The Emerging Democratic Majority (Lisa Drew Books) (Hardcover)

~ (Author), Ruy Teixeira (Author) "In 1969, a year after Richard Nixon won the presidency, Kevin Phillips, an aide to Attorney General John Mitchell, published a book entitled The Emerging..." (more)
Key Phrases: nonideopolis counties, postindustrial metropolises, progressive centrism, New Deal, New York, New Jersey (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In 1969 a prescient Kevin Phillips published The Emerging Republican Majority, predicting the rise of the conservative Republican movement. Now Judis, a senior editor at the New Republic, and Teixeira, a fellow at the Century Foundation and author of The Disappearing American Voter, argue that, if current demographic and political trends continue, a new realignment of political power is inevitable, this time sweeping Democrats to power. In support of their thesis they argue that the electorate is becoming increasingly diverse, with growing Asian, Hispanic and African-American populations-all groups that tend to vote Democratic. On the other hand, the number of white Americans, the voting population most likely to favor Republicans, remains static. Further, according to the authors, America's transition from an industrial to a postindustrial economy is also producing voters who trend strongly Democratic. Judis and Teixeira coin the word "ideopolis" for the geographic areas where the postindustrial economy thrives. They also argue that other changes, specifically the growing educated professional class and the continuing "gender gap," will benefit Democrats, whose political ideology is more consonant with the needs and beliefs of women and professionals. Judis and Teixeira predict that all these elements will converge by 2008, at the latest, when a new Democratic majority will emerge. Wisely, they warn that their predictions are just that, and that events might overtake the trends. But their warning will bring little comfort to Republicans, who will find their well-supported thesis disturbing.
Copyright 2002 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Library Journal

Kevin Phillip's The Emerging Republican Majority predicted the conservative revolution ushered in during the Reagan 1980s. Judis (William F. Buckley, Jr. and the Paradox of American Democracy) and Teixeira (America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters) present an insightful and plausible case for a resurgent Democratic majority, which he believes will ascend by the end of the decade. The majority will be centrist, rather than leftist, and will be bolstered by African Americans, Hispanic and Asian minorities, women, professional employees, and the white working and middle classes that formerly made up the "Reagan Democrats." This majority's geographic base will be the "ideopolises" large metropolitan areas linked by technology cities and suburbs. The authors conclude that despite the events of September 11, 2001, assumed to have enhanced President Bush's popularity, a Democratic majority is soon to emerge when a presidential candidate synthesizes the aforementioned groups, who share similar Democratic economic and social interests. A thoughtful and well-argued book; recommended for all public libraries. Karl Helicher, Upper Merion Twp. Lib., King of Prussia, PA
Copyright 2002 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 224 pages
• Publisher: Scribner (August 27, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0743226917
• ISBN-13: 978-0743226912
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.3 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #657,004 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

68 of 80 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars It's about time somebody said so!, September 1, 2002

By	David A. Bede (Singapore) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

With George W. Bush riding high in the opinion polls (for the moment, at least) and the Democrats struggling to establish a solid majority in either house of Congress this fall, the title of this book alone is likely to make some Republicans write it off as wishful thinking. They do so at their own peril. Just as the Democrats' 1964 across-the-board landslide proved to be the beginning of the end of the New Deal coalition, Judis and Teixeira argue that George W. Bush's (near-) victory and the narrow survival of the Republican majority in Congress in 2000 will soon be recognized as the last gasp of 1980s laissez-faire conservatism. Of course, partisans of all stripes love to believe that such a watershed in their favor is always just around the bend, but Judis and Teixeira do make a remarkably solid, evenhanded case for their prediction.

The many analogies they draw between the 1960s and the current political climate are probably self-evident to most political junkies already. In both eras, the party in power overestimated its own popularity and the durability of its voting base, and suffered from a growing rift between moderates and those on the far left or right within its ranks. Much as Watergate provided the Democrats with a brief respite from their impending years in the wilderness, the Clinton scandals and Al Gore's somewhat inept response to them have enabled the Republicans to remain in power beyond the scope of their current voting base.

Judis and Teixeira argue that that base has already been showing signs of fragmentation for a decade and will inevitably continue to do so; and they provide a detailed demographic and geographical analysis for their argument. As the Republicans continue to alienate most minority groups, the Democrats' already significant advantage among nonwhite voters will only improve (a process that has been exacerbated rather than eased by the Bush administration's response to September 11, they argue). Among whites, the longstanding Republican advantage is past its peak and began to crack as early as 1992. Judis and Teixeira predict that in the coming decade, these trends have the potential to leave the Republicans with a hardcore support base on the all-important Electoral College map nearly as small as that held by the Democrats in the 1980s, concentrated in the Deep South and upper Rockies. Judis and Teixeira provide predictions for all 50 states, ranging from thumbnail sketches to pages-long analyses depending on the size and degree of change in each state. Although no one is likely to agree with all of their predictions (I don't), the breadth and detail of the study is fascinating regardless of your political allegiance.

