Customer Reviews

The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World

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Paul Roberts has put together a piece of reporting to do his profession proud. This is not just a book about oil, it covers energy as a whole. You can quibble with this or that detail (and I will), but this is an excellent introduction, the best single book on energy now available for ordinary citizens.

Roberts synthesizes the information he gathers superbly. The viewpoint he conveys is more optimistic than Heinberg's excellent The Party's Over (see my review) but more urgent and pessimistic than Economist reporter Vaitheeswaran's Power to the People (see my review). Roberts has no utopian libertarian illusions about business, but realizes that business is inevitably going to be part of the solutions that emerge, and so he gives careful thought to the role of corporations and industries.

Roberts does not explain how oil geologists use Hubbert's Curve to estimate oil reserves, and this is a weakness compared to Heinberg, Goodstein (Out of Gas -- see my review), or the oil geologists themselves, Deffeyes (Hubbert's Peak) or Campbell (The Coming Oil Crisis). But he doesn't base his analysis on the over-optimistic estimates of the U.S.G.S. or Exxon Mobil, so this is not a major shortcoming. A bigger problem is that he doesn't mention or apply EROEI analysis (energy return on energy invested). If he did, he might be more pessimistic, and for this crucial physics application, Heinberg and Goodstein are quite valuable.

Based on everything he learned in his reporting, Roberts concludes THE END OF OIL with recommendations for U.S. energy policy. Here are his three major proposals:

1) The government should move immediately and aggressively to boost natural gas supplies. Gas will only serve as a bridging fuel, and might last two or three decades.

2) The government should implement a "carbon penalty," not in the form of a carbon tax, but rather a carbon trading system, a cap-and-trade regime. He suggests a delayed start and low starting costs that would rise over time, giving industry a clear timeline so it can plan to make the needed transition to non-carbon energy sources. Along with the carbon penalty, a well-funded R&D program would be needed to develop coal gasification and carbon sequestration. Roberts sees this as politically necessary in order to coopt the powerful coal industry, which could otherwise block the needed changes.

3) Finally, the government needs to launch an all-out drive to reduce Americans' high consumption of oil and energy. Raising auto fuel efficiency is the obvious place to start, and does not have to be based on radical new designs, at least not at first. The details of Roberts's proposal takes into account the fierce resistance of the automobile industry, and is based on incentives, just as with the coal industry.

All of these steps are just part of a bridging strategy to a renewable energy economy. Roberts doesn't do justice to all of these possibilities, but presents fascinating glimpses into research on hydrogen, fuel cells, and solar energy, particularly the advances in solar that have been made in Germany. It is true that he neglects the promise of biofuels -- he mentions the category, but doesn't devote any space to it.

Fossil fuels are on the way out, whether we like it or not -- they are not renewable, and so once extracted in a frighteningly short few years, that's it. For more on renewable energy, including solar, wind and biomass fuels, see Hermann Scheer's The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future (see my review), Howard Geller's Energy Revolution: Policies For A Sustainable Future (see my review), and Joseph Romm's The Hype About Hydrogen.

My THE CLEAN/RENEWABLE ENERGY REVOLUTION list has many more books on this subject.

While the professional reviewers have given Robert's book only the highest of praise, (The New York Review of Books calls it "the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications") several reader-reviewers have faulted Roberts for not being an economist. As someone who had to endure a good deal of economics while earning my MBA, I can assure you, these unnamed, un-credentialed "reviewers" aren't economists either.
They all seem to have the same complaint: that Roberts doesn't understand economics because he doesn't believe the law of supply and demand will deliver us smoothly from our energy dilemma. Well, no one else who's taken more than freshman Economics 101 thinks supply/demand functions in that simplistic way either. Sure, the supply/demand dynamic is at work, but markets left to their own devices are quite capable of dragging us through shortages, depressions, environmental disasters, and even wars on their way to new equilibrium. Roberts doesn't fail to understand supply and demand. On the contrary, he sees it quite clearly, with all its real world complexity and danger, and helps the lay reader to see it as well. I have to wonder if these "reviewers" even finished the book.
The End Of Oil is written not by an economist (thank heavens!) but by a respected journalist who spent years interviewing economists and a myriad other energy experts and players. Roberts has done what few economists could have; written an accessible, readable, but comprehensive book that could get the American public thinking constructively about our energy strategy (or lack thereof).
In this country, we like to think the real power lies with the people, and I believe it does, but only when we can be bothered to exercise it. We must first recognize and understand an issue before we've any chance of voting wisely, whether with ballots or our wallets. Reading this book is an enjoyable, interesting first step.

