22 of 22 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Serendipity "on the other side of complexity", January 18, 2011
This review is from: Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible (Hardcover)
In this book written with John David Mann, Daniel Burrus discusses a skill that uses "the data of your five senses, as well as that intuitive sixth sense we all have that some call a gut feeling or hunch. But flash foresight goes further, because in using it you synthesize those sensory and intuitive faculties and project them forward through the dimensions of time. A flash foresight is a blinding flash of the future obvious. It is an intuitive grasp of the foreseeable future that, once you see it, it reveals hidden opportunities and allows you to solve your biggest problems - before they happen. Flash foresight will allow anyone to both see and shape his or her future."
How valuable would someone be to an organization if she or he mastered that skill? How valuable would a team be if all of its members had mastered that skill? How to do that? Burrus explains the process in his book.
More specifically, he suggests that there are seven "triggers," any one or several of which can produce a flash foresight:
1. Start with Certainty (i.e. identify and verify hard trends)
2. Anticipate (i.e. determine degree of probability of relevant contingencies)
3. Transform (i.e. leverage technology-driven change)
4. Skip what you think is your biggest problem (in fact, it isn't...and never was)
5. Go opposite (e.g. look where no one else does, see what no one else sees, do what no one else does)
6. Redefine and reinvent (i.e. leverage your unique strengths in new and better ways)
7. Direct your future (or have someone else will do it for you)
Zappos offers an excellent example. Its leaders were certain that online sales would continue to increase and that it was probable that the process of purchasing commodities would be more important to the consumer than the products themselves would be. They concluded that the most efficient operations (e.g. order processing) would be driven by high technology and that returns rather than sizing was its biggest problem. They defied conventional wisdom that that selling shoes online could not be profit. Until Zappos, that was true.
As for #6, consider these comments by CEO Tony Hsieh: "We hope that ten years from now, people won't even realize that we started out selling shoes online, and that when you say `Zappos,' they'll think, `Oh, that's the place with the absolute best service.' And that doesn't even have to be limited to being an online experience. We've had customers email us and ask if we would please start an airline or run the IRS."
Years ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes said that he "didn't care a fig about simplicity this side of complexity" but that he would "give his life for simplicity on the other side of complexity." Daniel Burrus would make the same claim for serendipity. I think his Flash Foresight may well prove to be the best business book published in 2011. Is it that good? Yes.
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11 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
The people who read this book will end up with your marketshare, January 19, 2011
This review is from: Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible (Hardcover)
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I read a lot of leadership books and you sometimes have to wade through a lot of mediocre books to get to a jewel. Flash Foresight is definitely a jewel. So good that I have sent it to clients and I will read it again.
This book makes you think in the same manner that the essays in Malcolm Gladwell's "What the Dog Saw" makes you think. More importantly it provides a systematic approach to conquer the challenges addressed in the book.
If I had to pick one phrase from the book that communicates its essence it would be what the author describes as the new golden rule of business "If it can be done, it will be done... If you don't do it, someone else will."
The question that remains unanswered is "are you or your company that someone who will do it?" Will you have and act on the Flash Foresight as he defines it "a blinding flash of the future obvious."
BOOK STRUCTURE
The author does a good job of summarizing the action steps from each chapter allowing the busy executive to quickly gather the content. Even though the summarized actions are well written, reading the entire chapter is still well worth it to get the context. Excellent use of examples from industry and the authors experience with references are provided when appropriate.
The author provides a systematic approach with seven "foresight triggers" and eight "pathways of technological advancement." He develops this approach in a manner that facilitates execution of his process because he judiciously incorporates a common understanding of the terms and premises on which they are built. These include: cyclic change, linear change, soft trends, hard trends, the three digital accelerators, and transformation.
PRACTICAL APPLICATION
In order to gain "Flash Foresight" the author advocates spending an hour each week addressing "What are you certain about? What are the hard trends of your future, versus the soft trends? What are the permanent, linear changes and what are the cyclical changes? How are the three digital accelerators and eight pathways of technology driven transformation going to affect your life and work?...What are the problems you are going to have tomorrow, next week, next month? A few years down the road? What are the problems your kids, your spouse, your employees, your associates, your customers are going to have? Even better, what are the future problems of those people who are not yet your customers but will be if you have solutions to their problems by the time they happen?"
INTERESTING POINTS
Here are a few excerpts that resonated with me.
1. "Either/or" thinking assumes a zero-sum game, in which the pie is fixed size and emerging technologies-or emerging markets-must necessarily threaten the existence of the old. But that's not reality...The principle of "both/and" tells us that the new and the old will continue to coexist side by side.
2. ...one clear dependable strategy for staying ahead of the curve is to create in yourself and in your company or organization a habit of continuously decommoditizing. Anything and everything can become a commodity; and any product or service can be decommoditized. [Yes, he does provide examples]
3. ...there will be no recovery, no going back-only a surge forward into a very different world.
4. Not long ago, a CEO of a large company told me he was reluctant to spend the money to upgrade his people's skills. "What if I do," he said, "and then they leave?"..."I see your point," I responded. "But what if you don't-and then they stay?"
5. ...The organizations that are succeeding today are those that have learned how to fail fast-and who do not fail to learn.
6. Here is the question you need to ask yourself: "In order to speed up, am I willing to slow down?"
CONCLUSION
This book ends very powerfully with the author providing a real example of how he used the process from a blank slate to create a successful product with a minimum of overhead. This book not only will re-frame your thinking but you can use it as a tool to re-frame the thinking of those around you. This book is beyond a good idea, beyond an academic's theory... it is a practitioner's framework that can be built upon to drive personal and business success.
Dr. James T. Brown, PMP PE CSP
Author - The Handbook of Program Management
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