Customer Reviews

Five Regions of the Future: Preparing Your Business for Tomorrow's Technology Revolution

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Those who have already read Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future, already know that Barker is one of the most insightful and eloquent business thinkers in our time. Years ago, Peter Drucker suggested that one of the greatest challenges for any organization is to manage the consequences and implications of a future which has already occurred. I agree. However, I also agree with Barker that it is possible to recognize what he calls a "paradigm shift": a major change of the rules and regulations that establish or define boundaries, a change which suggests that new behavior will be required within those redefined boundaries.

One of the most important concepts in Paradigms is what Barker calls "paradigm pliancy": "the purposeful seeking out of new ways of doing things. It is an active behavior in which you challenge your paradigms [ie the status quo, assumptions and premises] by asking the Paradigm Shift Question: What do I believe is impossible to do in my field, but if it could be done, would fundamentally change my business?" This is a question which must be asked...and then answered correctly, especially given the fact that competitors may be doing so now or will do so in the near future. I again recall Wayne Gretzky's response when asked to explain his great success playing hockey: "Everyone knows where the puck is. I see where it will be." Barker does a brilliant job of explaining both how to "change the rules of the game" or at least recognize when such change is underway and then respond to it effectively.

In Five Regions of the Future which Barker co-authored with Scott Erickson, the focus is on "a geography of technology so that we can better map our future. Just like locating our towns and cities on a physical map of the world, we need to locate, on some kind of conceptual map, the blizzard of new products and processes that are appearing [and will continue to appear] so we can better understand this `brave new world' of technology." The reference to a "conceptual map" is especially appropriate because Barker and Erickson are introducing what I view as a new business discipline: cartology of paradynamic transformation. (Yes, I realize that it's a bit of a mouthful but, at this moment, I can't come up with anything better.) I am curious to know what would happen if senior managers in an organization were to read this book in combination with Kaplan and Norton's Book Strategy Maps in which they explain how to "convert intangible assets into tangible outcomes," and then formulated a game plan based on the core principles in each of the two books.

Barker and Erickson carefully organize their material within six chapters as they provide and explain what they characterize as "a new paradigm for understanding the development of all technology." I was especially interested in their observation that "the world is witnessing the birth of technological ecosystems constructed of human-made elements instead of biological elements." They identify five TechnEcologies which have evolved during the past 100 years since the advent of the mass production of automobiles and steel. What are TechnEcologies? They are "the inevitable result of accumulating discoveries, inventions, and innovations of human beings." Each is a complex ecosystem of technology made up of the tools and techniques invented by humans "that interact in both mutualistic and competitive manners to increase the variety of technologies and the complexity of interaction."

According to Barker and Erickson, they can place almost any example of technology into one of the five regions of the future once they know the technology's dominant purpose or function. The nature of each of the five is revealed by the answers to these four value questions:

1. What is the region's attitude toward material wealth?
2. What is the region's view of science and technology?
3. How does the region view its relationship with nature?
4. Finally, what is the region's view of work and leisure?

If I understand their primary objective (and I may not), Barker and Erickson see themselves as 21st explorers who are attempting to define the future of technology just as Lewis and Clark once set out to define the vast and uncertain land west of the Mississippi River. "In the twenty-first century, we need a more sophisticated way to catalog and describe our technology. We think the five regions offer that. As citizens of this new world, we all need to begin to think more systematically. The five regions methodology invites that. Our technologies are bigger than our nations. We need to understand the consequences of that."

Barker and Erickson conclude with a passage from a poem which William Blake wrote 200 years ago. His metaphor for technology was the tiger "burning bright/In the forests of the night." Now, another quite different "tiger" burns even brighter. Here's mankind's challenge: How to frame its "fearful symmetry"? And what will be the consequences if we don't? In this context, I am reminded of Robert Oppenheimer's reaction when the first atomic bomb was detonated more than 60 years ago. He immediately recalled a line from the Bhagavad Gita (The Song of God): "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds."

Those who share my high regard for this brilliant book are urged to check out Kaplan and Norton's The Strategy-Focused Organization as well as their Strategy Maps. Also two books by Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, and, Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence; and finally, for now, Frans Johansson's The Medici Effect: Breakthrough Insights at the Intersection of Ideas, Concepts, and Cultures. I truly envy those who have not as yet read any one of them. What an intellectual feast awaits them!

This is a great book. The value of The Five Regions is its ability to segment the potential future applications of technology into five distinct areas, which provides for a great deal of clarity and depth. I found the book's content on technology to be especially relevant and useful. The Five Regions Assessment also allowed me to expand my own cognitive horizon on how I tend to see the various technologies in application, while also expanding my vision into new worlds of application. As always, Barker's observations are intertwined with science and research, thereby opening our eyes and our minds to fascinating possibilities. Indeed, the book also left me intrigued. I had a renewed sense of excitement about the future utilization of technology. All in all, this book is written in true Barker style. It is incredibly captivating yet understandable, stimulating, and well worth reading.

Barker's book provides a radical new way of categorizing technology - something we've been without in the modern age. In addition to giving us a series of frameworks on which we can base our decisions about the direction of our future, he illustrates how our current course in the United States is extremely destructive and ultimately unsustainable.If enough people read this, then perhaps our course can be changed for the better.

