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Exchange Rate Determination: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate Forecasting (McGraw-Hill Library of Investment and Finance) Hardcover – May 19, 2003

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Product Details

  • Series: McGraw-Hill Library of Investment and Finance
  • Hardcover: 304 pages
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill; 1 edition (May 19, 2003)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0071415017
  • ISBN-13: 978-0071415019
  • Product Dimensions: 7.6 x 0.8 x 9.1 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #617,183 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

From the Back Cover

Irwin Library of Investment and Finance

An Examination of Today's Major Exchange-Rate Forecasting Models and Tools--and When to Use Each for Maximum Efficacy and Accuracy

Increased global trade and cross-border interaction have redefined the worldwide business arena. At the same time, the ability to accurately forecast and determine exchange rates has come to dictate the terms of success for companies conducting business in that arena.

Exchange-Rate Determination explores today's most popular models and strategies for forecasting exchange rates, and reveals the strengths, weaknesses, and appropriate applications of each. Covering short-, medium-, and long-run time frames, this essential combination of reference and workbook discusses:

  • Potential risks and rewards of short-term forecasting approaches
  • Methods for using technical analysis for currency forecasting
  • The importance of financial flows in the determination of exchange rates

Models and techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates are as numerous as they are contradictory. Yet getting the right exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Let Exchange-Rate Determination introduce you to today's most effective forecasting tools and, just as important, show you when to use those tools for maximum accuracy, impact, and profit.

"Having endeavored to forecast exchange rates for more than half a century, I have understandably developed significant humility about my ability in this area..."--Alan Greenspan

"Perhaps all that one can say after reviewing all the different approaches to exchange-rate determination is that no single approach has a monopoly on being right all of the time."--From the introduction

The fact that accurate exchange-rate forecasting is frustrating and difficult does not make it any less vital. Exchange-Rate Determination examines the wide array of methods and approaches that institutional investors, global banks and corporations, and others involved in international finance use to forecast foreign exchange rates. This first-of-its-kind book summarizes each in an easy-to-read, user-friendly format, and provides historical data on why and in which situations each has proven to be most accurate and profitable.

Written by the leader of the number-one-ranked foreign exchange rate research team in the world, this exhaustively researched yet fluid and reader-friendly book covers tools and methodologies used to forecast exchange rates over different timeframes including:

  • Short-Run--Tools examined include moving-average trend-following trading rules, sentiment and positioning surveys, FX dealer customer-flow data, and more
  • Medium-Run--Macroeconomic indicators examined include trend in real interest rate differentials, current and capital account balances, relative monetary and fiscal policies, and more
  • Long-run--Forces that give rise to long-term cycles are discussed, including relative productivity growth; trends in a country's terms of trade, savings, and investment; and more

The overriding rule of forecasting exchange rates is that, in the end, no overriding rules exist. Still, fund managers and financial professionals must, on a daily basis, make major decisions based on exchange-rate variables and variations. Exchange-Rate Determination gives practitioners the tools and techniques for understanding and acting upon the science and, just as frequently, the art of successful FX management. Combining theory and application in a workbook-like setting, it is exhaustive in its coverage of today's most market-tested models and strategies--and provides investors and money managers with a firm foundation for applying those strategies in the high pressure, high-stakes arena of exchange rate forecasting.

About the Author

Michael R. Rosenberg is managing director and head of global foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank. His articles regularly appear in Institutional Investor, Global Investor,and other top financial publications.

Customer Reviews

3.8 out of 5 stars
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By John Cairns on December 27, 2007
Format: Hardcover
An excellent book for the non-expert, going through all the various ways of looking at and forecasting exchange rates. Simple and easy to read and a quick reference guide for all os us. By non-expert I mean someone with an economics background or who works in financial markets but who does not specilise in FX. Complete beginers may need a more basic book with more theory. Specialists may still find it useful but the lack of detail and references can sometimes be frustrating.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Andrii Parkhomenko on February 16, 2009
Format: Hardcover
The book describes key aspects of exchange rate determination and outlines the framework for building a comprehensive exchange rate model. Easily understandable, no complex math. However, the book lacks practical examples of exchange rate modeling.
All in all, if you seriously plan to delve into exchange rate determination but have little practical background, this is a good book to start with.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Alex Turnbull on February 23, 2010
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
I've bought a few books on FX modelling, theory and the like and this hits the sweet spot for explicating how the models work, different motivations for different time frames and the theory behind it. No complex math, no crazy excel/Matlab worked models but a great book for more fundamentally oriented folk (cough) who want to better understand how macro people look at things and how they approach investing. Wish it was on kindle.
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