The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematic) [Paperback]

Ian Hacking (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0521685575 | ISBN-13: 978-0521685573 | Publication Date: July 31, 2006 | Edition: 2

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and determine the space within which philosophical debate on the subject is still conducted. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends. Ian Hacking is the winner of the Holberg International Memorial Prize 2009.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"A fascinating in-depth study of the philosophical aspects of the concept of probability during its founding days."
Andreas Karlsson, Uppsala University


"[Hacking's] knowledge of the pertinent literature is considerable and the vigorous style of writing makes for enjoyable reading. Hacking states that his book was not written as history: be that as it may, but anyone who is interested in the history of probability and statistics, either as a philosopher or as a statistician, will find much here to think about."
A.I. Dale, Mathematical Reviews

Book Description

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. First published in 1975, this edition includes an introduction that contextualizes his book in light of developing philosophical trends.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Paperback: 246 pages
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press; 2 edition (July 31, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0521685575
• ISBN-13: 978-0521685573
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6 x 0.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #342,441 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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52 of 53 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars excellent historical account of probability theory at its infancy, March 14, 2008

By 

Michael R. Chernick "statman31147" (Holland PA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematic) (Paperback)

This is the second edition of a book originally published in 1975. The main addition seems to be a large chapter-like section titled "Introduction 2006: The Archaeology of probable reasoning" that puts the work in contect with the thinking, research and publications from 1975-2006 that relate to the topic of the book.

The main premise of the book is that although probabilistic ideas may have been around before 1670 and the detailed mathematical theory of probability and statistics occurred in the 20th century, the original work of men such as Pascal, Liebniz, Laplace, De Moivre, Huygens, and Jacques Bernoulli from around 1670 to the early 1700s really mark the emergence of probability as a discipline and the development of mathematical results that spawned the development of various theories of probability that came about in the 20th Century.

This book is not a technical book and the specific mathematics that is covered is fairly easy for the layperson to understand. The key Idea is that in the work of Pascal and others dual concepts of probability emerged and the distinctions between the two concepts were not clearly delineated at the time. In a very historical account (much like the works of Porter and Stigler)that is also very philosophical in nature hacking points to the two concepts of probability. One is based solely on relative frequencies of occurrences based on empirical data. This led to the development in the 20th century of the work by Richard von Mises and A. N. Kolmogorov. The second concept is based on degrees of belief and led shortly to the work of Thomas Bayes and in the 20th century, Bruno De Finetti, Harold Jeffreys and L. J. Savage in what became known as the Bayesian or subjectivist school of probability and statistical inference.

Hacking refers to the frequentist approach as aleatory probability and the Bayesian approach as epistemic probability. Hacking sees more than two schools of probability, induction and statistical inference. It is Hacking's contention that the emergence of probability can be attributed precisely to the time about 1670 when the work of Pascal first came out. He sees this strong development as the result of the need for probability in several areas. The earliest was games of chance. But it was only because of issues in the law, theology, economics, physics, atronomy and other sciences that the need led to the field flourishing with the top minds of the 17th and 18th centuries addressing the philosphical and mathematical issues. Included were Newton, Liebniz, Pascal, De Moivre, Laplace, Huygens and Bernoulli.

As a professional statistician I found it interesting to learn how the works of the late 1600s and early 1700s influenced probability and statistics as it developed in the 20th century. Some of this work was familiar to me but much of it was not. For example, I found it interesting to learn that the "first" theorem in probability wsa Jacques Benoulli's proof of the weak law of large numbers. This was given as part of his work "Ars conjectandi", the art of conjecturing. Bernoulli died in 1705 and it wasn't until 1713 that his Nephew Nicholas Bernoulli was able to get it into print.

This book is very well researched and the author presents his case in a very articulate manner. I think anyone with an serious interest in probability would enjoy this book. It also contains an excellent bibliography that is 15 pages long. I have not read it but I expect that the authors other book "The Taming of Chance" would be equally informative and fascinating.

15 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Another Very Interesting Hacking Book; 4.5 stars, December 13, 2008

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R. Albin (Ann Arbor, Michigan United States) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematic) (Paperback)

Another very interesting book by Ian Hacking. This extended essay is an ambitious combination of general intellectual history, specific history of probability theory, and some reflections on the philosophical implications of these ideas and how they developed. Ideas of probability were essentially a new development in human thought, emerging only in the 17th century. Hacking begins with several chapters on the background changes that made the emergence of probability theory possible. Probabilistic thinking is made possible by the profound intellectual changes that form the foundation of the Scientific Revolution of the 17th century, including new ideas about evidence and causation. These ideas emerge from abandonment of the emphasis on Aristotlein deductive approaches to knowledge and acceptance of more empirical approaches emerging from the "low" sciences of medicine and alchemy. Against this background, several important figures like Pascal, Leibniz, and Bernoulli begin to develop more probability ideas. Hacking is very good on the immediate and philosophical concerns that drove these investigations. For Pascal, for instance, the development of his contribution to probability and decision theory was bound up in his Jansenist theological preoccupations. Hacking traces the development of these ideas, often with interesting reference to 20th century discussions of probabilistic thought with a minimum of technical language and a wide range of knowledge of this topic. He shows how a number of factors, for example, the need for Dutch provinces to develop profitable ways of selling annuities, contributed to the develop of probabilistic thinking. He concludes with a very interesting and surprising observation about one of the philosophical consequences of the emergence of probability, that it made it possible for Hume to pose the skeptical problem of induction. A really stimulating book.

1 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Though it is unlikely to change your life, November 2, 2011

By 

S. Matthews "Sean Matthews" (Mainz, Germany) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematic) (Paperback)

There is a blurb on the back of my copy, from Lorraine Daston, claiming 'there are books that will change your life, and this is one of them'. Well, perhaps (were they dating at the time, maybe?). There may be some small fragment of the population which, after reading this, will be prompted to move to an Ashram, though surely most (even all two or three) of them, when they hang out in bookshops at all, hang out in the self-help section, or at the comics, not the history and philosophy of science. I'm anyway definitely not in that fragment - my life has sailed on unmodified in the aftermath. Nevertheless, this is 180 odd pages on the historical development of the concept of probability that is worth anybody's time (esp. if you are interested in enlightenment culture, machine learning, and philosophy, like me).

Particularly interesting was the way Hacking distinguishes clearly between epistemic and aleatoric probability (we all know that this distinction exists, but Hacking is good the connections, historical traditions, etc. and has well-defined vocabulary): there is a lot of good perspective here. As Hacking wrote this, epistemic probability was about to go out and conquer the world without anybody noticing (coding theory, machine learning, even computer hardware, digital television, all make use of epistemic probability concepts). Hacking doesn't mention this at all, but he published this right at the birth.

Now on to volume II.