Let me be as concise as Roberts is comprehensive: this is best book on the looming energy crisis that I have read, and I have read half a dozen.

It's the best because it is the most thorough and the most readable. It is also very well researched and demonstrates the kind of understanding of a large and complex subject that inspires confidence.

So why do we have some negative reviews? It's hard to say since most of them are as vacuous as Roberts is detailed, but my guess is that some reviewers are offended because Roberts lays the blame for our energy problems on the politicians, in particular on the politicians currently in power, and he minces no words. To wit: "If American energy politics has always been dysfunctional, a new standard may have been set with the election of George W. Bush. The Texas Republican floated into office on a wave of campaign contributions from the energy and auto industries ($2.4 million from carmakers alone), and proceeded to assemble a White House that was closely aligned with both industries." (p. 298)

I also noticed that one reviewer thinks that Roberts doesn't realize that hydrogen is essentially a storage medium. One has only to read the book to see that Roberts has a commanding understanding of the so-called hydrogen economy based on the fuel cell, and a firm grasp of the problems involved in getting there.

Roberts touts renewables and anything that limits the amount of carbon that goes into the atmosphere. This does not set well with the fossil fuel industry, especially with the powers that be in Vice-President Cheney's home state of Wyoming where the coal reserves are enormous. He also touts conservation and shows how following the administration of Jimmy Carter it became something of a dirty word, so much so that now it is better to speak of energy efficiency than to actually tell people they ought to conserve, or heaven forbid, put on cardigan sweaters as Carter did. To me the most remarkable chapter in the book is the one on conservation and energy efficiency, Chapter 9 "Less is More." Can you imagine how such a statement as "Less is More" would appear to a conference of Texas oil men? You might as well be a vegan at the barbeque.

Roberts estimates that "if efficiency were approached not simply as an afterthought but as a core element in industrial design" the total savings would be enormous. "[R]eengineering the entire car concept around fuel efficiency...could yield gasoline-powered cars that get not just forty miles per gallon but sixty miles per gallon or even eighty miles per gallon... Introducing vehicles like this on a global scale would save as much oil as is produced by all the members of OPEC combined..." (pp. 227-228)

Why hasn't that been done? The reason is complex, and a good way to appreciate the forces working against conservation and efficiency is to read this book. Roberts spent a lot of time and energy finding out why we are in the fix we're in, and he does an outstanding job of explaining it to the general reader.

But, strange to say, after reading this book I am not as pessimistic as I once was. I think we are going to solve our energy problems through the combination of existing energy sources, oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar and other fringe renewables, and especially through conservation and a more efficient use of the energy we have. (By the way, Roberts' discussion of natural gas and how it is coming heavily to market and why right now, is very interesting.) As any astute economist knows, a penny saved is better than a penny earned (if only because of taxes!), so it is true that energy not wasted is cheaper and more reliable than energy that we have to get from OPEC.

There is a slight danger however of an incredibly horrendous downside in this brave new world that I hope will be there for my grandchildren. If we continue to go hog wild with fossil fuels, especially if China, the US and the rest of the world indiscriminately burn coal to fire our economies, we may put so much CO2 into the air that we will not be able to stop a runaway green house effect. That danger is worse than a nuclear winter: think of Venus where lead melts on the surface on the planet. That could happen here, and we could get beyond the point of no return without realizing it.

That danger alone is reason enough to work as diligently as possible to find ways to avoid using fossil fuels, but if we must, pay the cost to "scrub" them and dispose of the carbon without letting it get into the air. Roberts gives a good idea of the problems involved in doing this and where the technology and--more importantly--where the mentality of our leaders is on this subject.

Ignore the nay-sayers. This is an outstanding book.

As someone who has taught courses on global energy use and the environment for more than 20 years, I have read a great many books on the linkages between energy, economics, environment, and politics. Usually such books suffer from either an obvious bias, an excess of technical jargon (especially books by economists), or a selective treatment of the subject (e.g., focusing on the promise of solar energy while ignoring prospects for new technology for coal). This book comes closest to balancing all of the topics critical to understanding the global energy situation, and given recent events in the middle east, could not have come out at a better time. I found particularly valuable the concise and lucid treatments of the status of oil supplies (distinguishing the end of the low cost era from plentiful but much more expensive sources), the science of climate change and its relationship to energy policy, the importance of growing demand in China for cars and other energy intensive products, and the prospects for alternatives to fossil fuels including the dream of the hydrogen economy. All topics are up-to-date and well referenced, and the credibility of the book is greatly enhanced by interviews with leading experts. This book is appropriate for students with widely diverse backgrounds and should find a large audience.