However, a disclaimer: Although the book title references business, this book is much more about specific technologies and their socio-environmental implications than any business application.

Still, it is a recommended read for anyone who wants to ensure a comfortable, sustainable future for our species.

As a process futurist, Joel Barker is a very familiar name. His earlier book titled "Paradigms," introduced the word paradigm to a wider audience in the business arena. I highly recommend that book to anyone intereted in understanding the nuances of paradigmic change in organizations.

As a splendid catalog of future technologies, I found this new book by Joel Barker very fascinating in its breadth of scope. The last 2 chapters tilted "Human Tech" and "Conclusion" were the most enlightening for me and worth the price of the entire book. Joe's insightful comments on every page are an added bonus. Although, i am familiar with some of the technologies, Joel Barker's treatment of even the most familiar ones is very precise and insightful. Most of the examples were new to me, though.

I marvel at the way the author brings the five regions together with examples in the last chapter. Author's love for the subject matter shows on every page. Indeed, It is a tour de force of a futuristic imagination, as one reviewer aptly put it. I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in understanding the implications of futuristic technologies.

There is a lot going on in academic and commercial labs that are rather invisible to the ordinary public. The results however have the potential to change our life completely. This book gives a very thorough insight into current developments. And more, it also helps you to imagine how these technologies are being used in the real lives of persons.
We face the unique challenge in the coming years to use new technologies and at the same time take our responsibility towards sustainability of this planet. This books shows a lot of potential in innovative use of materials and processes that makes it possible to make right choices.
Highly recommended for anyone interested in not only new technologies, but also in the impact and actual use.

This is a fascinating, original take on what lies ahead. Rather than project a single future, authors Joel A. Barker and Scott W. Erickson examine existing trends and group them into five regions of technology. They explain each technology, extrapolate the future it might create if it alone shaped the world, and then discuss how these different technological currents might intersect. Barker and Erickson paint their five futures in broad swaths. This allows them to cover a lot of ground and sketch many potential markets and challenges, but it also means that they cover their ground shallowly. Of the five technologies they examine, they are far more solidly grounded in "Super Tech," "Limits Tech" and "Nature Tech" than in "Local Tech" or "Human Tech." They sometimes treat individual and place them in categories their fans might dispute. For example, science fiction author Isaac Asimov was a long-time supporter of population control and of limiting the power of machines, but he is found here in Super Tech rather than Limits Tech. These small nuances should not take away from your enjoyment of this book, which we recommend to managers who want to plan for a flexible, productive future, and to those who enjoy mental experiments and challenges, since, at times, it is simply fun to read.

Futurist Joel Barker often states that it's a "leader's responsibility to take care of the future." If that is to be done, people who are leaders, people who want to be leaders need to be exploring the future as part of their regular responsibilities. If you're not scouting the future, you will face too many "unanticipated consequences" and you'll be slow to act as the future appears quickly in today's world.

In "Five Regions" Joel Barker and Scott Erickson set up a systematic way of looking at the future, a classification system that simplifies the potential of overwhelming information. In addition to the system of "TechnEcologies,' they provide numerous examples of the latest developments in these areas. And in a very enjoyable format, they give examples in the form of letters and e-mail exchanges "from the future."

If you accept the leader's responsibility for the future -- and I don't see how anyone can deny that responsibility, "Five Regions" provides an interesting system for conducting the search -- and a good foundation of examples.

Barker and Erickson have also started a website with additional examples from the five regions. I've already used it to search for additional examples for a "super tech" project.

All of us have a bias when it comes to technology and the future. One of the great strengths of this book is that it makes each reader aware of her or his bias and provides perspective on other dimensions that limit or encourage future technology development. Do we see technology as unbounded . . . or creating new problems that threaten to overwhelm us? Do we see the race with population and pollution as unwinnable . . . or as easily won? Do we look at the giant technologies . . . or do we look for what is small and beautifully efficient? With the expanded view of all these points of view, the wise technologist or executive can choose more promising directions.

I see this book as an applied example of the kind of scenario-based thinking, except as applied to the social forces that influence technology development, that can be so valuable.

If you only read one book about developing technology this year, I recommend this one!

It's hard for most of us to see the positives and negatives about potential technologies and their developments at the same time. We naturally tend to focus on one or a few elements of the potential. With this wonderful book (and the quiz inside), we can graduate to the rounded perspective that we need to make the most of technological potential. With this approach, I predict great things for the people of the world!

I read Five Regions - and it drew me back to re read Joel's other works. It is such a power segmentation of where technology has been lupmed together and Joel's perspective really brings focus back to where our species is heading technologically. Technology has alway been encompassing - now looking at Human Tech, Nature Tech et all - it become galringly obvious there is so much mis understanding of the nature of technology - its hard to discern where the future is headed. Five regions really brought back focus to major areas of innovation for me and my collegues - thank you Joel - it look sliek you are coining new venacualr and creating a new technology lexile again.

Joel has done it again. He has always had an uncanny knack for seeing the future and describing it in ways that help others understand and this book is no exception. Regardless of which "region" view you believe is to be the future, you can not afford to be ignorant of the others. This is a very valuable book for any CEO or exec that plans to be around for the future. Well done Joel, thanks.