Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft [Kindle Edition]

Jonathan Bales (Author)

Book Description

"Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft" is 126 pages of in-depth fantasy football draft strategy. The aim of the book is to provide advanced material for experienced fantasy football owners and "bottom line" analysis for novices. The book is not a collection of player rankings or projections, but rather an assessment of various draft strategies and fantasy football tenants. It will provide a solid foundation from which you can improve as an owner to dominate your draft.

          - Jonathan Bales, Author

• Table of Contents

Preface

Chapter 1:  The Most In-Depth Introduction You'll Ever Read

• How to use scarcity at a position
  to acquire maximum value
• How to use your opponents' beliefs
  to get the best players
• Why predictability is more
  important than projected points

Chapter 2: Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless

• Why you should start a nearly
  identical lineup each week
• How to create tiered rankings that
  implement players' risk
• When and how to take gambles
  during your draft

Chapter 3: Season-to-Season Consistency:
Why It Matters and How to Use it

• How stats like rushing, receiving,
  and passing yards/touchdowns translate from one season to another
• Why defenses and kickers are
  almost entirely unpredictable
• Why a quarterback or top-tier
  running back should be your first-round selection
• Why tight ends are the most
  consistent players in fantasy football

Chapter 4: Tier-ing Up: How to Create
Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings

• A basic formula to create
  projections
• How to make tiers in your rankings
• Why you should almost never take
  the best player available on your board (for real)
• Why drafting near the end of a
  round is advantageous

Chapter 5: More on Position Scarcity

• Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob
  Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination
• Why you can grab quality wide
  receivers late

Chapter 6: Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs

• How to identify undervalued
  players
• Why running backs with lots of
  carries aren't really being overworked or overvalued
• How to predict running backs' yards-per-carry

Chapter 7: Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy
Football

• How fantasy football is incredibly
  similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)
• Why a player's value can be
  different for different teams
• How to "buy low" and "sell high"
  during your draft
• How to utilize public perception
• Why your focus shouldn't be
  securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather "losing" the
  least

Chapter 8: The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections

• Specific formulas to project
  player stats
• How to factor league requirements
  into your rankings
• Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and
  Steve Smith
• How to create player power ratings
  and turn them into the ultimate big board

Chapter 9: Building the Ideal Fantasy Football Players

• Breaking down the ideal
  characteristics for QB, RB, WR, and TE
• How to use measurables to project
  players, especially rookies
• Why speed matters more for running
  backs than receivers

Chapter 10: Don't Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.

• Taking you through two mock drafts
  I completed in March
• Notes on each pick

Chapter 11: Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don't Want You
to Know

• How to project players based on
  age
• Understanding historic rates of
  decline for each position
• How to predict performances using
  "similarity scores"
• Understanding risk and reward

Chapter 12: Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of
the Game

• How to manage your money in weekly
  fantasy football
• Understanding "juice"
• Picking the perfect entry fee size

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Loved it. I've been trying to convince myself to write a book like this for years."

 - Mike Clay, Head of Fantasy at Pro Football Focus 

"What an engrossing read!

  - Lee Kleiner, President of Fantrax

"This is good stuff! It should be received very well by the fantasy public."

  - Mike Krueger, Founder of FF Today

"This book is awesome. I love it. Let me know when it's available. I think it could be a great fit for my audience."

  - Kevin Day, Founder of Fantasy Football Calculator 

"I found it to be very cogent, informative and enjoyable. As a numbers guy myself, I especially enjoyed the numerical analysis. I believe that both seasoned veterans as well as newbies to fantasy football will find your book to be quite helpful as they prepare for their fantasy drafts."

 - Al Lackner, Ask the Commish

From the Author

Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft is the culmination of a lot of hours of fantasy football statistical analysis. In reading the book, you'll be able to benefit from this work; you'll learn why quarterbacks and tight ends are the most consistent fantasy performers, why you should almost never draft the true best player available, how to create projections and rankings, and a whole lot more. 

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• File Size: 937 KB
• Print Length: 96 pages
• Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited
• Sold by: Amazon Digital Services, Inc.
• Language: English
• ASIN: B0084DYLV4
• Text-to-Speech: Enabled
• X-Ray: Not Enabled
• Lending: Enabled
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #158,005 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

12 of 12 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Must Read for Beginners and Veterans Alike May 25, 2012

By Dave

Format:Kindle Edition

I'm going to try and keep this short, but it will be tough. While I am no Fantasy Football(FF) expert I do consider myself to be very knowledgable. I put a fair amount of work into my season which started in April after the NFL draft, getting my boards and rankings together. (Yes, I'm a big dork, tell me about it). I've read a number of other publications about FF and they are all pretty crappy. They basically regurgitate the "truthisms" we always hear, "truthisms" that I love because it makes my opponents weaker.