Paul Roberts is a great writer, having authored many successful books about important subjects, such as the timber industry, the auto industry, and the Florida Everglades. Like his other works, 'The End of Oil', is eloquently written for the non specialist. In it, he carefully researches and delves into most of the major issues associated with energy -- oil and gas supplies, distribution, processing, uses, politics, economics, renewables, etc. Clearly, his goal is to awaken America to the urgency of doing something to avoid what otherwise is likely to be a chaotic economic upheaval as we pass Peak Oil, probably just four years from now. For this purpose the book is excellent, though Heinberg's is better.

However, I came at it from the perspective of a physicist who has spent 25 years involved in various sustainable energy issues, and for me the book was quite disappointing. Roberts' in-depth understanding of all the issues about which he writes is limited. As a result, there are a huge number of minor technical errors throughout the book that are at best distracting and at worst seriously misleading. For a much more detailed and accurate discussion of most major aspects of energy, see 'Energy at the Crossroads' by Smil, though Smil too has serious limitations on the subject of renewables and advanced technology. Roberts' treatment of oil resources is decidedly inferior to the definitive work on petroleum resources by Campbell, 'The Coming Oil Crisis'. (And you don't even have to buy Campbell's book. Just go to the ASPO web site and download his last 20 newsletters.)

Roberts also does poorly when he tries to evaluate future energy options -- wind, biofuels, solar, and hydrogen. Of course, it's hard to be too critical, as there has been a lot of junk science published on these subjects (much of it even coming from government sources) and Roberts is not qualified to separate the wheat from the chaff. The worst chapter by far is Chapter 3, which essentially is an advertisement for Ballard's hydrogen fuel cells. This chapter is full of garbage from start to finish, though it probably contains enough real science to fool the general reader. For a scientifically sound, expert perspective here, see 'The Hype About Hydrogen' by Dr. Joe Romm or my 'Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles'. On this subject, Romm, Smil, and Roberts each have very different views, and here it seems clear that Romm is on the right track. (The recent study by the National Academy of Sciences is on his side, and that should mean something.)

Roberts' review of wind and solar in Chapter 13 also leaves a lot to be desired, though most of the information presented on these subjects (except when it comes to hydrogen energy storage to address intermittency) is sound. However, he gives the distinct impression in several places he's already decided to be negative toward wind energy simply because the wind turbines must be produced by big industry to be competitive. He apparently fails to appreciate that the same applies to solar and especially to fuel cells. But the biggest shortcoming in this chapter is his non-treatment of advanced biofuels -- such as cellulosic ethanol, algal biodiesel, and methanol and biodiesel from waste and switchgrass.

So, I have to commend Roberts for doing a good job (for an outsider and non-expert) of presenting a lot of useful information on energy issues; but for those interested in real substance devoid of slanted hype, I'd recommend turning to the real experts, like Campbell, Romm, and Smil, who also are excellent writers. Of course, you may not want to read three long books, two of which (those by Campbell and Smil) are rather heavy. In that case, you might want to read the first third and the last quarter of 'Out of Gas', by Goodstein (the central portion of his book is off topic and boring) to get a brief and scientifically sound introduction to the subject of Peak Oil. For a sound summary of future automotive fuels, I recommend 'Fuels for Tomorrow's Vehicles'. -- F. David Doty, PhD, engineering physicist.

Roberts' book is the first time I've encountered someone putting all the pieces of the puzzle together. Every day we read disparate articles about higher oil prices, Shell's restatement of its dwindling oil reserves, global warming, the booming economies of China and India, the war in Iraq, the sputtering US economic recovery, auto fuel efficiency standards, the dangers of building liquid natural gas depots, proposed drilling in ANWR, etc., etc.

This was the first book I've read that pulls all these related phenomena together into a coherent whole. Given that these are the trends and issues driving world events, I found it extremely valuable to step back and begin to see the broader patterns that are driving the day-to-day news.

Although the number of "alarmist" publications about energy and climate fill the shelves, this book doesn't fit that category. Roberts, although clearly concerned about energy consumption and the capacity to meet it, thinks demand can be met. That won't be achieved without some revision in outlook and actions. In this carefully structured and comprehensive study, readers will gain a firm grasp on the issues involved in making the transition from oil to alternative energy. It won't be cheap or painless, but it can be done, he proposes in this well-written account. You need only be prepared to take some first steps. The very first step is to read this book to overcome "energy illiteracy".

