Start reading Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life a... on the free Kindle Reading App or on your Kindle in under a minute. Don't have a Kindle? Get your Kindle here.

Deliver to your Kindle or other device

Enter a promotion code
or gift card
 
 
 

Try it free

Sample the beginning of this book for free

Deliver to your Kindle or other device

Sorry, this item is not available in
Image not available for
Color:
Image not available

To view this video download Flash Player

 

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) [Kindle Edition]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (619 customer reviews)

Print List Price: $17.00
Kindle Price: $9.37
You Save: $7.63 (45%)
Sold by: Random House LLC

Free Kindle Reading App Anybody can read Kindle books—even without a Kindle device—with the FREE Kindle app for smartphones, tablets and computers.

To get the free app, enter your email address or mobile phone number.

Formats

Amazon Price New from Used from
Kindle Edition $9.37  
Hardcover $17.25  
Paperback $9.86  
Audible Audio Edition, Unabridged $23.95 or Free with Audible 30-day free trial
Audio, CD, Audiobook, Unabridged $26.63  
Unknown Binding --  
Kindle Delivers
Kindle Delivers
Subscribe to the Kindle Delivers monthly e-mail to find out about each month's Kindle book deals, new releases, editors' picks and more. Learn more (U.S. customers only)

Book Description

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.

“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.


From the Trade Paperback edition.


Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards

From Publishers Weekly

In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.


Product Details

  • File Size: 642 KB
  • Print Length: 369 pages
  • Page Numbers Source ISBN: 1400067936
  • Publisher: Random House; 2 Updated edition (October 14, 2008)
  • Sold by: Random House LLC
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B001FA0W5W
  • Text-to-Speech: Not enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Lending: Not Enabled
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #15,812 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
  •  Would you like to give feedback on images?.


Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
269 of 282 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Good, But A Personal Memoir, Not a Treatise September 13, 2005
Format:Hardcover
REVIEW: This book tends to elicit very strong opinions about its quality (both very good and very bad) so it is important to know which camp you are in before you purchase it or you may be very disappointed. I found that both the very bullish and the very bearish reviews have significant merit. On the plus side Taleb aggressively addresses a topic that many readers will be interested in - randomness in our daily lives. He discusses many important concepts that are not known or at least not very well understood by the general public and experts alike. These include: 1) that uncertainty and luck play a large role in the outcomes of human activities (much more than most people think); 2) that a correlation between two types of events does not necessarily mean that one causes the other; 3) that statistics and the rare random event are poorly understood by almost everyone; 4) that small differences in performance and ability can cause very large differences in the rewards or difficulties that people obtain in life; and 5) that humans are very irrational beings and are not very good at thinking probabilistically and understanding the probabilities of even everyday events rationally. All of these are important points that I commend Taleb for bringing to our attention.

