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"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University
"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting. Tetlock also offers a unique example of even-handed social science. This may be the first book I have seen in which the arguments and objections of opponents are presented with as much care as the author's own position."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University
The book opens with a full throated defense of the American invasion of Iraq and how doves who pine for a counterfactual reality where Saddam is still in power discount the... Read morePublished 1 month ago by d
This books information is fascinating and challenging to read and absorb.Published 5 months ago by nick s
Hard to handle the statistical sections but the basic message is fascinating. Go Foxes.Published 14 months ago by harrison young
Brilliant research written up in a clear fashion. Important work that is quoted widely. Important implications for society and our politicsPublished 21 months ago by David McKay
We all think about the world and everything else in terms of our mental models. This has its own limitations, but used properly we will still be able to understand and predict the... Read morePublished 21 months ago by Vinayagamoorthy
This book is excellent at demonstrating that *expertise* should be the goal of education, and not "critical thinking". Read morePublished on October 8, 2013 by W Stephens
Tis hard to say any thing bad about Dr. Tetlock's work here. This is proving to be an excellence resource when looking at so called "experts" and bias. Read morePublished on September 22, 2013 by Phillip F. Crenshaw