Changing the energy basis of a society isn't a novelty of the "modern" world, Roberts suggests. Humanity has shifted from wood fuel to coal, and from coal to petrochemicals. There was resistance in each case, because people cling to the known. Woodstoves might burn coal, but oil-fired systems are a major shift in technology. So, too, Roberts argues, will (be?) the replacements for oil furnaces or petrol burning autos, whether using natural gas, or hydrogen fuel cells. This approach enables the author to address both the existing patterns of energy extraction and use as well as the options facing us in making substitutions. He carefully examines the technology and economics of the various alternative energy supply methods. Hydrogen fuel cells are given a full hearing, with an account of Geoffrey Ballard's attempt to launch a successful production firm. Ballard didn't quite succeed, but the potential remains available. Roberts also examines solar panels and wind power for electricity generation. In Europe, of course, wind power is a major factor and growing rapidly. In Roberts' eyes, however, his own nation is less sympathetic over wind power. How much this is due to personal choice and how much to energy industry negative propaganda remains unclear. The energy lobbyists, as the author notes, have not been idle. Investment in coal and oil is too great to overturn readily.

Roberts squarely addresses the economic issues of new energy forms . If society is to endure a transition to wind, hydrogen or natural gas power, what will be the costs? "Consider the scale of the task", he says, noting that the conveyors and users of the primary fuels, coal and oil, have over ten trillion [US] dollars tied up in equipment. The transformation of such an immense investment, particularly in unproven technologies is a "colossal" enterprise, not entered lightly. He stresses, however, that such cost isn't sufficient excuse to delay or attempt to refute the need for it. The energy transformation must be made, partly because the world is running out of oil, and cannot afford to replace it with more severe polluters such as coal. The changeover must be undertaken, but it must be done with known technologies until the riskier ones are considered proven.

The cost of transition must also factor in the true cost of the fuels in use. The external costs of petroleum for example, are rarely calculated. Referring to a study by Joan Ogden, Roberts explains how real costs of using petrol actually make the hydrogen fuel cell a price competitive technology. Such calculations should lead to greater investment in alternative technologies. Roberts argues further that it will be the United States that will inevitably take the lead in the process, both in technology and investment. Citing changes in attitudes and policy resulting from the "Oil Embargo" of the 1970s, he suggests that these be reviewed and expanded to achieve the first steps in the transition to new energy forms. It is the US, as the greatest polluter and the greatest innovator, which must take the lead in the change. The energy purchasing power and world marketing skills of the US makes it the most likely promoter of the change. US-based technology is best suited to bringing higher energy levels to developing nations, while not condemning them to high pollution generation.

Roberts has challenged a large segment of his own population with this book. He notes that consumers are being confronted with need for change now, and they must ready themselves for it. A new age requires innovative thinking and changing some long-held views. The author wants that process to be as painless as possible. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

From the bitter geopolitics of climate to the very real disruption that will result from any drastic (but ultimately inevitable) change in the global energy economy, Paul Roberts covers the scary future we face without resorting to hyperbole or overpoliticization. And he pulls it all off by using the tools of old-school journalism: Facts and clean writing.

This isn't a book for oil or policy experts. It's a book for the general public: That's you, and it's me, and it's the Hummer-driving dude down the street who better be ready to pay dearly at the pump. I always worry that when a really important environmental policy book comes out, it will find a home collecting dust on the bookshelves because it's too dense to enjoy. Thankfully, this book has what it takes to avoid that fate. It is envigorating, disturbing, and thorough without being dull. If, as Roberts asserts, there is a "bridge economy" that must be built to wean us from our petroleum habit, this book is surely a good cornerstone to get us started.

We've been hearing for a while that we might be close to running out of oil. Roberts explains that while there will probably always be oil in the ground we will soon be near the end of the "easy" oil, and production is already starting to slow. This is a scary concept. What makes this book fascinating is the way Roberts looks at all the alternatives, assessing them and not getting all worked up about one over another.

If we're going to move on from oil, we'll have to use a combination of alternatives, and thanks to this book I know what they are and how each works. This is a great, interesting read and I recommend it highly.

This is good book and is well researched. It gives balanced exposition to both the optimists and pessimists in their takes on oil depletion and the peak oil phenomenon. I already believe that the pessimists are right - our civilization is in for a very rough ride that will begin in the very near future. So, I think the balance Roberts provides does not give the impending crisis the gravity it deserves. The author is being a good journalist by presenting the alternative energy possibilities as potential ways to soften the blow of an oil crunch, but I think alarm bells should be going off. Kunstler's The Long Emergency does a better job of scaring the hell out of you - and rightly so.