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"…his book is well written and contains a great deal of information that is of value…." (The Technical Analyst, May/June 2007)
As an approach to research, technical analysis has suffered because it is a "discipline" practiced without discipline. In order for technical analysis to deliver useful knowledge that can be applied to trading, it must evolve into a rigorous observational science.
Over the past two decades, numerous articles in respected academic journals have approached technical analysis in a scientifically rigorous and intellectually honest manner, and now, Evidence-Based Technical Analysis looks to continue down this path. Organized into two parts, this valuable resource first establishes the methodological, philosophical, and statistical foundations of evidenced-based technical analysis (EBTA), and then demonstrates this approach—by using twenty-five years of historical data to test 6,400 binary buy/sell rules on the S&P 500.
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout these pages, expert David Aronson details this new type of technical analysis that—unlike traditional technical analysis—is restricted to objective rules, whose historical profitability can be quantified and scrutinized.
Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Evidence-Based Technical Analysis provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining. Experimental results presented in the book will show you that data mining—a process in which many rules are back-tested and the best performing rules are selected—is an effective procedure for discovering useful rules/signals. However, since the historical performance of the rules/signals discovered by data mining are upwardly biased, new statistical tests are required to make reasonable inferences about future profitability. Two such tests, one of which has never been discussed anywhere heretofore, are described and illustrated.
If you want to use technical analysis to navigate today's markets, you must first abandon the subjective, interpretive methods traditionally associated with this discipline, and embrace an approach that is scientifically and statistically valid. Grounded in objective observation and statistical inference, EBTA is the approach to technical analysis you need to succeed in your trading endeavors.See all Editorial Reviews
A definitive guide in statistical tests for trading systems. To much space wasted in chapters 2 to 4 explaining the roots of logical thinking, this is not what a trader is... Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer
The key learning I took from this book was it will certainly shed light on the dubious nature of technical analysis. Read morePublished 3 months ago by Robert Kirk
This book more than outweighs its verbosity with a series of sound scientific methodologies. It debunks a number of unproven beliefs and even "superstitions" that tend to... Read morePublished 7 months ago by Vahrokh Vain
The book gave an excellent analysis of technical trading and statistics, and exactly how he set up the tests of several thousand trading systems, all invented for the... Read morePublished 14 months ago by Harvey
I traded futures for 8 years. I can tell you I studied trading in options, futures and stocks, and forex night and day and I learned a lot along the way. Read morePublished 17 months ago by trader Mike
The great stuff in this book concerns subjective technical analysis (TA): chart patterns like pennants and head and shoulders, Elliott Wave, and so on. Read morePublished 21 months ago by TraderF
Not only is this a great introduction to technical analysis, but also is one of the best articulated statistics book out there. Read morePublished 23 months ago by Bobby Kian