Estimating Terrorism Risk [Paperback]

Terrence K. Kelly (Author), RAND Corporation (Author), Andrew R. Morral (Author), Jamison Jo Medby (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0833038346 | ISBN-13: 978-0833038340 | Publication Date: January 6, 2006 | Edition: 1

The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.

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This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.

Product Details

• Paperback: 72 pages
• Publisher: Rand Publishing; 1 edition (January 6, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0833038346
• ISBN-13: 978-0833038340
• Product Dimensions: 8.8 x 5.9 x 0.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,559,557 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Still Thinking About the Unthinkable, May 23, 2008

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Retired Reader (New Mexico) - See all my reviews

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This review is from: Estimating Terrorism Risk (Paperback)

Since the tragic events of 9/11, a myth has developed that if just the right mixture of counter terrorism strategies can be found, the U.S. can be ensured against another terrorist attack on its soil. Although this is complete nonsense, it is a myth that is embraced by politicians of every stripe and, more frightening, by many in the federal government.
As a result, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continues to try to protect everywhere and everyone and so succeeds in not protecting anything. More seriously DHS is unable to allocate funds for emergency responses in the most vulnerable and likely terrorist targets. Indeed because it subscribes to the myth that the U.S. can be made invulnerable to terrorist attacks it does not appear to particularly interested in rational target identification, risk assessments, or creating resilience in those targets. This attitude is both foolish and dangerous.
The Rand Corporation created an aptly named unit: the Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy (CTRMP) which has a number of functions, but in this monograph specifically attempts to advise DHS on how to first distinguish between more and less vulnerable urban targets and how to use probability theorems to assess risks to the most vulnerable targets. The CTRMP basis this monograph on the assumption that large urban areas will constitute on set of obvious terrorist targets. It is clear however that variances of the same methodology of target identification and risk assessment can be applied to other potential targets as well (i.e. thermal and hydro-electric power plants, petroleum refineries etc.). So if DHS would surprise everybody and actually adopt the CTRMP proposal would this really solve at least one thorny counter-terrorism issue? Well no it would not. There is no substitute rational thought and real knowledge of the types of terrorist enemies that the U.S. is threatened by and there is no evidence that DHS is particularly interested in knowing its terrorist enemies or thinking rationally about the threats those enemies pose.
This monograph is not an enjoyable read, but it is an important one. This reviewer would suggest reading it with Stephan Flynn's book "America the Vulnerable" ([...]) which goes into considerably more detail about the need to be able to have the resiliency to recover quickly from what must be inevitable terrorist attacks as well as natural disasters.