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"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting. Tetlock also offers a unique example of even-handed social science. This may be the first book I have seen in which the arguments and objections of opponents are presented with as much care as the author's own position."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, recipient of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic sciences
"This book is a major contribution to our thinking about political judgment. Philip Tetlock formulates coding rules by which to categorize the observations of individuals, and arrives at several interesting hypotheses. He lays out the many strategies that experts use to avoid learning from surprising real-world events."--Deborah W. Larson, University of California, Los Angeles
"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University
"This book is just what one would expect from America's most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock's fascinating arguments."--Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Brilliant research written up in a clear fashion.
Tetlock helps the non-experts to know more about what the experts know, how they know it, and how much good it does them in making predictions.
Because it makes it impossible to avoid these conclusions, I gave this book five stars; this is very important stuff.
Brilliant research written up in a clear fashion. Important work that is quoted widely. Important implications for society and our politicsPublished 6 months ago by David McKay
We all think about the world and everything else in terms of our mental models. This has its own limitations, but used properly we will still be able to understand and predict the... Read morePublished 6 months ago by Vinayagamoorthy
My son requested this for Christmas and seems satisfied with it, although he hasn't read it all. The book did arrive promptly and in good condition.Published 7 months ago by Mary Ann Flack
This book is excellent at demonstrating that *expertise* should be the goal of education, and not "critical thinking". Read morePublished 10 months ago by W Stephens
Tis hard to say any thing bad about Dr. Tetlock's work here. This is proving to be an excellence resource when looking at so called "experts" and bias. Read morePublished 11 months ago by Phillip F. Crenshaw
The author goes to great lengths (perhaps too great) to consider alternatives conclusions to the ones he makes. Read morePublished 17 months ago by Leo T. Hogan
This is a significant contribution to our understanding of the difficulties of public policy forecasting. Read morePublished 20 months ago by Amazon Customer
Great research that shows that narrow-minded blowhards are wrong more often than not, and more often than non experts. Read morePublished 20 months ago by Ranty
"Expert political judgment" -- it sounds like an oxymoron, but only because it is. Philip E. Tetlock's groundbreaking research shows that experts are no better than the rest of us... Read morePublished 21 months ago by Joseph Colannino