However, there are significant drawbacks to this book, which to some readers will make the book significantly unenjoyable or even impossible to read. While it did not significantly bother me, Taleb does have an attitude or style which at times tends to the snobbish. The author repeatedly reminds readers that he is well traveled, is a "voracious" reader, pursues his exercise routines "assiduously", and is from upper class Mediterranean roots.
Read more ›
Was this review helpful to you?
222 of 241 people found the following review helpful
By A Customer
Format:Hardcover
Anyone who holds any doubts in regards to the validity of this book must read Edward Chancellor's 'Devil Take the Hindmost,' which provides a history of financial markets from the dawn of the Roman Empire up to now. After reading such a sweeping historical account, one sees the financial markets for exactly what they have always been: one vast bubble machine where people have even invested in, according to Chancellor, a company that refused to explain anything about what it did but simply assured the investors that it had a great idea for making money. Sounds rather similar to some of the dot coms in recent years. Through a compliation of both antecdotes and thoughts, Taleb provides an explanation as to why the markets work in this way, why so many fail to realize this, and how these issues are mirrored in our everyday lives. He addresses many issues that everyone should understand in order to view the world in a realistic manner. Evolution is not a one way road to nirvana but rather the process through which those adapted to the current situation fare better, and they may not be best adopted when things change. When judging the validity of any strategy in business or in life one must consider that the winners write the history books; you can only talk to survivors of war but that certainly doesn't mean that everyone survives it. When deducing anything from viewing a sample you must consider the forces that created that sample: should you consider yourself unintelligent because you're behind your classmates at a top law school? Are a good outcome and a good decision the same thing, and likewise for a bad outcome and a bad decision? And the list goes on. Read more ›
Was this review helpful to you?
178 of 196 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Intiguing but ultimately unsatisfying April 30, 2002
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
I bought FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS after reading the Malcolm Gladwell profile on Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the April issue of the New Yorker. Like others who have reviewed this book, I found that Gladwell captured the most important details of Taleb's thoughts in a shorter, more entertaining way. However, I thought that this book can be a worthwhile read for those with a passion for this type of book.
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS is an introduction to the difficulties human beings have at reasoning around probability. Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events. Taleb discusses the results of this embedded flaw in human reasoning in three areas.
In part 1, Taleb discusses impacts of `rare events' on both financial markets and on human history. Taleb argues we should beware seemingly successful strategies if they are not proven by the test of history. In particular, we should examine human history in the long term for general trends and treat skeptically claims that humanity has reached `the end of history' or `a new economic model' where the old, proven rules do not apply.
In part 2, Taleb discusses the `survivor effect', or mistaking success based on luck for success based on skill. In particular, Taleb warns against judging a strategy by its actual results. Instead, we should judge strategies based upon a sum of all possible outcomes.
In part 3, Taleb briefly discusses `tricks' he has developed to try and derail his flawed, ingrained, statistical reasoning and live a rational and, to a great degree, classical life based upon a good understanding of the effect of randomness on our lives.
Read more ›
Was this review helpful to you?
Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Just finished my 2nd read of Fooled by Randomness
I am not an expert in randomness, therefore my review here should not be taken with much significance. Read more
Published 2 days ago by M. Tanner
5.0 out of 5 stars YES, great book
YES, great book
Published 13 days ago by Paul
4.0 out of 5 stars Exelent book to better understand the difference between causes and...
Exelent book to better understand the difference between causes and randomness related yo anything that happen in our lifes. Very clever approach ti understad this difference. Read more
Published 14 days ago by Alberto
4.0 out of 5 stars Tough read. But good read.
Nassim Taleb is not a good writer. But he has things to say that are important to understand. Read the book if you don't want to be fooled by randomness.
Published 15 days ago by Suman Srivastava
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
interesting
Published 15 days ago by Mary J. Bucheleres
5.0 out of 5 stars I love this book and any manager leading a business in ...
Smartest book in a decade by NY Times. I love this book and any manager leading a business in a world of uncertainty should pick up a copy. Read more
Published 16 days ago by rock_holland
2.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing
While the main concept of the book (don't be fooled by the noise) is interesting, the text rambles on in parts. Read more
Published 17 days ago by Kennedy
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Some books you read once... some book makes you feel you didn't get enough. Read..Re-read...continuing.
Published 22 days ago by Ranjan
5.0 out of 5 stars painfully direct and wonderfully poetic
Nnt is one of my favorite authors, delivering a sharp and raw message of our flaws in beautiful prose.
A must read!
Published 22 days ago by Noaa Avital
4.0 out of 5 stars Taleb is a fascinating author and I really like his approach to...
Taleb is a fascinating author and I really like his approach to strategy. I did find this book a little repetitive and felt like he jumped around a bit.
Published 1 month ago by Christian H.
Search Customer Reviews
Search these reviews only

More About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent two decades as a trader and risk taker before becoming a full-time essayist and scholar focusing on practical, philosophical and mathematical problems with chance, luck, and probability. His focus in on how different systems handle disorder.

Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering, but he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés.

He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published close to 40 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto. Taleb's books have more than 100 translations in 35 languages.

Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.

""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)

A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times

"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ

What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?


Forums

There are no discussions about this product yet.
Be the first to discuss this product with the community.
Start a new discussion
Topic:
First post:
Prompts for sign-in
 


Look for Similar Items by Category