
This book is apparently the first in a new series from Routledge on Middle Eastern economies. It will be a very hard act to follow.

This is the most important book to be published on the Egyptian economy in the last 25 years at least. It analyses the main issues that the policymakers faced and gives an inside view of the dynamics of policymaking. All the important issues are covered in the balance of payments, public finance, monetary policy, labor and employment, poverty and income distribution, etc. I particularly liked Ikram's handling of data, which is used with sensitivity and a healthy scepticism where he doubts its validity (although he has had access to the data bases of the World Bank and the IMF).

The other reviewers have made the points that I would have liked to have made. I have read every significant book that has been written on the Egyptian economy in the last 20 years, and this is better than all of them. By skillfully combining acute technical analysis, the best available data, and insider knowledge of the thinking of international agencies and Egyptian policymakers, this book sets the standard by which all subsequent studies of the Egyptian economy will be judged.