Although the authors' political persuasion is unmistakable, there is very little analysis of issues to be found in the book. Instead, they stick to analyzing the parties' respective positions on the hottest issues of the era. Their bluntness in addressing the mistakes and cynical moves of both parties in the past 30 years is likely to offend people of both extremes. But for the more moderate among us, it's a breath of fresh air to read in the same place that, yes, the Republicans did build their majority on appeals to racism, misogyny and homophobia and, yes, the far left can in fact be hypersensitive and intolerant in its own way. Again, anyone with an opinion (again, including myself) is likely to disagree with their characterizations at some point, and it could also be argued that they distort the realities of the 2000 political landscape and overstate the excesses of the post-60s Left in order to better fit their argument. But overall, it is a solidly grounded argument, and Judis and Teixeira do acknowledge four common Republican counterarguments and make a solid case against each of them.

Inevitably, most readers will either want to believe this book before reading it, or hope it's wrong and refuse to be swayed as a result. But either way, it's a formidable and well- supported thesis. I look forward to re-reading it in a few years to see how many of the predictions prove true.

55 of 70 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Concise and complete with numbers!, September 1, 2002

By	Alan Deikman (Fremont, CA United States) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Amazon Verified Purchase

With a great deal of insight and nearly zero partisan rhetoric, Judis and Teixeira (how DO you pronounce that?) offer an easy to read political primer about how social and economic cycles fit in with political cycles. Many political events that were mysterious to me were clearly explained, drawing on historical precedent right up through Election 2000. I found myself convinced that the authors know what is going to happen next in American politics.

The conclusion: the Democratic party will emerge as a new majority by the end of the decade. The Republicans may or may not retain the House this year, and GWB may or may not win re-election in 2004. The authors don't pretend to be fortune tellers; instead they chart trends based on comprehensive analysis.

The text backs up its logic with lots of figures, sometimes charted. Part of the book goes state by state for key states and regions, sometimes down to the county level to show what has been (and will be) happening. Each and every explanation made sense to me, without being too tedious to follow.

The only negative thing I can say is to echo something Joe Conason mentioned in Salon. The authors completely ignore the mainstream media bias against Gore in Election 2000. However, since that really isn't the topic of this book it doesn't take away from the five stars I give it.

23 of 28 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Thought provoking, intriguing, but not 100%convincing, December 27, 2002

By	Robert Moore (Chicago, IL USA) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This is a very interesting and provocative study of the changing demographics in the US, and some of the authors' contentions would seem to be incontestable. For instance, there is no question that shifts in population in several key states definitely favors the Democrats. Changes in minority population in California has already shifted that state solidly into the Democratic column, and the same appears likely with Texas, Arizona, and Florida by the end of the current decade. Although those states remain at the moment in the GOP camp, most signs indicate that things are shifting towards the Democrats.

My hesitancy with the book lies with their assumptions that the growing segment of American society that is employed by the technology sector rather than in manufacturing will provide a solid Democratic constituency. As these segment expands, its political allegiance is likely to fragment. Also, the book does not deal with many other real-world factors in the ongoing vitality of the GOP. For instance, the current right wing bias of the news media (despite constant counterfactual talk of the liberal media) has had a disturbing influence on American politics and public opinion. Or, another example, the lack of strong leadership in the Democratic party has been a major factor in the GOP being able to gain control of Congress. I might agree that the demographic make up of the United States populace ought to favor the Democrats, but the ineffectual Democratic leadership coupled with the high effective public relations campaign on the Right has offset many of the Democrats demographic advantages.

The Democrats need to do more than rely upon shifts in the American electorate: they need to counter much of the Right's effectiveness in framing the issues being debated. For instance, the media most decidedly is not liberal, but the Democrats have done an abysmal job of combating that widespread assumption. They also need to formulate a definite alternative to the GOP. Potential presidential candidates such as Joseph Lieberman are almost indistinguishable from most Republicans. They also need to motivate their potential voting base. For instance, in the midterm 2002 election, far less of their potential voting base came out to vote. If they do not, they will not be able to take advantage of their demographic edge.

One last issue that troubled me in the book was the fact that while the authors clearly support the Democratic party, they support a remarkably conservative, moderate Democratic party. Now, perhaps this is realistic and my own views unrealistic. My own political beliefs are far to the left of the Democratic party (I tend to vote Democratic simply because they are less conservative than the Republicans), which I see as having become as conservative as most moderate Republicans. The authors seem at points to advocate tailoring the Democratic message with the trends of society, based upon polling data. I personally would prefer candidates who, while not unconcerned with the opinions of everyday citizens, nonetheless articulate a vision of where we, as a nation, need to go and how to get there.

One simple minded criticism of this book is that its contentions were not born out by the 2002 midterm elections. In fact, their contentions might not be born out in the 2004 elections either. The trends that they are trying to identify are longer term than that, and it could take up to a decade for much of the trend to manifest itself fully.