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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) Paperback – August 23, 2005
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From Publishers Weekly
Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
More About the Author
He now spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés. In addition to his life as a trader he spend several years as an academic researcher ( Distinguished Professor at New York University's School of Engineering, Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst).
He is the author of the Incerto (latin for uncertainty), accessible in any order (Antifragile, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, and Fooled by Randomness) plus a freely available technical version, Silent Risk. Taleb has also published close to 45 academic and scholarly papers as a backup, technical footnotes to the Incerto in topics ranging from Statistical Physics to International affairs. Taleb's books have more than 100 translations in 35 languages.
Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
""Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple." La Tribune (Paris)
A giant of Mediterranean thought ... Now the hottest thinker in the world", London Times
"The most prophetic voice of all" GQ
Top Customer Reviews
However, there are significant drawbacks to this book, which to some readers will make the book significantly unenjoyable or even impossible to read. While it did not significantly bother me, Taleb does have an attitude or style which at times tends to the snobbish. The author repeatedly reminds readers that he is well traveled, is a "voracious" reader, pursues his exercise routines "assiduously", and is from upper class Mediterranean roots.Read more ›
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS is an introduction to the difficulties human beings have at reasoning around probability. Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events. Taleb discusses the results of this embedded flaw in human reasoning in three areas.
In part 1, Taleb discusses impacts of `rare events' on both financial markets and on human history. Taleb argues we should beware seemingly successful strategies if they are not proven by the test of history. In particular, we should examine human history in the long term for general trends and treat skeptically claims that humanity has reached `the end of history' or `a new economic model' where the old, proven rules do not apply.
In part 2, Taleb discusses the `survivor effect', or mistaking success based on luck for success based on skill. In particular, Taleb warns against judging a strategy by its actual results. Instead, we should judge strategies based upon a sum of all possible outcomes.
In part 3, Taleb briefly discusses `tricks' he has developed to try and derail his flawed, ingrained, statistical reasoning and live a rational and, to a great degree, classical life based upon a good understanding of the effect of randomness on our lives.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Would give this book 10 stars if I was able. Has completely changed the way I trade, as well as how I think about life in general...Published 2 days ago by Dave
Daoism said that good deed not lead to good result, this book proved this point. Why to be a good man? Just for you like to be a good man. Read morePublished 4 days ago by Wo Wei Yan
Changed the world as I knew it... Can not adequately express the importance of this book, and subsequent books in the trilogy (The Black Swan, and Antifragile). Read morePublished 5 days ago by Cincy Kid
That should be the books title. While the material within is interesting and insightful, the author is long winded, and seems to think his points the better by making them as... Read morePublished 19 days ago by Kimberly Amundson
Extremely insightful book, and delightful to read as well. I debated on whether to choose this item or The Black Swan as my first Taleb book - after reading many opinions and... Read morePublished 26 days ago by Laura
A Great Read. Makes you truly wonder how anyone survive in this day and age relying on a hunk of meat programmed for the savanna. Alas, fallible humans, overflowing with biases.Published 1 month ago by Sheng