This book stood out because it broke down those "truthisms" and showed why they couldn't be father from the truth. A quick example is that #1 overall pick is the best in the draft. 100% false and this book will explain why, along with many others. Reading this will give anyone an edge in their draft through it's statistical analyzation and formulas to prepare a strong draft board. Does that sound too confusing? It's not because the author has broken every step down in depth to make even the most mathematically challenged people like me understand it. The best part is that these are formulas you can use year after year. Instead of paying a website 30 bucks every year for their rankings you can make your own and you use the same formulas they use. I'm sure anyone who plays auction leagues could agree $9 for Foster in a dynasty league is a lot better than $30 for Foster in a re-draft.

The delicate balance between numbers, opinions, team needs, and position scarcity is well documented in this book and it does a great job in trying to help the reader understand the best way to use these factors to your advantage.

The best compliment I can give is that while I recommend this book to everyone, I really hope none of my league mates get their hands on it. I like having every possible advantage and this is without a doubt one of them.

Of course reading this book won't guarantee you will win your league but I can promise you if you spend the $9 it will help prepare you to have the best possible draft you can.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Best Fantasy Football Book Ever August 30, 2012

By Harold B. Goldstine

Format:Kindle Edition

Did you know that Tight Ends are the most likely to repeat last year's success, followed by QBs, followed by RBs, followed by WRs?

Neither did I.

Jonathan Bales sets himself apart from the rest of fantasy football writers in that he does actual analysis. He actually analyzes statistics using linear regression, and finds how reliable last year's stats are -- as far as I know, nobody else does this.

Obviously he does more than this: Bales also pays close attention to OTAs, training camp, preseason etc. Using objective statistical techniques combined with close personal observation (changes in coaching staff, playbooks, etc.), Bales offers strategy and insight that is second to none.

Furthermore, at least in my personal experience, after having bought his rankings cheat-sheet for all of $3, he has generously answered my elaborate questions and given me personal advice after I shared the results of my draft with him via e-mail.

For anyone who has ever studied even basic statistics and believed that what they have studied was at least partially less than complete BS, you will find that Jonathan Bales offers legitimate, mathematical reasoning to his insight that you simply won't find anywhere else in the fantasy football world.

Having utilized his strategies, ways of looking at fantasy football, and his fantasy football cheat sheets (which are conveniently done in tiers), I feel as confident as I ever have in my rosters this year.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Wish I read this YEARS ago August 11, 2012

By JDeWilkins

Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase

I am usually too busy to do more than one league this year, but for some reason decided to take on the task of doing 3 leagues. I had this feeling that the tired old $8 magazine and cheat sheets weren't going to cut it this year. For the record I have been playing Fantasy Football for 19 years, so I am no rookie and I have won championships and have failed miserably in leagues also. So for a guy who has played for 19 years to walk away from this read revved up and excited to use these strategies is saying something. Its an easy read and Jonathan makes some very compelling arguments as to why what he is saying makes sense and can back it up. The jist of the book is to get you to understand that Fantasy Football is like the stock market, draft players based on value and get them at the right price. It also has you factor in risk in who you are picking and determining if the risk is worth the reward and that all is factored in to when you drafted them. Andre Johnson in the 2nd round? BAD. Andre Johnson in the 5th? GREAT. But the biggest key for me is truly looking at "tiering" your players. See the drop offs, look at projections and to hell with the best player available strategy. The way I see it, you can buy this ebook for $5.99 and his projections sheets on his site using his math but using your scoring system for $2.99 and spend about what you would spend on a dated fantasy football magazine that came out in May that is a bunch of folks no more qualified than I am grasping at straws and telling you the same stuff year after year. Pull the trigger on this now and go into your draft knowing you did the right thing and will have a weekly powerhouse with consistent performance instead of doing the sit em start em strategy. 2 Thumbs way up!

More About the Author

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People series. He's a regular contributor to the New York Times, where he posts both "real" and fantasy football content, as well as NBC, Dallas Morning News, RotoWire, FF Today, and rotoViz. He was a finalist for the FSWA's Fantasy Football Series of the Year award in 2012.